576 research outputs found
Managing Risk of Bidding in Display Advertising
In this paper, we deal with the uncertainty of bidding for display
advertising. Similar to the financial market trading, real-time bidding (RTB)
based display advertising employs an auction mechanism to automate the
impression level media buying; and running a campaign is no different than an
investment of acquiring new customers in return for obtaining additional
converted sales. Thus, how to optimally bid on an ad impression to drive the
profit and return-on-investment becomes essential. However, the large
randomness of the user behaviors and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction
competition may result in a significant risk from the campaign performance
estimation. In this paper, we explicitly model the uncertainty of user
click-through rate estimation and auction competition to capture the risk. We
borrow an idea from finance and derive the value at risk for each ad display
opportunity. Our formulation results in two risk-aware bidding strategies that
penalize risky ad impressions and focus more on the ones with higher expected
return and lower risk. The empirical study on real-world data demonstrates the
effectiveness of our proposed risk-aware bidding strategies: yielding profit
gains of 15.4% in offline experiments and up to 17.5% in an online A/B test on
a commercial RTB platform over the widely applied bidding strategies
An Efficient Bandit Algorithm for Realtime Multivariate Optimization
Optimization is commonly employed to determine the content of web pages, such
as to maximize conversions on landing pages or click-through rates on search
engine result pages. Often the layout of these pages can be decoupled into
several separate decisions. For example, the composition of a landing page may
involve deciding which image to show, which wording to use, what color
background to display, etc. Such optimization is a combinatorial problem over
an exponentially large decision space. Randomized experiments do not scale well
to this setting, and therefore, in practice, one is typically limited to
optimizing a single aspect of a web page at a time. This represents a missed
opportunity in both the speed of experimentation and the exploitation of
possible interactions between layout decisions.
Here we focus on multivariate optimization of interactive web pages. We
formulate an approach where the possible interactions between different
components of the page are modeled explicitly. We apply bandit methodology to
explore the layout space efficiently and use hill-climbing to select optimal
content in realtime. Our algorithm also extends to contextualization and
personalization of layout selection. Simulation results show the suitability of
our approach to large decision spaces with strong interactions between content.
We further apply our algorithm to optimize a message that promotes adoption of
an Amazon service. After only a single week of online optimization, we saw a
21% conversion increase compared to the median layout. Our technique is
currently being deployed to optimize content across several locations at
Amazon.com.Comment: KDD'17 Audience Appreciation Awar
An Ensemble-based Approach to Click-Through Rate Prediction for Promoted Listings at Etsy
Etsy is a global marketplace where people across the world connect to make,
buy and sell unique goods. Sellers at Etsy can promote their product listings
via advertising campaigns similar to traditional sponsored search ads.
Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction is an integral part of online search
advertising systems where it is utilized as an input to auctions which
determine the final ranking of promoted listings to a particular user for each
query. In this paper, we provide a holistic view of Etsy's promoted listings'
CTR prediction system and propose an ensemble learning approach which is based
on historical or behavioral signals for older listings as well as content-based
features for new listings. We obtain representations from texts and images by
utilizing state-of-the-art deep learning techniques and employ multimodal
learning to combine these different signals. We compare the system to
non-trivial baselines on a large-scale real world dataset from Etsy,
demonstrating the effectiveness of the model and strong correlations between
offline experiments and online performance. The paper is also the first
technical overview to this kind of product in e-commerce context
Hybrid Choice Models: Progress and Challenges
We discuss the development of predictive choice models that go beyond the random utility model in its narrowest formulation. Such approaches incorporate several elements of cognitive process that have been identified as important to the choice process, including strong dependence on history and context, perception formation, and latent constraints. A flexible and practical hybrid choice model is presented that integrates many types of discrete choice modeling methods, draws on different types of data, and allows for flexible disturbances and explicit modeling of latent psychological explanatory variables, heterogeneity, and latent segmentation. Both progress and challenges related to the development of the hybrid choice model are presented.
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