Towards Thompson Sampling for Complex Bayesian Reasoning

Paper III, IV, and VI are not available as a part of the dissertation due to the copyright.Thompson Sampling (TS) is a state-of-art algorithm for bandit problems set in a Bayesian framework. Both the theoretical foundation and the empirical efficiency of TS is wellexplored for plain bandit problems. However, the Bayesian underpinning of TS means that TS could potentially be applied to other, more complex, problems as well, beyond the bandit problem, if suitable Bayesian structures can be found. The objective of this thesis is the development and analysis of TS-based schemes for more complex optimization problems, founded on Bayesian reasoning. We address several complex optimization problems where the previous state-of-art relies on a relatively myopic perspective on the problem. These includes stochastic searching on the line, the Goore game, the knapsack problem, travel time estimation, and equipartitioning. Instead of employing Bayesian reasoning to obtain a solution, they rely on carefully engineered rules. In all brevity, we recast each of these optimization problems in a Bayesian framework, introducing dedicated TS based solution schemes. For all of the addressed problems, the results show that besides being more effective, the TS based approaches we introduce are also capable of solving more adverse versions of the problems, such as dealing with stochastic liars.publishedVersio

On incorporating the paradigms of discretization and Bayesian estimation to create a new family of pursuit learning automata

There are currently two fundamental paradigms that have been used to enhance the convergence speed of Learning Automata (LA). The first involves the concept of utilizing the estimates of the reward probabilities, while the second involves discretizing the probability space in which the LA operates. This paper demonstrates how both of these can be simultaneously utilized, and in particular, by using the family of Bayesian estimates that have been proven to have distinct advantages over their maximum likelihood counterparts. The success of LA-based estimator algorithms over the classical, Linear Reward-Inaction (LRI)-like schemes, can be explained by their ability to pursue the actions with the highest reward probability estimates. Without access to reward probability estimates, it makes sense for schemes like the LRI to first make large exploring steps, and then to gradually turn exploration into exploitation by making progressively smaller learning steps. However, this behavior becomes counter-intuitive when pursuing actions based on their estimated reward probabilities. Learning should then ideally proceed in progressively larger steps, as the reward probability estimates turn more accurate. This paper introduces a new estimator algorithm, the Discretized Bayesian Pursuit Algorithm (DBPA), that achieves this by incorporating both the above paradigms. The DBPA is implemented by linearly discretizing the action probability space of the Bayesian Pursuit Algorithm (BPA) (Zhang et al. in IEA-AIE 2011, Springer, New York, pp. 608-620, 2011). The key innovation of this paper is that the linear discrete updating rules mitigate the counter-intuitive behavior of the corresponding linear continuous updating rules, by augmenting them with the reward probability estimates. Extensive experimental results show the superiority of DBPA over previous estimator algorithms. Indeed, the DBPA is probably the fastest reported LA to date. Apart from the rigorous experimental demonstration of the strength of the DBPA, the paper also briefly records the proofs of why the BPA and the DBPA are ε{lunate}-optimal in stationary environments

The design of absorbing Bayesian pursuit algorithms and the formal analyses of their ε-optimality

The fundamental phenomenon that has been used to enhance the convergence speed of learning automata (LA) is that of incorporating the running maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the action reward probabilities into the probability updating rules for selecting the actions. The frontiers of this field have been recently expanded by replacing the ML estimates with their corresponding Bayesian counterparts that incorporate the properties of the conjugate priors. These constitute the Bayesian pursuit algorithm (BPA), and the discretized Bayesian pursuit algorithm. Although these algorithms have been designed and efficiently implemented, and are, arguably, the fastest and most accurate LA reported in the literature, the proofs of their ϵϵ-optimal convergence has been unsolved. This is precisely the intent of this paper. In this paper, we present a single unifying analysis by which the proofs of both the continuous and discretized schemes are proven. We emphasize that unlike the ML-based pursuit schemes, the Bayesian schemes have to not only consider the estimates themselves but also the distributional forms of their conjugate posteriors and their higher order moments—all of which render the proofs to be particularly challenging. As far as we know, apart from the results themselves, the methodologies of this proof have been unreported in the literature—they are both pioneering and novel

Discretized Bayesian pursuit – A new scheme for reinforcement learning

The success of Learning Automata (LA)-based estimator algorithms over the classical, Linear Reward-Inaction ( L RI )-like schemes, can be explained by their ability to pursue the actions with the highest reward probability estimates. Without access to reward probability estimates, it makes sense for schemes like the L RI to first make large exploring steps, and then to gradually turn exploration into exploitation by making progressively smaller learning steps. However, this behavior becomes counter-intuitive when pursuing actions based on their estimated reward probabilities. Learning should then ideally proceed in progressively larger steps, as the reward probability estimates turn more accurate. This paper introduces a new estimator algorithm, the Discretized Bayesian Pursuit Algorithm (DBPA), that achieves this. The DBPA is implemented by linearly discretizing the action probability space of the Bayesian Pursuit Algorithm (BPA) [1]. The key innovation is that the linear discrete updating rules mitigate the counter-intuitive behavior of the corresponding linear continuous updating rules, by augmenting them with the reward probability estimates. Extensive experimental results show the superiority of DBPA over previous estimator algorithms. Indeed, the DBPA is probably the fastest reported LA to date

User grouping and power allocation in NOMA systems: a novel semi-supervised reinforcement learning-based solution

Author's accepted manuscriptIn this paper, we present a pioneering solution to the problem of user grouping and power allocation in non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) systems. The problem is highly pertinent because NOMA is a well-recognized technique for future mobile radio systems. The salient and difcult issues associated with NOMA systems involve the task of grouping users together into the prespecifed time slots, which are augmented with the question of determining how much power should be allocated to the respective users. This problem is, in and of itself, NP-hard. Our solution is the frst reported reinforcement learning (RL)-based solution, which attempts to resolve parts of this issue. In particular, we invoke the object migration automaton (OMA) and one of its variants to resolve the grouping in NOMA systems. Furthermore, unlike the solutions reported in the literature, we do not assume prior knowledge of the channels’ distributions, nor of their coefcients, to achieve the grouping/partitioning. Thereafter, we use the consequent groupings to heuristically infer the power allocation. The simulation results that we have obtained confrm that our learning scheme can follow the dynamics of the channel coefcients efciently, and that the solution is able to resolve the issue dynamicallyacceptedVersio

Solving Non-Stationary Bandit Problems by Random Sampling from Sibling Kalman Filters

The multi-armed bandit problem is a classical optimization problem where an agent sequentially pulls one of multiple arms attached to a gambling machine, with each pull resulting in a random reward. The reward distributions are unknown, and thus, one must balance between exploiting existing knowledge about the arms, and obtaining new information. Dynamically changing (non-stationary) bandit problems are particularly challenging because each change of the reward distributions may progressively degrade the performance of any fixed strategy. Although computationally intractable in many cases, Bayesian methods provide a standard for optimal decision making. This paper proposes a novel solution scheme for bandit problems with non-stationary normally distributed rewards. The scheme is inherently Bayesian in nature, yet avoids computational intractability by relying simply on updating the hyper parameters of sibling Kalman Filters, and on random sampling from these posteriors. Furthermore, it is able to track the better actions, thus supporting non-stationary bandit problems. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our scheme outperforms recently proposed bandit playing algorithms, not only in non-stationary environments, but in stationary environments also. Furthermore, our scheme is robust to inexact parameter settings. We thus believe that our methodology opens avenues for obtaining improved novel solutions

Thompson sampling guided stochastic searching on the line for deceptive environments with applications to root-finding problems

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