Bipartite electronic SLA as a business framework to support cross-organization load management of real-time online applications

Online applications such as games and e-learning applications fall within the broader category of real-time online interactive applications (ROIA), a new class of ‘killer’ application for the Grid that is being investigated in the edutain@grid project. The two case studies in edutain@grid are an online game and an e-learning training application. We present a novel Grid-based business framework that makes use of bipartite service level agreements (SLAs) and dynamic invoice models to model complex business relationships in a massively scalable and flexible way. We support cross-organization load management at the business level, through zone migration. For evaluation we look at existing and extended value chains, the quality of service (QoS) metrics measured and the dynamic invoice models that support this work. We examine the causal links from customer quality of experience (QoE) and service provider quality of business (QoBiz) through to measured quality of service. Finally we discuss a shared reward business ecosystem and suggest how extended service level agreements and invoice models can support this

Online experimentation in automotive software engineering

Context: Online experimentation has long been the gold standard for evaluating software towards the actual needs and preferences of customers. In the Software-as-a-Service domain, various online experimentation techniques are applied and proven successful. As software is becoming the main differentiator for automotive products, the automotive sector has started to express an interest in adopting online experimentation to strengthen their software development process. Objective: In this research, we aim to systematically address the challenges in adopting online experimentation in the automotive domain.Method: We apply a multidisciplinary approach to this research. To understand the state-of-practise in online experimentation in the industry, we conduct case studies with three manufacturers. We introduce our experimental design and evaluation methods to real vehicles driven by customers at scale. Moreover, we run experiments to quantitatively evaluate experiment design and causal inference models. Results: Four main research outcomes are presented in this thesis. First, we propose an architecture for continuous online experimentation given the limitations experienced in the automotive domain. Second, after identifying an inherent limitation of sample sizes in the automotive domain, we apply and evaluate an experimentation design method. The method allows us to utilise pre-experimental data for generating balanced groups even when sample sizes are limited. Third, we present an alternative approach to randomised experiments and demonstrate the application of Bayesian causal inference in online software evaluation. With the models, we enable software online evaluation without the need for a fully randomised experiment. Finally, we relate the formal assumption in the Bayesian causal models to the implications in practise, and we demonstrate the inference models with cases from the automotive domain. Outlook: In our future work, we plan to explore causal structural and graphical models applied in software engineering, and demonstrate the application of causal discovery in machine learning-based autonomous drive software

A Common Misassumption in Online Experiments with Machine Learning Models

Online experiments such as Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) or A/B-tests are the bread and butter of modern platforms on the web. They are conducted continuously to allow platforms to estimate the causal effect of replacing system variant "A" with variant "B", on some metric of interest. These variants can differ in many aspects. In this paper, we focus on the common use-case where they correspond to machine learning models. The online experiment then serves as the final arbiter to decide which model is superior, and should thus be shipped. The statistical literature on causal effect estimation from RCTs has a substantial history, which contributes deservedly to the level of trust researchers and practitioners have in this "gold standard" of evaluation practices. Nevertheless, in the particular case of machine learning experiments, we remark that certain critical issues remain. Specifically, the assumptions that are required to ascertain that A/B-tests yield unbiased estimates of the causal effect, are seldom met in practical applications. We argue that, because variants typically learn using pooled data, a lack of model interference cannot be guaranteed. This undermines the conclusions we can draw from online experiments with machine learning models. We discuss the implications this has for practitioners, and for the research literature

Open problems in causal structure learning: A case study of COVID-19 in the UK

Causal machine learning (ML) algorithms recover graphical structures that tell us something about cause-and-effect relationships. The causal representation praovided by these algorithms enables transparency and explainability, which is necessary for decision making in critical real-world problems. Yet, causal ML has had limited impact in practice compared to associational ML. This paper investigates the challenges of causal ML with application to COVID-19 UK pandemic data. We collate data from various public sources and investigate what the various structure learning algorithms learn from these data. We explore the impact of different data formats on algorithms spanning different classes of learning, and assess the results produced by each algorithm, and groups of algorithms, in terms of graphical structure, model dimensionality, sensitivity analysis, confounding variables, predictive and interventional inference. We use these results to highlight open problems in causal structure learning and directions for future research. To facilitate future work, we make all graphs, models, data sets, and source code publicly available online

Role of Dopamine D2 Receptors in Human Reinforcement Learning

Influential neurocomputational models emphasize dopamine (DA) as an electrophysiological and neurochemical correlate of reinforcement learning. However, evidence of a specific causal role of DA receptors in learning has been less forthcoming, especially in humans. Here we combine, in a between-subjects design, administration of a high dose of the selective DA D2/3-receptor antagonist sulpiride with genetic analysis of the DA D2 receptor in a behavioral study of reinforcement learning in a sample of 78 healthy male volunteers. In contrast to predictions of prevailing models emphasizing DA's pivotal role in learning via prediction errors, we found that sulpiride did not disrupt learning, but rather induced profound impairments in choice performance. The disruption was selective for stimuli indicating reward, while loss avoidance performance was unaffected. Effects were driven by volunteers with higher serum levels of the drug, and in those with genetically-determined lower density of striatal DA D2 receptors. This is the clearest demonstration to date for a causal modulatory role of the DA D2 receptor in choice performance that might be distinct from learning. Our findings challenge current reward prediction error models of reinforcement learning, and suggest that classical animal models emphasizing a role of postsynaptic DA D2 receptors in motivational aspects of reinforcement learning may apply to humans as well.Neuropsychopharmacology accepted article peview online, 09 April 2014; doi:10.1038/npp.2014.84