Improving Search with Supervised Learning in Trick-Based Card Games

In trick-taking card games, a two-step process of state sampling and evaluation is widely used to approximate move values. While the evaluation component is vital, the accuracy of move value estimates is also fundamentally linked to how well the sampling distribution corresponds the true distribution. Despite this, recent work in trick-taking card game AI has mainly focused on improving evaluation algorithms with limited work on improving sampling. In this paper, we focus on the effect of sampling on the strength of a player and propose a novel method of sampling more realistic states given move history. In particular, we use predictions about locations of individual cards made by a deep neural network --- trained on data from human gameplay - in order to sample likely worlds for evaluation. This technique, used in conjunction with Perfect Information Monte Carlo (PIMC) search, provides a substantial increase in cardplay strength in the popular trick-taking card game of Skat.Comment: Accepted for publication at AAAI-1

Managed Floats to Damp Shocks like 1982-5 and 2006-9: Field and Laboratory Evidence for Chinese Interest in a Single World Currency

This paper’s field evidence is: (1) many official sectors rapidly forget the damage of the 1982-85 exchange rate liquidity crisis and reverted to what caused that crisis, namely a closed economy clean floats perspective; and (2) the 2006-2008/9 exchange rate liquidity shock would have been more drastic but for central bank currency swaps. This evidence is bolstered by a laboratory experiment that incorporates more aspects of real world complexity and more different sorts of official and private sector agents than are feasible in econometric or algebraic investigations and employs a new central bank cooperation-conflict model of exchange rate determination , and is within an umbrella theory of Pope, namely SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. SKAT allows for risk effects from stages omitted in normal models, including those from (a) difficulties of agents in evaluating alternatives in a complex environment in which the assumed maximization of expected utility is impossible; and (b) preference for safety and reliability is not trivialized. Our joint field plus laboratory evidence indicates that official sectors should maintain an international exchange rate oriented perspective, or better yet, a single world currency as recommended by Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People’s Bank of China. To avoid rapid forgetting of havoc from isolationist clean floats and the value of stable exchange rates, a new syllabus, as under the SKAT umbrella, is fundamental in the education of official sector members in order to furnish them with a coherent alternative intellectual framework to current university education that excludes liquidity crises.clean float, managed float, IMF imposed conditions, exchange rate regime, exchange rate volatility, experiment, SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, monetary policy, transparent policy, exchange rate shocks, central bank cooperation, central bank conflict

Beggar Thy Neighbour Exchange Rate Regime Misadvice  from Misapplications of Mundell (1961) and the Remedy

Economists invoke Mundell (1961) in arguing for the general policy of   a flexible exchange rate regime as a means of restoring equilibria   after shocks. But there is a discrepancy between the intent of the   general policy and attempts at its implementation as identified by   specific changes in exchange rates.  When we assemble the set of   specific changes called for by distinct economists operating as   advocates for individual countries, these are uniformly in the form   of beggar-thy-neighbour advice – ie travesties of objectively   identifying disequilibria and a menace to international cooperation   and peace.  This paper traces the unintended travesties to problems   of complexity and uncertainty, problems that implicitly are assumed   absent in Mundell (1961) rendering the situation so simple that   equilibria are transparent.  The problems remained essentially   unaddressed when economists extended Mundell (1961) via expected   utility theory since this theory also ignores the impossibility of   maximising and the complexities of central bankers, private firms and   others in doing the evaluation stage in reaching decisions.  The   problems can be overcome by modelling within SKAT, the Stages of   Knowledge Ahead Theory.  This paper points to experimental evidence   in support of the view that under all sorts of disequilibrating   shocks, currency unions outperform flexible currencies by eliminating   the inefficiencies generated by exchange rate uncertainty.optimal currency area; exchange rate regime; certainty effects;   policy; beggar-thy-neighbour; SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory; complexity; equilibrium; small world; shocks; expenditure-switching shocks; supply-side shocks; demand shocks; experiment, safety, international competitiveness.

Nominalist Heuristics and Economic Theory

This paper introduces a new theoretic entity, a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. Abstractions used in the evaluation stage of decision making typically involve nominalist heuristics that are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes the evaluation stage, and are also incompatible with prospect theory which assumes that, while the evaluation procedure can involve systematic mistakes, the overall decision situation is nevertheless sufficiently simple: 1) for economists and psychologists to identify what is a mistake, and 2) to be compatible with maximisation. But in the typical complex situation giving rise to nominalist heuristics neither 1) nor 2) hold, and therefore what is required is a fundamentally different class of models that allow for the progressive anticipated changes in knowledge ahead faced under risk and uncertainty, namely models under the umbrella of SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. A sequel paper. Pope et al 2009b, shows field and laboratory evidence of heuristics in the form of prominent numbers entering exchange rate determination.nominalism, money illusion, heuristic, unpredictability, experiment, SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, prominent numbers, prominent indices, prominent ratios, equality, historical benchmarks, complexity, decision costs, evaluation

Risk Starvation Contributes to Dementias and Depressions: Whiffs of Danger Are the Antidote

This paper’s objective is to use SKAT, the author’s Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory of risk, to shed fresh light on the treatment and prevention of mental disorders. SKAT employs a broad definition of risk that allows for nice – not merely nasty – possibilities. SKAT is here shown to solve eight epidemiological puzzles left unexplained by our current theories and associated treatments for the demented and depressed. SKAT does so by enabling a decision model of mental health that puts centre stage why people (and other soft-wired animals) have brains – to make decisions under risk. To make good decisions (be healthy), brains need exercise. Brains get beneficial exercise from what the paper terms “whiffs of danger”, namely sets of risks with the characteristics that the risks are 1) tiny, 2) varied, and 3) frequent. Brains deteriorate when there are shortfalls in such risk exercise. The paper terms such shortfalls “risk starvation”. Those lacking a history of whiffs find normal mishaps too stressful and frequently become depressed. A lot of time with an inadequate amount of whiffs generates the endemic co-morbidity of becoming demented as well as depressed. Socio-economic cultural changes such as the introduction of unemployment benefits and old age pensions and increasing protection of women and children have had the beneficial effects of removing big challenges and big dangers and thus of prolonging physical longevity. But these changes also removed the tiny challenges and tiny dangers formerly faced by those sub-groups in the population identified as more prone to depressions and dementias. Unintentionally, these sub-groups thus were deprived of whiffs of danger, and suffered from risk starvation. In both drug and psychotherapeutic stress research and treatments of the depressed and demented, there should be injections of whiffs of danger to enhance the likelihood of enduring improvements. It is unkind and dangerous for people’s brains to be treated with drugs while maintaining the modern socioeconomic culture of coddling parents and coddling college / university student counsellors, coddling unemployment benefits and coddling old age pensions. These coddles need to be complemented with whiffs of danger, tiny varied chances and challenges. These whiffs of danger need to be introduced in three forms: eliciting social security recipients’ whiffs of danger in the form of little obligations to help the community; educating the poor and other sub-groups that believe closeting females at home endangers their mental health; and educating parents on the damage from overprotection. Overprotection prevents children from becoming inoculated against depression with sensible hope developed over a childhood in which they were allowed to experience numerous failures, not merely numerous successes from parents too closely engineering their environment. Research is required on the likely role of risk starvation in mental disorders other than dementias and depressions and in some physical illnesses.stress; whiffs of danger; decision; dementia; depression; risk starvation; risk; learning; hope; fear; risk-based emotions

Social workers and human sexuality knowledge and comfort

Human sexuality is a major aspect of everyone\u27s existence. Social workers need to have access to information enabling them to be knowledgeable, unbiased, and effective in their professional dealings with individual clients, families, groups, communities, and society at large. The premise of this research is that social workers would be more effective in practice when provided with sufficient human sexuality training and education

PowerAqua: fishing the semantic web

The Semantic Web (SW) offers an opportunity to develop novel, sophisticated forms of question answering (QA). Specifically, the availability of distributed semantic markup on a large scale opens the way to QA systems which can make use of such semantic information to provide precise, formally derived answers to questions. At the same time the distributed, heterogeneous, large-scale nature of the semantic information introduces significant challenges. In this paper we describe the design of a QA system, PowerAqua, designed to exploit semantic markup on the web to provide answers to questions posed in natural language. PowerAqua does not assume that the user has any prior information about the semantic resources. The system takes as input a natural language query, translates it into a set of logical queries, which are then answered by consulting and aggregating information derived from multiple heterogeneous semantic sources