Adaptive imputation of missing values for incomplete pattern classification

In classification of incomplete pattern, the missing values can either play a crucial role in the class determination, or have only little influence (or eventually none) on the classification results according to the context. We propose a credal classification method for incomplete pattern with adaptive imputation of missing values based on belief function theory. At first, we try to classify the object (incomplete pattern) based only on the available attribute values. As underlying principle, we assume that the missing information is not crucial for the classification if a specific class for the object can be found using only the available information. In this case, the object is committed to this particular class. However, if the object cannot be classified without ambiguity, it means that the missing values play a main role for achieving an accurate classification. In this case, the missing values will be imputed based on the K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) and self-organizing map (SOM) techniques, and the edited pattern with the imputation is then classified. The (original or edited) pattern is respectively classified according to each training class, and the classification results represented by basic belief assignments are fused with proper combination rules for making the credal classification. The object is allowed to belong with different masses of belief to the specific classes and meta-classes (which are particular disjunctions of several single classes). The credal classification captures well the uncertainty and imprecision of classification, and reduces effectively the rate of misclassifications thanks to the introduction of meta-classes. The effectiveness of the proposed method with respect to other classical methods is demonstrated based on several experiments using artificial and real data sets

Evidential Bagging: Combining Heterogeneous Classifiers in the Belief Functions Framework

International audienceIn machine learning, Ensemble Learning methodologies are known to improve predictive accuracy and robustness. They consist in the learning of many classifiers that produce outputs which are finally combined according to different techniques. Bagging, or Bootstrap Aggre-gating, is one of the most famous Ensemble methodologies and is usually applied to the same classification base algorithm, i.e. the same type of classifier is learnt multiple times on bootstrapped versions of the initial learning dataset. In this paper, we propose a bagging methodology that involves different types of classifier. Classifiers' probabilist outputs are used to build mass functions which are further combined within the belief functions framework. Three different ways of building mass functions are proposed; preliminary experiments on benchmark datasets showing the relevancy of the approach are presented

The belief noisy-or model applied to network reliability analysis

One difficulty faced in knowledge engineering for Bayesian Network (BN) is the quan-tification step where the Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) are determined. The number of parameters included in CPTs increases exponentially with the number of parent variables. The most common solution is the application of the so-called canonical gates. The Noisy-OR (NOR) gate, which takes advantage of the independence of causal interactions, provides a logarithmic reduction of the number of parameters required to specify a CPT. In this paper, an extension of NOR model based on the theory of belief functions, named Belief Noisy-OR (BNOR), is proposed. BNOR is capable of dealing with both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty of the network. Compared with NOR, more rich information which is of great value for making decisions can be got when the available knowledge is uncertain. Specially, when there is no epistemic uncertainty, BNOR degrades into NOR. Additionally, different structures of BNOR are presented in this paper in order to meet various needs of engineers. The application of BNOR model on the reliability evaluation problem of networked systems demonstrates its effectiveness

Probabilistic Logic Programming with Beta-Distributed Random Variables

We enable aProbLog---a probabilistic logical programming approach---to reason in presence of uncertain probabilities represented as Beta-distributed random variables. We achieve the same performance of state-of-the-art algorithms for highly specified and engineered domains, while simultaneously we maintain the flexibility offered by aProbLog in handling complex relational domains. Our motivation is that faithfully capturing the distribution of probabilities is necessary to compute an expected utility for effective decision making under uncertainty: unfortunately, these probability distributions can be highly uncertain due to sparse data. To understand and accurately manipulate such probability distributions we need a well-defined theoretical framework that is provided by the Beta distribution, which specifies a distribution of probabilities representing all the possible values of a probability when the exact value is unknown.Comment: Accepted for presentation at AAAI 201

Recognition Situations Using Extended Dempster-Shafer Theory

Weiser’s [111] vision of pervasive computing describes a world where technology seamlessly integrates into the environment, automatically responding to peoples’ needs. Underpinning this vision is the ability of systems to automatically track the situation of a person. The task of situation recognition is critical and complex: noisy and unreliable sensor data, dynamic situations, unpredictable human behaviour and changes in the environment all contribute to the complexity. No single recognition technique is suitable in all environments. Factors such as availability of training data, ability to deal with uncertain information and transparency to the user will determine which technique to use in any particular environment. In this thesis, we propose the use of Dempster-Shafer theory as a theoretically sound basis for situation recognition - an approach that can reason with uncertainty, but which does not rely on training data. We use existing operations from Dempster-Shafer theory and create new operations to establish an evidence decision network. The network is used to generate and assess situation beliefs based on processed sensor data for an environment. We also define two specific extensions to Dempster-Shafer theory to enhance the knowledge that can be used for reasoning: 1) temporal knowledge about situation time patterns 2) quality of evidence sources (sensors) into the reasoning process. To validate the feasibility of our approach, this thesis creates evidence decision networks for two real-world data sets: a smart home data set and an officebased data set. We analyse situation recognition accuracy for each of the data sets, using the evidence decision networks with temporal/quality extensions. We also compare the evidence decision networks against two learning techniques: Naïve Bayes and J48 Decision Tree

Percepção do ambiente urbano e navegação usando visão robótica : concepção e implementação aplicado à veículo autônomo

Orientadores: Janito Vaqueiro Ferreira, Alessandro Corrêa VictorinoTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia MecânicaResumo: O desenvolvimento de veículos autônomos capazes de se locomover em ruas urbanas pode proporcionar importantes benefícios na redução de acidentes, no aumentando da qualidade de vida e também na redução de custos. Veículos inteligentes, por exemplo, frequentemente baseiam suas decisões em observações obtidas a partir de vários sensores tais como LIDAR, GPS e câmeras. Atualmente, sensores de câmera têm recebido grande atenção pelo motivo de que eles são de baixo custo, fáceis de utilizar e fornecem dados com rica informação. Ambientes urbanos representam um interessante mas também desafiador cenário neste contexto, onde o traçado das ruas podem ser muito complexos, a presença de objetos tais como árvores, bicicletas, veículos podem gerar observações parciais e também estas observações são muitas vezes ruidosas ou ainda perdidas devido a completas oclusões. Portanto, o processo de percepção por natureza precisa ser capaz de lidar com a incerteza no conhecimento do mundo em torno do veículo. Nesta tese, este problema de percepção é analisado para a condução nos ambientes urbanos associado com a capacidade de realizar um deslocamento seguro baseado no processo de tomada de decisão em navegação autônoma. Projeta-se um sistema de percepção que permita veículos robóticos a trafegar autonomamente nas ruas, sem a necessidade de adaptar a infraestrutura, sem o conhecimento prévio do ambiente e considerando a presença de objetos dinâmicos tais como veículos. Propõe-se um novo método baseado em aprendizado de máquina para extrair o contexto semântico usando um par de imagens estéreo, a qual é vinculada a uma grade de ocupação evidencial que modela as incertezas de um ambiente urbano desconhecido, aplicando a teoria de Dempster-Shafer. Para a tomada de decisão no planejamento do caminho, aplica-se a abordagem dos tentáculos virtuais para gerar possíveis caminhos a partir do centro de referencia do veículo e com base nisto, duas novas estratégias são propostas. Em primeiro, uma nova estratégia para escolher o caminho correto para melhor evitar obstáculos e seguir a tarefa local no contexto da navegação hibrida e, em segundo, um novo controle de malha fechada baseado na odometria visual e o tentáculo virtual é modelado para execução do seguimento de caminho. Finalmente, um completo sistema automotivo integrando os modelos de percepção, planejamento e controle são implementados e validados experimentalmente em condições reais usando um veículo autônomo experimental, onde os resultados mostram que a abordagem desenvolvida realiza com sucesso uma segura navegação local com base em sensores de câmeraAbstract: The development of autonomous vehicles capable of getting around on urban roads can provide important benefits in reducing accidents, in increasing life comfort and also in providing cost savings. Intelligent vehicles for example often base their decisions on observations obtained from various sensors such as LIDAR, GPS and Cameras. Actually, camera sensors have been receiving large attention due to they are cheap, easy to employ and provide rich data information. Inner-city environments represent an interesting but also very challenging scenario in this context, where the road layout may be very complex, the presence of objects such as trees, bicycles, cars might generate partial observations and also these observations are often noisy or even missing due to heavy occlusions. Thus, perception process by nature needs to be able to deal with uncertainties in the knowledge of the world around the car. While highway navigation and autonomous driving using a prior knowledge of the environment have been demonstrating successfully, understanding and navigating general inner-city scenarios with little prior knowledge remains an unsolved problem. In this thesis, this perception problem is analyzed for driving in the inner-city environments associated with the capacity to perform a safe displacement based on decision-making process in autonomous navigation. It is designed a perception system that allows robotic-cars to drive autonomously on roads, without the need to adapt the infrastructure, without requiring previous knowledge of the environment and considering the presence of dynamic objects such as cars. It is proposed a novel method based on machine learning to extract the semantic context using a pair of stereo images, which is merged in an evidential grid to model the uncertainties of an unknown urban environment, applying the Dempster-Shafer theory. To make decisions in path-planning, it is applied the virtual tentacle approach to generate possible paths starting from ego-referenced car and based on it, two news strategies are proposed. First one, a new strategy to select the correct path to better avoid obstacles and to follow the local task in the context of hybrid navigation, and second, a new closed loop control based on visual odometry and virtual tentacle is modeled to path-following execution. Finally, a complete automotive system integrating the perception, path-planning and control modules are implemented and experimentally validated in real situations using an experimental autonomous car, where the results show that the developed approach successfully performs a safe local navigation based on camera sensorsDoutoradoMecanica dos Sólidos e Projeto MecanicoDoutor em Engenharia Mecânic

Quantifying Assurance in Learning-enabled Systems

Dependability assurance of systems embedding machine learning(ML) components---so called learning-enabled systems (LESs)---is a key step for their use in safety-critical applications. In emerging standardization and guidance efforts, there is a growing consensus in the value of using assurance cases for that purpose. This paper develops a quantitative notion of assurance that an LES is dependable, as a core component of its assurance case, also extending our prior work that applied to ML components. Specifically, we characterize LES assurance in the form of assurance measures: a probabilistic quantification of confidence that an LES possesses system-level properties associated with functional capabilities and dependability attributes. We illustrate the utility of assurance measures by application to a real world autonomous aviation system, also describing their role both in i) guiding high-level, runtime risk mitigation decisions and ii) as a core component of the associated dynamic assurance case.Comment: Author's pre-print version of manuscript accepted for publication in the Proceedings of the 39th International Conference in Computer Safety, Reliability, and Security (SAFECOMP 2020