A Tool to Optimize the Initial Distribution of Hydrogen Filling Stations

An important barrier towards the introduction of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) running on hydrogen is the lack of widespread refueling infrastructure. The niche of buses for public transport, taxis and deliverers with a local application area might not be large enough to generate the reductions of FCV costs that are necessary for a general technology switch. Thus, fuel availability at trunk roads probably plays a crucial role in generating demand for FCVs also from private consumers. In this paper we assume that consumers are more likely to consider buying a FCV the more frequently they are exposed to hydrogen refueling opportunities on long distant trips. We introduce a tool to test different small scale initial distributions of hydrogen outlets within the German trunk road system for their potential success to generate a large scale adoption of FCVs. The tool makes use of agent based trip modeling and Geographic Information System (GIS) supported spatial modeling. We demonstrate its potentials by testing a ring shaped distribution of hydrogen outlets at highway filling stations. We find that the structure of an optimized initial distribution of filling stations depends on what drivers consider a sufficiently small distance between refueling opportunities.Agent based modeling, Alternative fueled vehicles, Hydrogen, Fuel Cells

Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems

Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE-electric hybrids. Adoption dynamics for alternative vehicles are complex due to the enormous size and importance of the auto industry and vehicle fleet. Diffusion of alternative vehicles is both enabled and constrained by powerful positive feedbacks arising from scale and scope economies, R&D, learning by doing, driver experience, word of mouth, and complementary resources such as fueling infrastructure. We describe a dynamic model of the diffusion and competition among alternative fuel vehicles, including the coevolution of the fleet, technology, driver behavior, and complementary resources. Here we focus on the generation of consumer awareness of alternatives through feedback from driving experience, word of mouth and marketing, with a reduced form treatment of network effects and other positive feedbacks (which we treat in other papers). We demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on economic and behavioral parameters. We show that word of mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Nevertheless, marketing and subsidies for alternatives to ICE must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining. Expanding the model boundary to include endogenous learning, technological spillovers and spatial coevolution of fueling infrastructure adds additional feedbacks that further suppress the diffusion of alternative vehicles

A Good Opening: The Key to Make the Most of Unilateral Climate Action

In this paper we argue that when a subgroup of countries cooperate on emission reduction, the optimal response of non-signatory countries reflects the interaction between three potentially opposing factors, the incentive to free-ride on the benefits of cooperation, the incentive to expand the demand of fossil fuels, and the incentive to adopt cleaner technologies introduced by the coalition. Using an Integrated Assessment Model with a game theoretic structure we find that cost-benefit considerations would lead OECD countries to undertake a moderate, but increasing abatement effort (in line with the pledges subscribed in Copenhagen). Even if emission reductions are moderate, OECD countries find it optimal to allocate part of their resources to energy R&D and investments in cleaner technologies. International spillovers of knowledge and technology diffusion then lead to the deployment of these technologies in non-signatory countries as well, reducing their emissions. When the OECD group follows more ambitious targets, such as 2050 emissions that are 50% below 2005 levels, the benefits of technology externalities do not compensate the incentives deriving from the lower fossil fuels prices. This suggests that, when choosing their unilateral climate objective, cooperating countries should take into account the possibility to induce a virtuous behaviour in non-signatory countries. By looking at a two-phase negotiation set-up, we find that free-riding incentives spurred by more ambitious targets can be mitigated by means of credible commitments for developing countries in the second phase, as they would reduce lock-in in carbon intensive technologies.Technology Spillovers, Climate Change, Partial Cooperation

The Extended Energy-Systems ERIS Model: An Overview

This report describes the extensions to the "bottom-up" energy-systems ERIS (Energy Research and Investment Strategies) model carried out by the authors at IIASA-ECS for, among others, the EC-Sponsored SAPIENTIA and MINIMA-SUD projects. The original version of the ERIS model was developed as a joint effort between the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) project at IIASA and the Energy Economics Group of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in Switzerland during the EC-sponsored TEEM and SAPIENT projects, in which it was mainly used to examine issues related to the endogenization of mechanisms of technological change. The extension of the ERIS model developed at IIASA-ECS include: the implementation of a clusters approach to technology learning, the inclusion of emissions and marginal abatement curves for two main non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)), the inclusion of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, the incorporation of a transportation sector with emphasis on the passenger car sub-sector, the inclusion of fuel production technologies (i.e. hydrogen, alcohol, Fischer-Tropsch liquids, etc.) as well as geological and terrestrial CO2 storage and a calibration to the year 2000 energy statistics

A Tale of Two Market Failures: Technology and Environmental Policy

Market failures associated with environmental pollution interact with market failures associated with the innovation and diffusion of new technologies. These combined market failures provide a strong rationale for a portfolio of public policies that foster emissions reduction as well as the development and adoption of environmentally beneficial technology. Both theory and empirical evidence suggest that the rate and direction of technological advance is influenced by market and regulatory incentives, and can be cost-effectively harnessed through the use of economicincentive based policy. In the presence of weak or nonexistent environmental policies, investments in the development and diffusion of new environmentally beneficial technologies are very likely to be less than would be socially desirable. Positive knowledge and adoption spillovers and information problems can further weaken innovation incentives. While environmental technology policy is fraught with difficulties, a long-term view suggests a strategy of experimenting with policy approaches and systematically evaluating their success.technology, research and development, environment, externality, policy

Technological change in economic models of environmental policy: a survey

This paper provides an overview of the treatment of technological change in economic models of environmental policy. Numerous economic modeling studies have confirmed the sensitivity of mid- and long-run climate change mitigation cost and benefit projections to assumptions about technology costs. In general, technical progress is considered to be a noneconomic, exogenous variable in global climate change modeling. However, there is overwhelming evidence that technological change is not an exogenous variable but to an important degree endogenous, induced by needs and pressures. Hence, some environmenteconomy models treat technological change as endogenous, responding to socio-economic variables. Three main elements in models of technological innovation are: (i) corporate investment in research and development, (ii) spillovers from R&D, and (iii) technology learning, especially learning-by-doing. The incorporation of induced technological change in different types of environmental-economic models tends to reduce the costs of environmental policy, accelerates abatement and may lead to positive spillover and negative leakage. --exogenous technological change,induced technological change,environmenteconomy models

Incrementalism of environmental innovations versus paradigmatic change: A comparative study of the automotive and chemical industries

Environmental innovations; technological regime; technological paradigm; environmental regulation; automotive industry; green chemistry

Impact Assessment of Energy-related Policy Instruments on Climate Change and Security of Energy Supply

This report assesses the impact of several representative policy instruments on sustainability indicators in the areas of climate change and security of energy supply, two important dimensions of sustainable development addressed in the MINIMA-SUD project sponsored by the European Commission (DG Research). Specifically, we pay attention to the effectiveness of these policy instruments in stimulating technological change that could lead to a more secure and climate-benign global energy system in the long-term future. For such purpose, we examine the incremental change in a number of sustainability indicators when the policy instrument is applied relative to the costs of application of the instrument. This measure is referred to as the "impact" of the policy instrument. We concentrate our attention on the following policy instruments: Energyrelated demonstration and deployment (D&D) programs and a carbon-equivalent (C-eq) tax. Impact assessment of policy instruments is an important element of the policy development process of the European Commission, among others. It represents a systematic and careful attempt to shed light on the possible effects of policy proposals. As such, it serves as an aid to the decision-making process. Specifically, impact assessment of policy instruments plays an important role in the implementation of the sustainable-development strategy of the European Commission. Although the numerical results presented here are specific to our particular analysis and highly dependent on the characteristics and limitations of our modeling tools, we want to offer this analysis as a contribution towards the development of more comprehensive methodologies for the assessment of impacts of policy instruments in the context of the quest towards a sustainable global energy system