Scalable Population Synthesis with Deep Generative Modeling

Population synthesis is concerned with the generation of synthetic yet realistic representations of populations. It is a fundamental problem in the modeling of transport where the synthetic populations of micro-agents represent a key input to most agent-based models. In this paper, a new methodological framework for how to 'grow' pools of micro-agents is presented. The model framework adopts a deep generative modeling approach from machine learning based on a Variational Autoencoder (VAE). Compared to the previous population synthesis approaches, including Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), Gibbs sampling and traditional generative models such as Bayesian Networks or Hidden Markov Models, the proposed method allows fitting the full joint distribution for high dimensions. The proposed methodology is compared with a conventional Gibbs sampler and a Bayesian Network by using a large-scale Danish trip diary. It is shown that, while these two methods outperform the VAE in the low-dimensional case, they both suffer from scalability issues when the number of modeled attributes increases. It is also shown that the Gibbs sampler essentially replicates the agents from the original sample when the required conditional distributions are estimated as frequency tables. In contrast, the VAE allows addressing the problem of sampling zeros by generating agents that are virtually different from those in the original data but have similar statistical properties. The presented approach can support agent-based modeling at all levels by enabling richer synthetic populations with smaller zones and more detailed individual characteristics.Comment: 27 pages, 15 figures, 4 table

Discriminative conditional restricted Boltzmann machine for discrete choice and latent variable modelling

Conventional methods of estimating latent behaviour generally use attitudinal questions which are subjective and these survey questions may not always be available. We hypothesize that an alternative approach can be used for latent variable estimation through an undirected graphical models. For instance, non-parametric artificial neural networks. In this study, we explore the use of generative non-parametric modelling methods to estimate latent variables from prior choice distribution without the conventional use of measurement indicators. A restricted Boltzmann machine is used to represent latent behaviour factors by analyzing the relationship information between the observed choices and explanatory variables. The algorithm is adapted for latent behaviour analysis in discrete choice scenario and we use a graphical approach to evaluate and understand the semantic meaning from estimated parameter vector values. We illustrate our methodology on a financial instrument choice dataset and perform statistical analysis on parameter sensitivity and stability. Our findings show that through non-parametric statistical tests, we can extract useful latent information on the behaviour of latent constructs through machine learning methods and present strong and significant influence on the choice process. Furthermore, our modelling framework shows robustness in input variability through sampling and validation