Beyond Covariation: Cues to Causal Structure

Causal induction has two components: learning about the structure of causal models and learning about causal strength and other quantitative parameters. This chapter argues for several interconnected theses. First, people represent causal knowledge qualitatively, in terms of causal structure; quantitative knowledge is derivative. Second, people use a variety of cues to infer causal structure aside from statistical data (e.g. temporal order, intervention, coherence with prior knowledge). Third, once a structural model is hypothesized, subsequent statistical data are used to confirm, refute, or elaborate the model. Fourth, people are limited in the number and complexity of causal models that they can hold in mind to test, but they can separately learn and then integrate simple models, and revise models by adding and removing single links. Finally, current computational models of learning need further development before they can be applied to human learning

Insurance: an R-Program to Model Insurance Data

Data sets from car insurance companies often have a high-dimensional complex dependency structure. The use of classical statistical methods such as generalized linear models or Tweedie?s compound Poisson model can yield problems in this case. Christmann (2004) proposed a general approach to model the pure premium by exploiting characteristic features of such data sets. In this paper we describe a program to use this approach based on a combination of multinomial logistic regression and [epsilon]-support vector regression from modern statistical machine learning. --Claim size,insurance tariff,logistic regression,statistical machine learning,support vector regression

Improving Malware Detection Accuracy by Extracting Icon Information

Detecting PE malware files is now commonly approached using statistical and machine learning models. While these models commonly use features extracted from the structure of PE files, we propose that icons from these files can also help better predict malware. We propose an innovative machine learning approach to extract information from icons. Our proposed approach consists of two steps: 1) extracting icon features using summary statics, histogram of gradients (HOG), and a convolutional autoencoder, 2) clustering icons based on the extracted icon features. Using publicly available data and by using machine learning experiments, we show our proposed icon clusters significantly boost the efficacy of malware prediction models. In particular, our experiments show an average accuracy increase of 10% when icon clusters are used in the prediction model.Comment: Full version. IEEE MIPR 201

Statistical learnability of nuclear masses

After more than 80 years from the seminal work of Weizs\"acker and the liquid drop model of the atomic nucleus, deviations from experiments of mass models ($\sim$ MeV) are orders of magnitude larger than experimental errors ($\lesssim$ keV). Predicting the mass of atomic nuclei with precision is extremely challenging. This is due to the non--trivial many--body interplay of protons and neutrons in nuclei, and the complex nature of the nuclear strong force. Statistical theory of learning will be used to provide bounds to the prediction errors of model trained with a finite data set. These bounds are validated with neural network calculations, and compared with state of the art mass models. Therefore, it will be argued that the nuclear structure models investigating ground state properties explore a system on the limit of the knowledgeable, as defined by the statistical theory of learning

Identifying dynamical systems with bifurcations from noisy partial observation

Dynamical systems are used to model a variety of phenomena in which the bifurcation structure is a fundamental characteristic. Here we propose a statistical machine-learning approach to derive lowdimensional models that automatically integrate information in noisy time-series data from partial observations. The method is tested using artificial data generated from two cell-cycle control system models that exhibit different bifurcations, and the learned systems are shown to robustly inherit the bifurcation structure.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figure

On Graphical Models via Univariate Exponential Family Distributions

Undirected graphical models, or Markov networks, are a popular class of statistical models, used in a wide variety of applications. Popular instances of this class include Gaussian graphical models and Ising models. In many settings, however, it might not be clear which subclass of graphical models to use, particularly for non-Gaussian and non-categorical data. In this paper, we consider a general sub-class of graphical models where the node-wise conditional distributions arise from exponential families. This allows us to derive multivariate graphical model distributions from univariate exponential family distributions, such as the Poisson, negative binomial, and exponential distributions. Our key contributions include a class of M-estimators to fit these graphical model distributions; and rigorous statistical analysis showing that these M-estimators recover the true graphical model structure exactly, with high probability. We provide examples of genomic and proteomic networks learned via instances of our class of graphical models derived from Poisson and exponential distributions.Comment: Journal of Machine Learning Researc

Structure learning of antiferromagnetic Ising models

In this paper we investigate the computational complexity of learning the graph structure underlying a discrete undirected graphical model from i.i.d. samples. We first observe that the notoriously difficult problem of learning parities with noise can be captured as a special case of learning graphical models. This leads to an unconditional computational lower bound of $\Omega (p^{d/2})$ for learning general graphical models on $p$ nodes of maximum degree $d$, for the class of so-called statistical algorithms recently introduced by Feldman et al (2013). The lower bound suggests that the $O(p^d)$ runtime required to exhaustively search over neighborhoods cannot be significantly improved without restricting the class of models. Aside from structural assumptions on the graph such as it being a tree, hypertree, tree-like, etc., many recent papers on structure learning assume that the model has the correlation decay property. Indeed, focusing on ferromagnetic Ising models, Bento and Montanari (2009) showed that all known low-complexity algorithms fail to learn simple graphs when the interaction strength exceeds a number related to the correlation decay threshold. Our second set of results gives a class of repelling (antiferromagnetic) models that have the opposite behavior: very strong interaction allows efficient learning in time $O(p^2)$. We provide an algorithm whose performance interpolates between $O(p^2)$ and $O(p^{d+2})$ depending on the strength of the repulsion.Comment: 15 pages. NIPS 201