Uncertainty and Interpretability Studies in Soft Computing with an Application to Complex Manufacturing Systems

In systems modelling and control theory, the benefits of applying neural networks have been extensively studied. Particularly in manufacturing processes, such as the prediction of mechanical properties of heat treated steels. However, modern industrial processes usually involve large amounts of data and a range of non-linear effects and interactions that might hinder their model interpretation. For example, in steel manufacturing the understanding of complex mechanisms that lead to the mechanical properties which are generated by the heat treatment process is vital. This knowledge is not available via numerical models, therefore an experienced metallurgist estimates the model parameters to obtain the required properties. This human knowledge and perception sometimes can be imprecise leading to a kind of cognitive uncertainty such as vagueness and ambiguity when making decisions. In system classification, this may be translated into a system deficiency - for example, small input changes in system attributes may result in a sudden and inappropriate change for class assignation. In order to address this issue, practitioners and researches have developed systems that are functional equivalent to fuzzy systems and neural networks. Such systems provide a morphology that mimics the human ability of reasoning via the qualitative aspects of fuzzy information rather by its quantitative analysis. Furthermore, these models are able to learn from data sets and to describe the associated interactions and non-linearities in the data. However, in a like-manner to neural networks, a neural fuzzy system may suffer from a lost of interpretability and transparency when making decisions. This is mainly due to the application of adaptive approaches for its parameter identification. Since the RBF-NN can be treated as a fuzzy inference engine, this thesis presents several methodologies that quantify different types of uncertainty and its influence on the model interpretability and transparency of the RBF-NN during its parameter identification. Particularly, three kind of uncertainty sources in relation to the RBF-NN are studied, namely: entropy, fuzziness and ambiguity. First, a methodology based on Granular Computing (GrC), neutrosophic sets and the RBF-NN is presented. The objective of this methodology is to quantify the hesitation produced during the granular compression at the low level of interpretability of the RBF-NN via the use of neutrosophic sets. This study also aims to enhance the disitnguishability and hence the transparency of the initial fuzzy partition. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is tested against a real case study for the prediction of the properties of heat-treated steels. Secondly, a new Interval Type-2 Radial Basis Function Neural Network (IT2-RBF-NN) is introduced as a new modelling framework. The IT2-RBF-NN takes advantage of the functional equivalence between FLSs of type-1 and the RBF-NN so as to construct an Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2-FLS) that is able to deal with linguistic uncertainty and perceptions in the RBF-NN rule base. This gave raise to different combinations when optimising the IT2-RBF-NN parameters. Finally, a twofold study for uncertainty assessment at the high-level of interpretability of the RBF-NN is provided. On the one hand, the first study proposes a new methodology to quantify the a) fuzziness and the b) ambiguity at each RU, and during the formation of the rule base via the use of neutrosophic sets theory. The aim of this methodology is to calculate the associated fuzziness of each rule and then the ambiguity related to each normalised consequence of the fuzzy rules that result from the overlapping and to the choice with one-to-many decisions respectively. On the other hand, a second study proposes a new methodology to quantify the entropy and the fuzziness that come out from the redundancy phenomenon during the parameter identification. To conclude this work, the experimental results obtained through the application of the proposed methodologies for modelling two well-known benchmark data sets and for the prediction of mechanical properties of heat-treated steels conducted to publication of three articles in two peer-reviewed journals and one international conference

Global Research Performance on the Design and Applications of Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems: A Bibliometric Analysis

There has been a significant contribution to scientific literature in the design and applications of Type-2 fuzzy logic systems (T2FLS). The T2FLSs found applications in many aspects of our daily lives, such as engineering, pure science, medicine and social sciences. The online web of science was searched to identify the 100 most frequently cited papers published on the design and application of T2FLS from 1980 to 2016. The articles were analyzed based on authorship, source title, country of origin, institution, document type, web of science category, and year of publication. The correlation between the average citation per year (ACY) and the total citation (TC) was analyzed. It was found that there is a strong relationship between the ACY and TC (r = 0.91643, P<0.01), based on the papers consider in this research.  The “Type -2 fuzzy sets made simple” authored by Mendel and John (2002), published in IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems received the highest TC as well as the ACY. The future trend in this research domain was also analyzed. The present analysis may serve as a guide for selecting qualitative literature especially to the beginners in the field of T2FLS

Fuzzy Logic in Decision Support: Methods, Applications and Future Trends

During the last decades, the art and science of fuzzy logic have witnessed significant developments and have found applications in many active areas, such as pattern recognition, classification, control systems, etc. A lot of research has demonstrated the ability of fuzzy logic in dealing with vague and uncertain linguistic information. For the purpose of representing human perception, fuzzy logic has been employed as an effective tool in intelligent decision making. Due to the emergence of various studies on fuzzy logic-based decision-making methods, it is necessary to make a comprehensive overview of published papers in this field and their applications. This paper covers a wide range of both theoretical and practical applications of fuzzy logic in decision making. It has been grouped into five parts: to explain the role of fuzzy logic in decision making, we first present some basic ideas underlying different types of fuzzy logic and the structure of the fuzzy logic system. Then, we make a review of evaluation methods, prediction methods, decision support algorithms, group decision-making methods based on fuzzy logic. Applications of these methods are further reviewed. Finally, some challenges and future trends are given from different perspectives. This paper illustrates that the combination of fuzzy logic and decision making method has an extensive research prospect. It can help researchers to identify the frontiers of fuzzy logic in the field of decision making

IVTURS: A linguistic fuzzy rule-based classification system based on a new interval-valued fuzzy reasoning method with tuning and rule selection

Interval-valued fuzzy sets have been shown to be a useful tool for dealing with the ignorance related to the definition of the linguistic labels. Specifically, they have been successfully applied to solve classification problems, performing simple modifications on the fuzzy reasoning method to work with this representation and making the classification based on a single number. In this paper we present IVTURS, a new linguistic fuzzy rule-based classification method based on a new completely interval-valued fuzzy reasoning method. This inference process uses interval-valued restricted equivalence functions to increase the relevance of the rules in which the equivalence of the interval membership degrees of the patterns and the ideal membership degrees is greater, which is a desirable behaviour. Furthermore, their parametrized construction allows the computation of the optimal function for each variable to be performed, which could involve a potential improvement in the system’s behaviour. Additionally, we combine this tuning of the equivalence with rule selection in order to decrease the complexity of the system. In this paper we name our method IVTURS-FARC, since we use the FARC-HD method to accomplish the fuzzy rule learning process. The experimental study is developed in three steps in order to ascertain the quality of our new proposal. First, we determine both the essential role that interval-valued fuzzy sets play in the method and the need for the rule selection process. Next, we show the improvements achieved by IVTURS-FARC with respect to the tuning of the degree of ignorance when it is applied in both an isolated way and when combined with the tuning of the equivalence. Finally, the significance of IVTURS-FARC is further depicted by means of a comparison by which it is proved to outperform the results of FARC-HD and FURIA, which are two high performing fuzzy classification algorithms.This work was supported in part by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology under projects TIN2011-28488 and TIN2010-15055 and the Andalusian Research Plan P10-TIC-6858 and P11-TIC-7765

Integrated computational intelligence and Japanese candlestick method for short-term financial forecasting

This research presents a study of intelligent stock price forecasting systems using interval type-2 fuzzy logic for analyzing Japanese candlestick techniques. Many intelligent financial forecasting models have been developed to predict stock prices, but many of them do not perform well under unstable market conditions. One reason for poor performance is that stock price forecasting is very complex, and many factors are involved in stock price movement. In this environment, two kinds of information exist, including quantitative data, such as actual stock prices, and qualitative data, such as stock traders\u27 opinions and expertise. Japanese candlestick techniques have been proven to be effective methods for describing the market psychology. This study is motivated by the challenges of implementing Japanese candlestick techniques to computational intelligent systems to forecast stock prices. The quantitative information, Japanese candlestick definitions, is managed by type-2 fuzzy logic systems. The qualitative data sets for the stock market are handled by a hybrid type of dynamic committee machine architecture. Inside this committee machine, generalized regression neural network-based experts handle actual stock prices for monitoring price movements. Neural network architecture is an effective tool for function approximation problems such as forecasting. Few studies have explored integrating intelligent systems and Japanese candlestick methods for stock price forecasting. The proposed model shows promising results. This research, derived from the interval type-2 fuzzy logic system, contributes to the understanding of Japanese candlestick techniques and becomes a potential resource for future financial market forecasting studies --Abstract, page iii

INTERVAL TYPE-2 FUZZY MODEL FOR CUSTOMER COMPLAINT HANDLING

Complaint management system (CMS) has become increasingly important for organizations, businesses, and government in Malaysia. The interaction between customers and business provider based on complaints which referring to perceptions and wording involves uncertainties and not an easy task in complaint handling process to rank the complaint

Hybrid learning for interval type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy logic systems as applied to identification and prediction problems

This paper presents a novel application of a hybrid learning approach to the optimisation of membership and non-membership functions of a newly developed interval type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy logic system (IT2 IFLS) of a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy inference system with neural network learning capability. The hybrid algorithms consisting of decou- pled extended Kalman filter (DEKF) and gradient descent (GD) are used to tune the parameters of the IT2 IFLS for the first time. The DEKF is used to tune the consequent parameters in the forward pass while the GD method is used to tune the antecedents parts during the backward pass of the hybrid learning. The hybrid algorithm is described and evaluated, prediction and identification results together with the runtime are compared with similar existing studies in the literature. Performance comparison is made between the proposed hybrid learning model of IT2 IFLS, a TSK-type-1 intuitionistic fuzzy logic system (IFLS-TSK) and a TSK-type interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2 FLS-TSK) on two instances of the datasets under investigation. The empirical comparison is made on the designed systems using three artificially generated datasets and three real world datasets. Analysis of results reveal that IT2 IFLS outperforms its type-1 variants, IT2 FLS and most of the existing models in the literature. Moreover, the minimal run time of the proposed hybrid learning model for IT2 IFLS also puts this model forward as a good candidate for application in real time systems

Heuristic design of fuzzy inference systems: a review of three decades of research

This paper provides an in-depth review of the optimal design of type-1 and type-2 fuzzy inference systems (FIS) using five well known computational frameworks: genetic-fuzzy systems (GFS), neuro-fuzzy systems (NFS), hierarchical fuzzy systems (HFS), evolving fuzzy systems (EFS), and multi-objective fuzzy systems (MFS), which is in view that some of them are linked to each other. The heuristic design of GFS uses evolutionary algorithms for optimizing both Mamdani-type and Takagi–Sugeno–Kang-type fuzzy systems. Whereas, the NFS combines the FIS with neural network learning systems to improve the approximation ability. An HFS combines two or more low-dimensional fuzzy logic units in a hierarchical design to overcome the curse of dimensionality. An EFS solves the data streaming issues by evolving the system incrementally, and an MFS solves the multi-objective trade-offs like the simultaneous maximization of both interpretability and accuracy. This paper offers a synthesis of these dimensions and explores their potentials, challenges, and opportunities in FIS research. This review also examines the complex relations among these dimensions and the possibilities of combining one or more computational frameworks adding another dimension: deep fuzzy systems

Past, present and future mathematical models for buildings (i)

This is the first of two articles presenting a detailed review of the historical evolution of mathematical models applied in the development of building technology, including conventional buildings and intelligent buildings. After presenting the technical differences between conventional and intelligent buildings, this article reviews the existing mathematical models, the abstract levels of these models, and their links to the literature for intelligent buildings. The advantages and limitations of the applied mathematical models are identified and the models are classified in terms of their application range and goal. We then describe how the early mathematical models, mainly physical models applied to conventional buildings, have faced new challenges for the design and management of intelligent buildings and led to the use of models which offer more flexibility to better cope with various uncertainties. In contrast with the early modelling techniques, model approaches adopted in neural networks, expert systems, fuzzy logic and genetic models provide a promising method to accommodate these complications as intelligent buildings now need integrated technologies which involve solving complex, multi-objective and integrated decision problems

Computational intelligence based complex adaptive system-of-systems architecture evolution strategy

The dynamic planning for a system-of-systems (SoS) is a challenging endeavor. Large scale organizations and operations constantly face challenges to incorporate new systems and upgrade existing systems over a period of time under threats, constrained budget and uncertainty. It is therefore necessary for the program managers to be able to look at the future scenarios and critically assess the impact of technology and stakeholder changes. Managers and engineers are always looking for options that signify affordable acquisition selections and lessen the cycle time for early acquisition and new technology addition. This research helps in analyzing sequential decisions in an evolving SoS architecture based on the wave model through three key features namely; meta-architecture generation, architecture assessment and architecture implementation. Meta-architectures are generated using evolutionary algorithms and assessed using type II fuzzy nets. The approach can accommodate diverse stakeholder views and convert them to key performance parameters (KPP) and use them for architecture assessment. On the other hand, it is not possible to implement such architecture without persuading the systems to participate into the meta-architecture. To address this issue a negotiation model is proposed which helps the SoS manger to adapt his strategy based on system owners behavior. This work helps in capturing the varied differences in the resources required by systems to prepare for participation. The viewpoints of multiple stakeholders are aggregated to assess the overall mission effectiveness of the overarching objective. An SAR SoS example problem illustrates application of the method. Also a dynamic programing approach can be used for generating meta-architectures based on the wave model. --Abstract, page iii