1,669 research outputs found
Causal inference using the algorithmic Markov condition
Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon
detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the
joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible
when only single observations are present.
We develop a theory how to generate causal graphs explaining similarities
between single objects. To this end, we replace the notion of conditional
stochastic independence in the causal Markov condition with the vanishing of
conditional algorithmic mutual information and describe the corresponding
causal inference rules.
We explain why a consistent reformulation of causal inference in terms of
algorithmic complexity implies a new inference principle that takes into
account also the complexity of conditional probability densities, making it
possible to select among Markov equivalent causal graphs. This insight provides
a theoretical foundation of a heuristic principle proposed in earlier work.
We also discuss how to replace Kolmogorov complexity with decidable
complexity criteria. This can be seen as an algorithmic analog of replacing the
empirically undecidable question of statistical independence with practical
independence tests that are based on implicit or explicit assumptions on the
underlying distribution.Comment: 16 figure
Network Psychometrics
This chapter provides a general introduction of network modeling in
psychometrics. The chapter starts with an introduction to the statistical model
formulation of pairwise Markov random fields (PMRF), followed by an
introduction of the PMRF suitable for binary data: the Ising model. The Ising
model is a model used in ferromagnetism to explain phase transitions in a field
of particles. Following the description of the Ising model in statistical
physics, the chapter continues to show that the Ising model is closely related
to models used in psychometrics. The Ising model can be shown to be equivalent
to certain kinds of logistic regression models, loglinear models and
multi-dimensional item response theory (MIRT) models. The equivalence between
the Ising model and the MIRT model puts standard psychometrics in a new light
and leads to a strikingly different interpretation of well-known latent
variable models. The chapter gives an overview of methods that can be used to
estimate the Ising model, and concludes with a discussion on the interpretation
of latent variables given the equivalence between the Ising model and MIRT.Comment: In Irwing, P., Hughes, D., and Booth, T. (2018). The Wiley Handbook
of Psychometric Testing, 2 Volume Set: A Multidisciplinary Reference on
Survey, Scale and Test Development. New York: Wile
Semi-Supervised Learning, Causality and the Conditional Cluster Assumption
While the success of semi-supervised learning (SSL) is still not fully
understood, Sch\"olkopf et al. (2012) have established a link to the principle
of independent causal mechanisms. They conclude that SSL should be impossible
when predicting a target variable from its causes, but possible when predicting
it from its effects. Since both these cases are somewhat restrictive, we extend
their work by considering classification using cause and effect features at the
same time, such as predicting disease from both risk factors and symptoms.
While standard SSL exploits information contained in the marginal distribution
of all inputs (to improve the estimate of the conditional distribution of the
target given inputs), we argue that in our more general setting we should use
information in the conditional distribution of effect features given causal
features. We explore how this insight generalises the previous understanding,
and how it relates to and can be exploited algorithmically for SSL.Comment: 36th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (2020)
(Previously presented at the NeurIPS 2019 workshop "Do the right thing":
machine learning and causal inference for improved decision making,
Vancouver, Canada.
Causally-informed deep learning to improve climate models and projections
Climate models are essential to understand and project climate change, yet
long-standing biases and uncertainties in their projections remain. This is
largely associated with the representation of subgrid-scale processes,
particularly clouds and convection. Deep learning can learn these subgrid-scale
processes from computationally expensive storm-resolving models. Yet, climate
simulations with embedded neural network parameterizations are still
challenging and highly depend on the deep learning solution. This is likely
associated with spurious non-physical correlations learned by the neural
networks due to the complexity of the physical dynamical system. We apply a
causal discovery method to unveil key physical drivers in the set of input
predictors of atmospheric subgrid-scale processes of a superparameterized
climate model. We show that the climate simulations with causally-informed
neural network parameterizations clearly outperform the non-causal approach.
These results demonstrate that the combination of causal discovery and deep
learning helps removing spurious correlations and optimizing the neural network
algorithm
Discovering Causal Relations and Equations from Data
Physics is a field of science that has traditionally used the scientific
method to answer questions about why natural phenomena occur and to make
testable models that explain the phenomena. Discovering equations, laws and
principles that are invariant, robust and causal explanations of the world has
been fundamental in physical sciences throughout the centuries. Discoveries
emerge from observing the world and, when possible, performing interventional
studies in the system under study. With the advent of big data and the use of
data-driven methods, causal and equation discovery fields have grown and made
progress in computer science, physics, statistics, philosophy, and many applied
fields. All these domains are intertwined and can be used to discover causal
relations, physical laws, and equations from observational data. This paper
reviews the concepts, methods, and relevant works on causal and equation
discovery in the broad field of Physics and outlines the most important
challenges and promising future lines of research. We also provide a taxonomy
for observational causal and equation discovery, point out connections, and
showcase a complete set of case studies in Earth and climate sciences, fluid
dynamics and mechanics, and the neurosciences. This review demonstrates that
discovering fundamental laws and causal relations by observing natural
phenomena is being revolutionised with the efficient exploitation of
observational data, modern machine learning algorithms and the interaction with
domain knowledge. Exciting times are ahead with many challenges and
opportunities to improve our understanding of complex systems.Comment: 137 page
Data-driven causal analysis of observational biological time series
Complex systems are challenging to understand, especially when they defy manipulative experiments for practical or ethical reasons. Several fields have developed parallel approaches to infer causal relations from observational time series. Yet, these methods are easy to misunderstand and often controversial. Here, we provide an accessible and critical review of three statistical causal discovery approaches (pairwise correlation, Granger causality, and state space reconstruction), using examples inspired by ecological processes. For each approach, we ask what it tests for, what causal statement it might imply, and when it could lead us astray. We devise new ways of visualizing key concepts, describe some novel pathologies of existing methods, and point out how so-called âmodel-freeâ causality tests are not assumption-free. We hope that our synthesis will facilitate thoughtful application of methods, promote communication across different fields, and encourage explicit statements of assumptions. A video walkthrough is available (Video 1 or https://youtu.be/AIV0ttQrjK8)
A Survey on Causal Discovery: Theory and Practice
Understanding the laws that govern a phenomenon is the core of scientific
progress. This is especially true when the goal is to model the interplay
between different aspects in a causal fashion. Indeed, causal inference itself
is specifically designed to quantify the underlying relationships that connect
a cause to its effect. Causal discovery is a branch of the broader field of
causality in which causal graphs is recovered from data (whenever possible),
enabling the identification and estimation of causal effects. In this paper, we
explore recent advancements in a unified manner, provide a consistent overview
of existing algorithms developed under different settings, report useful tools
and data, present real-world applications to understand why and how these
methods can be fruitfully exploited
Teleosemantics and the free energy principle
The free energy principle is notoriously difficult to understand. In this paper, we relate the principle to a framework that philosophers of biology are familiar with: Ruth Millikanâs teleosemantics. We argue that: (i) systems that minimise free energy are systems with a proper function; and (ii) Karl Fristonâs notion of implicit modelling can be understood in terms of Millikanâs notion of mapping relations. Our analysis reveals some surprising formal similarities between the two frameworks, and suggests interesting lines of future research. We hope this will aid further philosophical evaluation of the free energy principle
- âŠ