Three-dimensional hydrodynamic models coupled with GIS-based neuro-fuzzy classification for assessing environmental vulnerability of marine cage aquaculture

There is considerable opportunity to develop new modelling techniques within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework for the development of sustainable marine cage culture. However, the spatial data sets are often uncertain and incomplete, therefore new spatial models employing “soft computing” methods such as fuzzy logic may be more suitable. The aim of this study is to develop a model using Neuro-fuzzy techniques in a 3D GIS (Arc View 3.2) to predict coastal environmental vulnerability for Atlantic salmon cage aquaculture. A 3D hydrodynamic model (3DMOHID) coupled to a particle-tracking model is applied to study the circulation patterns, dispersion processes and residence time in Mulroy Bay, Co. Donegal Ireland, an Irish fjard (shallow fjordic system), an area of restricted exchange, geometrically complicated with important aquaculture activities. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated by comparison with sea surface and water flow measurements. The model provided spatial and temporal information on circulation, renewal time, helping to determine the influence of winds on circulation patterns and in particular the assessment of the hydrographic conditions with a strong influence on the management of fish cage culture. The particle-tracking model was used to study the transport and flushing processes. Instantaneous massive releases of particles from key boxes are modelled to analyse the ocean-fjord exchange characteristics and, by emulating discharge from finfish cages, to show the behaviour of waste in terms of water circulation and water exchange. In this study the results from the hydrodynamic model have been incorporated into GIS to provide an easy-to-use graphical user interface for 2D (maps), 3D and temporal visualization (animations), for interrogation of results. v Data on the physical environment and aquaculture suitability were derived from a 3- dimensional hydrodynamic model and GIS for incorporation into the final model framework and included mean and maximum current velocities, current flow quiescence time, water column stratification, sediment granulometry, particulate waste dispersion distance, oxygen depletion, water depth, coastal protection zones, and slope. The Neuro-fuzzy classification model NEFCLASS–J, was used to develop learning algorithms to create the structure (rule base) and the parameters (fuzzy sets) of a fuzzy classifier from a set of classified training data. A total of 42 training sites were sampled using stratified random sampling from the GIS raster data layers, and the vulnerability categories for each were manually classified into four categories based on the opinions of experts with field experience and specific knowledge of the environmental problems investigated. The final products, GIS/based Neuro Fuzzy maps were achieved by combining modeled and real environmental parameters relevant to marine fin fish Aquaculture. Environmental vulnerability models, based on Neuro-fuzzy techniques, showed sensitivity to the membership shapes of the fuzzy sets, the nature of the weightings applied to the model rules, and validation techniques used during the learning and validation process. The accuracy of the final classifier selected was R=85.71%, (estimated error value of ±16.5% from Cross Validation, N=10) with a Kappa coefficient of agreement of 81%. Unclassified cells in the whole spatial domain (of 1623 GIS cells) ranged from 0% to 24.18 %. A statistical comparison between vulnerability scores and a significant product of aquaculture waste (nitrogen concentrations in sediment under the salmon cages) showed that the final model gave a good correlation between predicted environmental vi vulnerability and sediment nitrogen levels, highlighting a number of areas with variable sensitivity to aquaculture. Further evaluation and analysis of the quality of the classification was achieved and the applicability of separability indexes was also studied. The inter-class separability estimations were performed on two different training data sets to assess the difficulty of the class separation problem under investigation. The Neuro-fuzzy classifier for a supervised and hard classification of coastal environmental vulnerability has demonstrated an ability to derive an accurate and reliable classification into areas of different levels of environmental vulnerability using a minimal number of training sets. The output will be an environmental spatial model for application in coastal areas intended to facilitate policy decision and to allow input into wider ranging spatial modelling projects, such as coastal zone management systems and effective environmental management of fish cage aquaculture

Flood Early Warning and Risk Modelling

Extreme hydrological phenomena are one of the most common causes of human life loss and material damage as a result of the manifestation of natural hazards around human communities. Climatic changes have directly impacted the temporal distribution of previously known flood events, inducing significantly increased frequency rates as well as manifestation intensities. Understanding the occurrence and manifestation behavior of flood risk as well as identifying the most common time intervals during which there is a greater probability of flood occurrence should be a subject of social priority, given the potential casualties and damage involved. However, considering the numerous flood analysis models that have been currently developed, this phenomenon has not yet been fully comprehended due to the numerous technical challenges that have arisen. These challenges can range from lack of measured field data to difficulties in integrating spatial layers of different scales as well as other potential digital restrictions.The aim of the current book is to promote publications that address flood analysis and apply some of the most novel inundation prediction models, as well as various hydrological risk simulations related to floods, that will enhance the current state of knowledge in the field as well as lead toward a better understanding of flood risk modeling. Furthermore, in the current book, the temporal aspect of flood propagation, including alert times, warning systems, flood time distribution cartographic material, and the numerous parameters involved in flood risk modeling, are discussed

On the development of decision-making systems based on fuzzy models to assess water quality in rivers

There are many situations where a linguistic description of complex phenomena allows better assessments. It is well known that the assessment of water quality continues depending heavily upon subjective judgments and interpretation, despite the huge datasets available nowadays. In that sense, the aim of this study has been to introduce intelligent linguistic operations to analyze databases, and produce self interpretable water quality indicators, which tolerate both imprecision and linguistic uncertainty. Such imprecision typically reflects the ambiguity of human thinking when perceptions need to be expressed. Environmental management concepts such as: "water quality", "level of risk", or "ecological status" are ideally dealt with linguistic variables. In the present Thesis, the flexibility of computing with words offered by fuzzy logic has been considered in these management issues. Firstly, a multipurpose hierarchical water quality index has been designed with fuzzy reasoning. It integrates a wide set of indicators including: organic pollution, nutrients, pathogens, physicochemical macro-variables, and priority micro-contaminants. Likewise, the relative importance of the water quality indicators has been dealt with the analytic hierarchy process, a decision-aiding method. Secondly, a methodology based on a hybrid approach that combines fuzzy inference systems and artificial neural networks has been used to classify ecological status in surface waters according to the Water Framework Directive. This methodology has allowed dealing efficiently with the non-linearity and subjective nature of variables involved in this classification problem. The complexity of inference systems, the appropriate choice of linguistic rules, and the influence of the functions that transform numerical variables into linguistic variables have been studied. Thirdly, a concurrent neuro-fuzzy model based on screening ecological risk assessment has been developed. It has considered the presence of hazardous substances in rivers, and incorporates an innovative ranking and scoring system, based on a self-organizing map, to account for the likely ecological hazards posed by the presence of chemical substances in freshwater ecosystems. Hazard factors are combined with environmental concentrations within fuzzy inference systems to compute ecological risk potentials under linguistic uncertainty. The estimation of ecological risk potentials allows identifying those substances requiring stricter controls and further rigorous risk assessment. Likewise, the aggregation of ecological risk potentials, by means of empirical cumulative distribution functions, has allowed estimating changes in water quality over time. The neuro-fuzzy approach has been validated by comparison with biological monitoring. Finally, a hierarchical fuzzy inference system to deal with sediment based ecological risk assessment has been designed. The study was centered in sediments, since they produce complementary findings to water quality analysis, especially when temporal trends are required. Results from chemical and eco-toxicological analyses have been used as inputs to two parallel inference systems which assess levels of contamination and toxicity, respectively. Results from both inference engines are then treated in a third inference engine which provides a final risk characterization, where the risk is provided in linguistic terms, with their respective degrees of certitude. Inputs to the risk system have been the levels of potentially toxic substances, mainly metals and chlorinated organic compounds, and the toxicity measured with a screening test which uses the photo-luminescent bacteria Vibrio fischeri. The Ebro river basin has been selected as case study, although the methodologies here explained can easily be applied to other rivers. In conclusion, this study has broadly demonstrated that the design of water quality indexes, based on fuzzy logic, emerges as suitable and alternative tool to support decision makers involved in effective sustainable river basin management plans.Existen diversas situaciones en las cuales la descripción en términos lingüísticos de fenómenos complejos permite mejores resultados. A pesar de los volúmenes de información cuantitativa que se manejan actualmente, es bien sabido que la gestión de la calidad del agua todavía obedece a juicios subjetivos y de interpretación de los expertos. Por tanto, el reto en este trabajo ha sido la introducción de operaciones lógicas que computen con palabras durante el análisis de los datos, para la elaboración de indicadores auto-interpretables de calidad del agua, que toleren la imprecisión e incertidumbre lingüística. Esta imprecisión típicamente refleja la ambigüedad del pensamiento humano para expresar percepciones. De allí que las variables lingüísticas se presenten como muy atractivas para el manejo de conceptos de la gestión medioambiental, como es el caso de la "calidad del agua", el "nivel de riesgo" o el "estado ecológico". Por tanto, en la presente Tesis, la flexibilidad de la lógica difusa para computar con palabras se ha adaptado a diversos tópicos en la gestión de la calidad del agua. Primero, se desarrolló un índice jerárquico multipropósito de calidad del agua que se obtuvo mediante razonamiento difuso. El índice integra un extenso grupo de indicadores que incluyen: contaminación orgánica, nutrientes, patógenos, variables macroscópicas, así como sustancias prioritarias micro-contaminantes. La importancia relativa de los indicadores al interior del sistema de inferencia se estimó con un método de análisis de decisiones, llamado proceso jerárquico analítico. En una segunda fase, se utilizó una metodología híbrida que combina los sistemas de inferencia difusos y las redes neuronales artificiales, conocida como neuro-fuzzy, para el estudio de la clasificación del estado ecológico de los ríos, de acuerdo con los lineamientos de la Directiva Marco de Aguas. Esta metodología permitió un manejo adecuado de la no-linealidad y naturaleza subjetiva de las variables involucradas en este problema clasificatorio. Con ella, se estudió la complejidad de los sistemas de inferencia, la selección apropiada de reglas lingüísticas y la influencia de las funciones que transforman las variables numéricas en lingüísticas. En una tercera fase, se desarrolló un modelo conceptual neuro-fuzzy concurrente basado en la metodología de evaluación de riesgo ecológico preliminar. Este modelo consideró la presencia de sustancias peligrosas en los ríos, e incorporó un mapa auto-organizativo para clasificar las sustancias químicas, en términos de su peligrosidad hacia los ecosistemas acuáticos. Con este modelo se estimaron potenciales de riesgo ecológico por combinación de factores de peligrosidad y de concentraciones de las sustancias químicas en el agua. Debido a la alta imprecisión e incertidumbre lingüística, estos potenciales se obtuvieron mediante sistemas de inferencia difusos, y se integraron por medio de distribuciones empíricas acumuladas, con las cuales se pueden analizar cambios espacio-temporales en la calidad del agua. Finalmente, se diseñó un sistema jerárquico de inferencia difuso para la evaluación del riesgo ecológico en sedimentos de ribera. Este sistema estima los grados de contaminación, toxicidad y riesgo en los sedimentos en términos lingüísticos, con sus respectivos niveles de certeza. El sistema se alimenta con información proveniente de análisis químicos, que detectan la presencia de sustancias micro-contaminantes, y de ensayos eco-toxicológicos tipo "screening" que usan la bacteria Vibrio fischeri. Como caso de estudio se seleccionó la cuenca del río Ebro, aunque las metodologías aquí desarrolladas pueden aplicarse fácilmente a otros ríos. En conclusión, este trabajo demuestra ampliamente que el diseño y aplicación de indicadores de calidad de las aguas, basados en la metodología de la lógica difusa, constituyen una herramienta sencilla y útil para los tomadores de decisiones encargados de la gestión sostenible de las cuencas hidrográficas

Computational principles for an autonomous active vision system

Vision research has uncovered computational principles that generalize across species and brain area. However, these biological mechanisms are not frequently implemented in computer vision algorithms. In this thesis, models suitable for application in computer vision were developed to address the benefits of two biologically-inspired computational principles: multi-scale sampling and active, space-variant, vision. The first model investigated the role of multi-scale sampling in motion integration. It is known that receptive fields of different spatial and temporal scales exist in the visual cortex; however, models addressing how this basic principle is exploited by species are sparse and do not adequately explain the data. The developed model showed that the solution to a classical problem in motion integration, the aperture problem, can be reframed as an emergent property of multi-scale sampling facilitated by fast, parallel, bi-directional connections at different spatial resolutions. Humans and most other mammals actively move their eyes to sample a scene (active vision); moreover, the resolution of detail in this sampling process is not uniform across spatial locations (space-variant). It is known that these eye-movements are not simply guided by image saliency, but are also influenced by factors such as spatial attention, scene layout, and task-relevance. However, it is seldom questioned how previous eye movements shape how one learns and recognizes an object in a continuously-learning system. To explore this question, a model (CogEye) was developed that integrates active, space-variant sampling with eye-movement selection (the where visual stream), and object recognition (the what visual stream). The model hypothesizes that a signal from the recognition system helps the where stream select fixation locations that best disambiguate object identity between competing alternatives. The third study used eye-tracking coupled with an object disambiguation psychophysics experiment to validate the second model, CogEye. While humans outperformed the model in recognition accuracy, when the model used information from the recognition pathway to help select future fixations, it was more similar to human eye movement patterns than when the model relied on image saliency alone. Taken together these results show that computational principles in the mammalian visual system can be used to improve computer vision models