Learning Mobility Flows from Urban Features with Spatial Interaction Models and Neural Networks

A fundamental problem of interest to policy makers, urban planners, and other stakeholders involved in urban development projects is assessing the impact of planning and construction activities on mobility flows. This is a challenging task due to the different spatial, temporal, social, and economic factors influencing urban mobility flows. These flows, along with the influencing factors, can be modelled as attributed graphs with both node and edge features characterising locations in a city and the various types of relationships between them. In this paper, we address the problem of assessing origin-destination (OD) car flows between a location of interest and every other location in a city, given their features and the structural characteristics of the graph. We propose three neural network architectures, including graph neural networks (GNN), and conduct a systematic comparison between the proposed methods and state-of-the-art spatial interaction models, their modifications, and machine learning approaches. The objective of the paper is to address the practical problem of estimating potential flow between an urban development project location and other locations in the city, where the features of the project location are known in advance. We evaluate the performance of the models on a regression task using a custom data set of attributed car OD flows in London. We also visualise the model performance by showing the spatial distribution of flow residuals across London.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, to be published in the Proceedings of 2020 IEEE International Conference on Smart Computing (SMARTCOMP 2020

An Interdisciplinary Survey on Origin-destination Flows Modeling: Theory and Techniques

Origin-destination~(OD) flow modeling is an extensively researched subject across multiple disciplines, such as the investigation of travel demand in transportation and spatial interaction modeling in geography. However, researchers from different fields tend to employ their own unique research paradigms and lack interdisciplinary communication, preventing the cross-fertilization of knowledge and the development of novel solutions to challenges. This article presents a systematic interdisciplinary survey that comprehensively and holistically scrutinizes OD flows from utilizing fundamental theory to studying the mechanism of population mobility and solving practical problems with engineering techniques, such as computational models. Specifically, regional economics, urban geography, and sociophysics are adept at employing theoretical research methods to explore the underlying mechanisms of OD flows. They have developed three influential theoretical models: the gravity model, the intervening opportunities model, and the radiation model. These models specifically focus on examining the fundamental influences of distance, opportunities, and population on OD flows, respectively. In the meantime, fields such as transportation, urban planning, and computer science primarily focus on addressing four practical problems: OD prediction, OD construction, OD estimation, and OD forecasting. Advanced computational models, such as deep learning models, have gradually been introduced to address these problems more effectively. Finally, based on the existing research, this survey summarizes current challenges and outlines future directions for this topic. Through this survey, we aim to break down the barriers between disciplines in OD flow-related research, fostering interdisciplinary perspectives and modes of thinking.Comment: 49 pages, 6 figure

An investigation into machine learning approaches for forecasting spatio-temporal demand in ride-hailing service

In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for characterizing and forecasting the short-term demand for on-demand ride-hailing services. We propose the spatio-temporal estimation of the demand that is a function of variable effects related to traffic, pricing and weather conditions. With respect to the methodology, a single decision tree, bootstrap-aggregated (bagged) decision trees, random forest, boosted decision trees, and artificial neural network for regression have been adapted and systematically compared using various statistics, e.g. R-square, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and slope. To better assess the quality of the models, they have been tested on a real case study using the data of DiDi Chuxing, the main on-demand ride hailing service provider in China. In the current study, 199,584 time-slots describing the spatio-temporal ride-hailing demand has been extracted with an aggregated-time interval of 10 mins. All the methods are trained and validated on the basis of two independent samples from this dataset. The results revealed that boosted decision trees provide the best prediction accuracy (RMSE=16.41), while avoiding the risk of over-fitting, followed by artificial neural network (20.09), random forest (23.50), bagged decision trees (24.29) and single decision tree (33.55).Comment: Currently under review for journal publicatio

Geo-Spotting: Mining Online Location-based Services for Optimal Retail Store Placement

The problem of identifying the optimal location for a new retail store has been the focus of past research, especially in the field of land economy, due to its importance in the success of a business. Traditional approaches to the problem have factored in demographics, revenue and aggregated human flow statistics from nearby or remote areas. However, the acquisition of relevant data is usually expensive. With the growth of location-based social networks, fine grained data describing user mobility and popularity of places has recently become attainable. In this paper we study the predictive power of various machine learning features on the popularity of retail stores in the city through the use of a dataset collected from Foursquare in New York. The features we mine are based on two general signals: geographic, where features are formulated according to the types and density of nearby places, and user mobility, which includes transitions between venues or the incoming flow of mobile users from distant areas. Our evaluation suggests that the best performing features are common across the three different commercial chains considered in the analysis, although variations may exist too, as explained by heterogeneities in the way retail facilities attract users. We also show that performance improves significantly when combining multiple features in supervised learning algorithms, suggesting that the retail success of a business may depend on multiple factors.Comment: Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, Chicago, 2013, Pages 793-80

UrbanFM: Inferring Fine-Grained Urban Flows

Urban flow monitoring systems play important roles in smart city efforts around the world. However, the ubiquitous deployment of monitoring devices, such as CCTVs, induces a long-lasting and enormous cost for maintenance and operation. This suggests the need for a technology that can reduce the number of deployed devices, while preventing the degeneration of data accuracy and granularity. In this paper, we aim to infer the real-time and fine-grained crowd flows throughout a city based on coarse-grained observations. This task is challenging due to two reasons: the spatial correlations between coarse- and fine-grained urban flows, and the complexities of external impacts. To tackle these issues, we develop a method entitled UrbanFM based on deep neural networks. Our model consists of two major parts: 1) an inference network to generate fine-grained flow distributions from coarse-grained inputs by using a feature extraction module and a novel distributional upsampling module; 2) a general fusion subnet to further boost the performance by considering the influences of different external factors. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets, namely TaxiBJ and HappyValley, validate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method compared to seven baselines, demonstrating the state-of-the-art performance of our approach on the fine-grained urban flow inference problem

Big data analytics:Computational intelligence techniques and application areas

Big Data has significant impact in developing functional smart cities and supporting modern societies. In this paper, we investigate the importance of Big Data in modern life and economy, and discuss challenges arising from Big Data utilization. Different computational intelligence techniques have been considered as tools for Big Data analytics. We also explore the powerful combination of Big Data and Computational Intelligence (CI) and identify a number of areas, where novel applications in real world smart city problems can be developed by utilizing these powerful tools and techniques. We present a case study for intelligent transportation in the context of a smart city, and a novel data modelling methodology based on a biologically inspired universal generative modelling approach called Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal State Machine (HSTSM). We further discuss various implications of policy, protection, valuation and commercialization related to Big Data, its applications and deployment

On the Relation Between Mobile Encounters and Web Traffic Patterns: A Data-driven Study

Mobility and network traffic have been traditionally studied separately. Their interaction is vital for generations of future mobile services and effective caching, but has not been studied in depth with real-world big data. In this paper, we characterize mobility encounters and study the correlation between encounters and web traffic profiles using large-scale datasets (30TB in size) of WiFi and NetFlow traces. The analysis quantifies these correlations for the first time, across spatio-temporal dimensions, for device types grouped into on-the-go Flutes and sit-to-use Cellos. The results consistently show a clear relation between mobility encounters and traffic across different buildings over multiple days, with encountered pairs showing higher traffic similarity than non-encountered pairs, and long encounters being associated with the highest similarity. We also investigate the feasibility of learning encounters through web traffic profiles, with implications for dissemination protocols, and contact tracing. This provides a compelling case to integrate both mobility and web traffic dimensions in future models, not only at an individual level, but also at pairwise and collective levels. We have released samples of code and data used in this study on GitHub, to support reproducibility and encourage further research (https://github.com/BabakAp/encounter-traffic).Comment: Technical report with details for conference paper at MSWiM 2018, v3 adds GitHub lin