East Midlands life and work survey 2003: technical report

Technical report for the 2003 East Midlands regional household survey, 'The Life and Work Survey', undertaken to inform a range of partner organisations, including emda and the Learning and Skills Council. A core sample of 14,000 was achieved across the East Midlands region with boosts in Leicestershire and Derbyshire of 2,520 and 450 respectively

Demands of People with Disabilities and Empowerment of Resilient Strategies

The objective of the research is to identify the resilient strategies in people with disabilities of the Technical University of Manabí. The paper presents a conceptual analysis associated with disability in university students. Some points of view related to the strategies of attention to diversity are exposed. A conceptual analysis related to resilience is provided. The situation of disabled students who are enrolled in the different careers of the Technical University of Manabí is addressed, specifying the type of disability they have. An analysis of the population is made for the study and the selection of the sample. The data related to the measurement of resilience is exposed to disabled students, for which the method developed by (Saavedra & Villalta, 2008) was used, consisting of 60 items, divided into 12 specific factors of resilience. Finally, a vision related to the resilience strategy demanded by disabled students of the Technical University of Manabí is offered

East Midlands life and work survey 2003: themed summary report - social capital and active citizenship

Themed report from the 2003 East Midlands regional household survey, 'The Life and Work Survey', undertaken to inform a range of partner organisations, including emda and the Learning and Skills Council. Themed report summarises findings from a number of questions designed to examine social capital and active citizenship, such as involvement in community activities

Recursive Portfolio Selection with Decision Trees

A great proportion of stock dynamics can be explained using publicly available information. The relationship between dynamics and public information may be of nonlinear character. In this paper we offer an approach to stock picking by employing so-called decision trees and applying them to XETRA DAX stocks. Using a set of fundamental and technical variables, stocks are classified into three groups according to the proposed position: long, short or neutral. More precisely, by assessing the current state of a company, which is represented by fundamental variables and current market situation, well reflected by technical variables, it is possible to suggest if the current market value of a company is underestimated, overestimated or the stock is fairly priced. The performance of the model over the observed period suggests that XETRA DAX stock returns can adequately be predicted by publicly available economic data. Another conclusion of this study is that the implied volatility variable, when included into the training sample, boosts the predictive power of the model significantly.CART, decision trees in finance, nonlinear decision rules, asset management, portfolio optimisation

East Midlands life and work survey 2003: regional summary report - learning and skills council area

Summary report from the 2003 East Midlands regional household survey, 'The Life and Work Survey', undertaken to inform a range of partner organisations, including emda and the Learning and Skills Council. Presents findings for the five local Learning and Skills Council areas, including additional analysis for Leicestershire and Derbyshire - which both sponsored sample boosts. Explores themes around employment, enterprise, skills demand, job satisfaction and security, participation in training and learning, health, social capital and community issues, and demographic characteristics

Optimal investment: bounds and heuristics

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Incisive Financial Publishing via http://www.risk.net/journal-of-computational-finance/technical-paper/2432431/optimal-investment-bounds-and-heuristicsHigh-dimensional optimal investment/consumption problems are hard to deal with, not least because of the difficulty in characterizing the value function. This paper tries to offer ways to determine an approximately optimal policy, and to estimate its performance using duality methods. Though the value function is required as a concept in developing the theory, it plays no part in the computation, nor is it necessary to have global knowledge of the policy; it is enough to determine the policy along the realized sample path

East Midlands life and work survey 2003: themed summary report - business start up

Themed report from the 2003 East Midlands regional household survey, 'The Life and Work Survey', undertaken to inform a range of partner organisations, including emda and the Learning and Skills Council. Themed report summarises findings on questions around enterprise, the characteristics of entrepreneurs and barriers to business start-up

PROFITABILITY AND MARKET STABILITY: FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL TRADING RULES

Traders in this simulation of an asset market endogenously select from available information sources in order to maximize expected profits. The information options include two noisy signals of future dividends (the fundamentals) and a simple trend following technical trading rule. Traders use the information for constructing a portfolio to hold through to the next period, consisting of a risky and a risk free asset . Due to free riding on information conveyed in the market price, the technical trading rule proves to be profitable when the market is near the fundamental equilibrium. Popularity of the technical trading rule alters the price dynamics and can move the price away from this equilibrium.The tradersÆ selection of an information source is modeled as a randomized discrete choice. The greater the expected relative benefit of an information source, the greater the probability of its selection. The intensity of choice parameter sets the tradersÆ sensitivity to expected benefits and plays a major role in determining market dynamics. In forming expected benefits of the fundamental information, traders are forward looking using current market observables. The technical trading rule is evaluated based on past performance. Once traders have selected an information source, demand for the risky asset is aggregated within each information source. A price is determined to clear the market.Depending on the intensity of choice setting, computer simulations of the market can result in growth in the popularity of the technical trading rule following a series of correct signals. The larger population of technical traders causes distortions in the market price which may lead to price bubbles. The price bubble contributes to the popularity of the trading rule while simultaneously moving the market further from the fundamental equilibrium. The eventual collapse of the bubble creates windfall profits for the remaining population of fundamental traders while the losses reduce the popularity of the technical trading rule. The market returns to the fundamental equilibrium allowing the cycle to begin again.Two self-fulfilling regimes exist, each resulting in different market dynamics. If traders believe that the distortionary impact the technical traders excerpt on the market price will continue, then the decision concerning information selection and the trading behavior of those who choose to rely on the fundamental information both serve to perpetuate the trading rule and its influence on price. Alternately, if the traders believe that any distortions will soon dissipate, then traders will be attracted to fundamental information when they suspect a deviation from fundamentals. Those selecting to use fundamental information will trade aggressively to exploit the distortion. These behaviors forces the price back towards the fundamental equilibrium. The market has a decreased tendency to develop large price bubbles in the latter regime, but smaller high frequency price oscillations continue. Current efforts include endogenizing the tradersÆ beliefs about which regime is in effect.A second observation addresses the evolutionary development of successful technical trading rules. In a market consisting exclusively of fundamental traders, the only type of technical trading rule which is able to exploit price patterns are trend following rules such as those initially examined. The distortions in price caused by the popularity of a trend following rule creates an environment in which different categories of rules may be useful. A price-dividend rule is examined. Though useless when the market is exclusively fundamental traders, the price dividend rule proves profitable in the market experiencing the distortions caused by the trend following rules.

East Midlands life and work survey 2003: themed summary report - ethnicity

Themed report from the 2003 East Midlands regional household survey, 'The Life and Work Survey', undertaken to inform a range of partner organisations, including emda and the Learning and Skills Council. Themed report summarises findings on the composition of survey respondents by ethnic group, investigating the role of ethnicity in labour market experiences, participation in training and learning, qualifications, ICT take-up, and community issues