Learning Mixtures of Distributions over Large Discrete Domains

We discuss recent results giving algorithms for learning mixtures of unstructured distributions

Learning mixtures of structured distributions over discrete domains

Let $\mathfrak{C}$ be a class of probability distributions over the discrete domain $[n] = \{1,...,n\}.$ We show that if $\mathfrak{C}$ satisfies a rather general condition -- essentially, that each distribution in $\mathfrak{C}$ can be well-approximated by a variable-width histogram with few bins -- then there is a highly efficient (both in terms of running time and sample complexity) algorithm that can learn any mixture of $k$ unknown distributions from $\mathfrak{C}.$ We analyze several natural types of distributions over $[n]$, including log-concave, monotone hazard rate and unimodal distributions, and show that they have the required structural property of being well-approximated by a histogram with few bins. Applying our general algorithm, we obtain near-optimally efficient algorithms for all these mixture learning problems.Comment: preliminary full version of soda'13 pape

Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events

We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden state, we use hierarchical mixtures of distributions in the exponential family. In our approach the observation distribution of the states is a finite mixture distribution of a small set of (simpler) distributions shared across all states. Using tied-mixture observation distributions offers several advantages. The mixtures act as a regularization for typically very sparse problems, and they reduce the computational effort for the learning algorithm since there are fewer distributions to be found. Using shared mixtures enables sharing of statistical strength between the Markov states and thus transfer learning. We determine for individual assets the trade-off between the risk of failure and extended operating hours by combining a MMMM with a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) to dynamically optimize the policy for when and how to maintain the asset.Comment: Will be published in the proceedings of ICCS 2020; @Booklet{EasyChair:3183, author = {Paul Hofmann and Zaid Tashman}, title = {Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events}, howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 3183}, year = {EasyChair, 2020}

A Polynomial Time Algorithm for Lossy Population Recovery

We give a polynomial time algorithm for the lossy population recovery problem. In this problem, the goal is to approximately learn an unknown distribution on binary strings of length $n$ from lossy samples: for some parameter $\mu$ each coordinate of the sample is preserved with probability $\mu$ and otherwise is replaced by a `?'. The running time and number of samples needed for our algorithm is polynomial in $n$ and $1/\varepsilon$ for each fixed $\mu>0$. This improves on algorithm of Wigderson and Yehudayoff that runs in quasi-polynomial time for any $\mu > 0$ and the polynomial time algorithm of Dvir et al which was shown to work for $\mu \gtrapprox 0.30$ by Batman et al. In fact, our algorithm also works in the more general framework of Batman et al. in which there is no a priori bound on the size of the support of the distribution. The algorithm we analyze is implicit in previous work; our main contribution is to analyze the algorithm by showing (via linear programming duality and connections to complex analysis) that a certain matrix associated with the problem has a robust local inverse even though its condition number is exponentially small. A corollary of our result is the first polynomial time algorithm for learning DNFs in the restriction access model of Dvir et al

Bayesian Learning of Sum-Product Networks

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are flexible density estimators and have received significant attention due to their attractive inference properties. While parameter learning in SPNs is well developed, structure learning leaves something to be desired: Even though there is a plethora of SPN structure learners, most of them are somewhat ad-hoc and based on intuition rather than a clear learning principle. In this paper, we introduce a well-principled Bayesian framework for SPN structure learning. First, we decompose the problem into i) laying out a computational graph, and ii) learning the so-called scope function over the graph. The first is rather unproblematic and akin to neural network architecture validation. The second represents the effective structure of the SPN and needs to respect the usual structural constraints in SPN, i.e. completeness and decomposability. While representing and learning the scope function is somewhat involved in general, in this paper, we propose a natural parametrisation for an important and widely used special case of SPNs. These structural parameters are incorporated into a Bayesian model, such that simultaneous structure and parameter learning is cast into monolithic Bayesian posterior inference. In various experiments, our Bayesian SPNs often improve test likelihoods over greedy SPN learners. Further, since the Bayesian framework protects against overfitting, we can evaluate hyper-parameters directly on the Bayesian model score, waiving the need for a separate validation set, which is especially beneficial in low data regimes. Bayesian SPNs can be applied to heterogeneous domains and can easily be extended to nonparametric formulations. Moreover, our Bayesian approach is the first, which consistently and robustly learns SPN structures under missing data.Comment: NeurIPS 2019; See conference page for supplemen