Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models for Predicting Concurrent Percept-driven Robot Behavior

This article develops Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models (PHAMs), a realistic causal model for predicting the behavior generated by modern percept-driven robot plans. PHAMs represent aspects of robot behavior that cannot be represented by most action models used in AI planning: the temporal structure of continuous control processes, their non-deterministic effects, several modes of their interferences, and the achievement of triggering conditions in closed-loop robot plans. The main contributions of this article are: (1) PHAMs, a model of concurrent percept-driven behavior, its formalization, and proofs that the model generates probably, qualitatively accurate predictions; and (2) a resource-efficient inference method for PHAMs based on sampling projections from probabilistic action models and state descriptions. We show how PHAMs can be applied to planning the course of action of an autonomous robot office courier based on analytical and experimental results

Assistive Planning in Complex, Dynamic Environments: a Probabilistic Approach

We explore the probabilistic foundations of shared control in complex dynamic environments. In order to do this, we formulate shared control as a random process and describe the joint distribution that governs its behavior. For tractability, we model the relationships between the operator, autonomy, and crowd as an undirected graphical model. Further, we introduce an interaction function between the operator and the robot, that we call "agreeability"; in combination with the methods developed in~\cite{trautman-ijrr-2015}, we extend a cooperative collision avoidance autonomy to shared control. We therefore quantify the notion of simultaneously optimizing over agreeability (between the operator and autonomy), and safety and efficiency in crowded environments. We show that for a particular form of interaction function between the autonomy and the operator, linear blending is recovered exactly. Additionally, to recover linear blending, unimodal restrictions must be placed on the models describing the operator and the autonomy. In turn, these restrictions raise questions about the flexibility and applicability of the linear blending framework. Additionally, we present an extension of linear blending called "operator biased linear trajectory blending" (which formalizes some recent approaches in linear blending such as~\cite{dragan-ijrr-2013}) and show that not only is this also a restrictive special case of our probabilistic approach, but more importantly, is statistically unsound, and thus, mathematically, unsuitable for implementation. Instead, we suggest a statistically principled approach that guarantees data is used in a consistent manner, and show how this alternative approach converges to the full probabilistic framework. We conclude by proving that, in general, linear blending is suboptimal with respect to the joint metric of agreeability, safety, and efficiency

Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Role Playing Learning for Socially Concomitant Mobile Robot Navigation

In this paper, we present the Role Playing Learning (RPL) scheme for a mobile robot to navigate socially with its human companion in populated environments. Neural networks (NN) are constructed to parameterize a stochastic policy that directly maps sensory data collected by the robot to its velocity outputs, while respecting a set of social norms. An efficient simulative learning environment is built with maps and pedestrians trajectories collected from a number of real-world crowd data sets. In each learning iteration, a robot equipped with the NN policy is created virtually in the learning environment to play itself as a companied pedestrian and navigate towards a goal in a socially concomitant manner. Thus, we call this process Role Playing Learning, which is formulated under a reinforcement learning (RL) framework. The NN policy is optimized end-to-end using Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO), with consideration of the imperfectness of robot's sensor measurements. Simulative and experimental results are provided to demonstrate the efficacy and superiority of our method

An Expressive Language and Efficient Execution System for Software Agents

Software agents can be used to automate many of the tedious, time-consuming information processing tasks that humans currently have to complete manually. However, to do so, agent plans must be capable of representing the myriad of actions and control flows required to perform those tasks. In addition, since these tasks can require integrating multiple sources of remote information ? typically, a slow, I/O-bound process ? it is desirable to make execution as efficient as possible. To address both of these needs, we present a flexible software agent plan language and a highly parallel execution system that enable the efficient execution of expressive agent plans. The plan language allows complex tasks to be more easily expressed by providing a variety of operators for flexibly processing the data as well as supporting subplans (for modularity) and recursion (for indeterminate looping). The executor is based on a streaming dataflow model of execution to maximize the amount of operator and data parallelism possible at runtime. We have implemented both the language and executor in a system called THESEUS. Our results from testing THESEUS show that streaming dataflow execution can yield significant speedups over both traditional serial (von Neumann) as well as non-streaming dataflow-style execution that existing software and robot agent execution systems currently support. In addition, we show how plans written in the language we present can represent certain types of subtasks that cannot be accomplished using the languages supported by network query engines. Finally, we demonstrate that the increased expressivity of our plan language does not hamper performance; specifically, we show how data can be integrated from multiple remote sources just as efficiently using our architecture as is possible with a state-of-the-art streaming-dataflow network query engine