Unsupervised learning for anomaly detection in Australian medical payment data

Fraudulent or wasteful medical insurance claims made by health care providers are costly for insurers. Typically, OECD healthcare organisations lose 3-8% of total expenditure due to fraud. As Australia’s universal public health insurer, Medicare Australia, spends approximately $A 34 billion per annum on the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, wasted spending of$A1–2.7 billion could be expected.However, fewer than 1% of claims to Medicare Australia are detected as fraudulent, below international benchmarks. Variation is common in medicine, and health conditions, along with their presentation and treatment, are heterogenous by nature. Increasing volumes of data and rapidly changing patterns bring challenges which require novel solutions. Machine learning and data mining are becoming commonplace in this field, but no gold standard is yet available. In this project, requirements are developed for real-world application to compliance analytics at the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care (DoH), covering: unsupervised learning; problem generalisation; human interpretability; context discovery; and cost prediction. Three novel methods are presented which rank providers by potentially recoverable costs. These methods used association analysis, topic modelling, and sequential pattern mining to provide interpretable, expert-editable models of typical provider claims. Anomalous providers are identified through comparison to the typical models, using metrics based on costs of excess or upgraded services. Domain knowledge is incorporated in a machine-friendly way in two of the methods through the use of the MBS as an ontology. Validation by subject-matter experts and comparison to existing techniques shows that the methods perform well. The methods are implemented in a software framework which enables rapid prototyping and quality assurance. The code is implemented at the DoH, and further applications as decision-support systems are in progress. The developed requirements will apply to future work in this fiel

Analyzing Granger causality in climate data with time series classification methods

Attribution studies in climate science aim for scientifically ascertaining the influence of climatic variations on natural or anthropogenic factors. Many of those studies adopt the concept of Granger causality to infer statistical cause-effect relationships, while utilizing traditional autoregressive models. In this article, we investigate the potential of state-of-the-art time series classification techniques to enhance causal inference in climate science. We conduct a comparative experimental study of different types of algorithms on a large test suite that comprises a unique collection of datasets from the area of climate-vegetation dynamics. The results indicate that specialized time series classification methods are able to improve existing inference procedures. Substantial differences are observed among the methods that were tested

Online Spectral Clustering on Network Streams

Graph is an extremely useful representation of a wide variety of practical systems in data analysis. Recently, with the fast accumulation of stream data from various type of networks, significant research interests have arisen on spectral clustering for network streams (or evolving networks). Compared with the general spectral clustering problem, the data analysis of this new type of problems may have additional requirements, such as short processing time, scalability in distributed computing environments, and temporal variation tracking. However, to design a spectral clustering method to satisfy these requirements certainly presents non-trivial efforts. There are three major challenges for the new algorithm design. The first challenge is online clustering computation. Most of the existing spectral methods on evolving networks are off-line methods, using standard eigensystem solvers such as the Lanczos method. It needs to recompute solutions from scratch at each time point. The second challenge is the parallelization of algorithms. To parallelize such algorithms is non-trivial since standard eigen solvers are iterative algorithms and the number of iterations can not be predetermined. The third challenge is the very limited existing work. In addition, there exists multiple limitations in the existing method, such as computational inefficiency on large similarity changes, the lack of sound theoretical basis, and the lack of effective way to handle accumulated approximate errors and large data variations over time. In this thesis, we proposed a new online spectral graph clustering approach with a family of three novel spectrum approximation algorithms. Our algorithms incrementally update the eigenpairs in an online manner to improve the computational performance. Our approaches outperformed the existing method in computational efficiency and scalability while retaining competitive or even better clustering accuracy. We derived our spectrum approximation techniques GEPT and EEPT through formal theoretical analysis. The well established matrix perturbation theory forms a solid theoretic foundation for our online clustering method. We facilitated our clustering method with a new metric to track accumulated approximation errors and measure the short-term temporal variation. The metric not only provides a balance between computational efficiency and clustering accuracy, but also offers a useful tool to adapt the online algorithm to the condition of unexpected drastic noise. In addition, we discussed our preliminary work on approximate graph mining with evolutionary process, non-stationary Bayesian Network structure learning from non-stationary time series data, and Bayesian Network structure learning with text priors imposed by non-parametric hierarchical topic modeling

Self-Evaluation Applied Mathematics 2003-2008 University of Twente

This report contains the self-study for the research assessment of the Department of Applied Mathematics (AM) of the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science (EEMCS) at the University of Twente (UT). The report provides the information for the Research Assessment Committee for Applied Mathematics, dealing with mathematical sciences at the three universities of technology in the Netherlands. It describes the state of affairs pertaining to the period 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2008

Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing 2023

The Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing (PSB) 2023 is an international, multidisciplinary conference for the presentation and discussion of current research in the theory and application of computational methods in problems of biological significance. Presentations are rigorously peer reviewed and are published in an archival proceedings volume. PSB 2023 will be held on January 3-7, 2023 in Kohala Coast, Hawaii. Tutorials and workshops will be offered prior to the start of the conference.PSB 2023 will bring together top researchers from the US, the Asian Pacific nations, and around the world to exchange research results and address open issues in all aspects of computational biology. It is a forum for the presentation of work in databases, algorithms, interfaces, visualization, modeling, and other computational methods, as applied to biological problems, with emphasis on applications in data-rich areas of molecular biology.The PSB has been designed to be responsive to the need for critical mass in sub-disciplines within biocomputing. For that reason, it is the only meeting whose sessions are defined dynamically each year in response to specific proposals. PSB sessions are organized by leaders of research in biocomputing's 'hot topics.' In this way, the meeting provides an early forum for serious examination of emerging methods and approaches in this rapidly changing field

Solving Prediction Problems from Temporal Event Data on Networks

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)Many complex processes can be viewed as sequential events on a network. In this thesis, we study the interplay between a network and the event sequences on it. We first focus on predicting events on a known network. Examples of such include: modeling retweet cascades, forecasting earthquakes, and tracing the source of a pandemic. In specific, given the network structure, we solve two types of problems - (1) forecasting future events based on the historical events, and (2) identifying the initial event(s) based on some later observations of the dynamics. The inverse problem of inferring the unknown network topology or links, based on the events, is also of great important. Examples along this line include: constructing influence networks among Twitter users from their tweets, soliciting new members to join an event based on their participation history, and recommending positions for job seekers according to their work experience. Following this direction, we study two types of problems - (1) recovering influence networks, and (2) predicting links between a node and a group of nodes, from event sequences

Representation Learning for Texts and Graphs: A Unified Perspective on Efficiency, Multimodality, and Adaptability

[...] This thesis is situated between natural language processing and graph representation learning and investigates selected connections. First, we introduce matrix embeddings as an efficient text representation sensitive to word order. [...] Experiments with ten linguistic probing tasks, 11 supervised, and five unsupervised downstream tasks reveal that vector and matrix embeddings have complementary strengths and that a jointly trained hybrid model outperforms both. Second, a popular pretrained language model, BERT, is distilled into matrix embeddings. [...] The results on the GLUE benchmark show that these models are competitive with other recent contextualized language models while being more efficient in time and space. Third, we compare three model types for text classification: bag-of-words, sequence-, and graph-based models. Experiments on five datasets show that, surprisingly, a wide multilayer perceptron on top of a bag-of-words representation is competitive with recent graph-based approaches, questioning the necessity of graphs synthesized from the text. [...] Fourth, we investigate the connection between text and graph data in document-based recommender systems for citations and subject labels. Experiments on six datasets show that the title as side information improves the performance of autoencoder models. [...] We find that the meaning of item co-occurrence is crucial for the choice of input modalities and an appropriate model. Fifth, we introduce a generic framework for lifelong learning on evolving graphs in which new nodes, edges, and classes appear over time. [...] The results show that by reusing previous parameters in incremental training, it is possible to employ smaller history sizes with only a slight decrease in accuracy compared to training with complete history. Moreover, weighting the binary cross-entropy loss function is crucial to mitigate the problem of class imbalance when detecting newly emerging classes. [...

Gaining Insight into Determinants of Physical Activity using Bayesian Network Learning

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