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Learning stationary time series using Gaussian processes with nonparametric kernels
String and Membrane Gaussian Processes
In this paper we introduce a novel framework for making exact nonparametric
Bayesian inference on latent functions, that is particularly suitable for Big
Data tasks. Firstly, we introduce a class of stochastic processes we refer to
as string Gaussian processes (string GPs), which are not to be mistaken for
Gaussian processes operating on text. We construct string GPs so that their
finite-dimensional marginals exhibit suitable local conditional independence
structures, which allow for scalable, distributed, and flexible nonparametric
Bayesian inference, without resorting to approximations, and while ensuring
some mild global regularity constraints. Furthermore, string GP priors
naturally cope with heterogeneous input data, and the gradient of the learned
latent function is readily available for explanatory analysis. Secondly, we
provide some theoretical results relating our approach to the standard GP
paradigm. In particular, we prove that some string GPs are Gaussian processes,
which provides a complementary global perspective on our framework. Finally, we
derive a scalable and distributed MCMC scheme for supervised learning tasks
under string GP priors. The proposed MCMC scheme has computational time
complexity and memory requirement , where
is the data size and the dimension of the input space. We illustrate the
efficacy of the proposed approach on several synthetic and real-world datasets,
including a dataset with millions input points and attributes.Comment: To appear in the Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR), Volume
1
A Mutually-Dependent Hadamard Kernel for Modelling Latent Variable Couplings
We introduce a novel kernel that models input-dependent couplings across
multiple latent processes. The pairwise joint kernel measures covariance along
inputs and across different latent signals in a mutually-dependent fashion. A
latent correlation Gaussian process (LCGP) model combines these non-stationary
latent components into multiple outputs by an input-dependent mixing matrix.
Probit classification and support for multiple observation sets are derived by
Variational Bayesian inference. Results on several datasets indicate that the
LCGP model can recover the correlations between latent signals while
simultaneously achieving state-of-the-art performance. We highlight the latent
covariances with an EEG classification dataset where latent brain processes and
their couplings simultaneously emerge from the model.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures; accepted to ACML 201
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