16,080 research outputs found

    Representing uncertainty in continental-scale gridded precipitation fields for agrometeorological modeling

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    This work proposes a relatively simple methodology for creating ensembles of precipitation inputs that are consistent with the spatial and temporal scale necessary for regional crop modeling. A high-quality reference precipitation dataset [the European Land Data Assimilation System (ELDAS)] was used as a basis to define the uncertainty in an operational precipitation database [the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS)]. The distributions of precipitation residuals (CGMS ¿ ELDAS) were determined for classes of CGMS precipitation and transformed to a Gaussian distribution using normal score transformations. In cases of zero CGMS precipitation, the occurrence of rainfall was controlled by an indicator variable. The resulting normal-score-transformed precipitation residuals appeared to be approximately multivariate Gaussian and exhibited strong spatial correlation; however, temporal correlation was very weak. An ensemble of 100 precipitation realizations was created based on back-transformed spatially correlated Gaussian residuals and indicator realizations. Quantile¿quantile plots of 100 realizations against the ELDAS reference data for selected sites revealed similar distributions (except for the 100th percentile, owing to some large residuals in the realizations). The semivariograms of realizations for sampled days showed considerable variability in the overall variance; the range of the spatial correlation was similar to that of the ELDAS reference dataset. The intermittency characteristics of wet and dry periods were reproduced well for most of the selected sites, but the method failed to reproduce the dry period statistics in semiarid areas (e.g., southern Spain). Finally, a case study demonstrates how rainfall ensembles can be used in operational crop modeling and crop yield forecasting

    Biomass-modulated fire dynamics during the last glacial-interglacial transition at the central pyrenees (Spain)

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    Understanding long-term fire ecology is essential for current day interpretation of ecosystem fire responses. However palaeoecology of fire is still poorly understood, especially at high-altitude mountain environments, despite the fact that these are fire-sensitive ecosystems and their resilience might be affected by changing fire regimes. We reconstruct wildfire occurrence since the Lateglacial (14.7. cal. ka BP) to the Mid-Holocene (6. cal. ka BP) and investigate the climate-fuel-fire relationships in a sedimentary sequence located at the treeline in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Pollen, macro- and micro-charcoal were analysed for the identification of fire events (FE) in order to detect vegetation post-fire response and to define biomass-fire interactions. mean fire intervals (mfi) reduced since the Lateglacial, peaking at 9-7.7. cal. ka BP while from 7.7 to 6. cal. ka BP no fire is recorded. We hypothesise that Early Holocene maximum summer insolation, as climate forcing, and mesophyte forest expansion, as a fuel-creating factor, were responsible for accelerating fire occurrence in the Central Pyrenees treeline. We also found that fire had long-lasting negative effects on most of the treeline plant communities and that forest contraction from 7.7. cal. ka BP is likely linked to the ecosystem's threshold response to high fire frequencies.This research has been funded by the projects DINAMO (CGL2009-07992) (funding EGPF — grant ref. BES-2010-038593 and MSC), DINAMO2 (CGL2012-33063), ARAFIRE (2012 GA LC 064), GRACCIE-CONSOLIDER (CSD2007-00067). GGR was funded by the Juan de la Cierva Program (grant ref. JCI2009-04345) and JAE-Doc CSIC Program, LLM was supported by a postdoctoral MINT fellowship funded by the Institute for the Environment (Brunel University), AMC is a Ramón y Cajal fellow (ref: RYC-2008-02431), APS holds a grant funded by the Aragon Government (ref. 17030G/5423/480072/14003) and JAE holds a grant funded by the Basque Country Government (BFI-2010-5)

    The economic consequences of the spanish Reconquest: The long-term effects of medieval conquest and colonization

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    This paper shows that a historical process that ended more than five centuries ago, the Reconquest, is very important to explain Spanish regional economic development down to the present day. An indicator measuring the rate of Reconquest reveals a heavily negative effect on current income differences across the Spanish provinces. A main intervening factor in the impact the Reconquest has had is the concentration of economic and political power in a few hands, excluding large segments of the population from access to economic opportunities when Spain entered the industrialization phase. The timing of the effect is consistent with this argument. A general implication of our analysis is that large frontier expansions may favor a political equilibrium among the colonizing agents that is biased toward the elite, creating the conditions for an inegalitarian society, with negative consequences for long-term economic developmenTUniversidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

    High genetic diversity at the extreme range edge: nucleotide variation at nuclear loci in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Scotland

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    Nucleotide polymorphism at 12 nuclear loci was studied in Scots pine populations across an environmental gradient in Scotland, to evaluate the impacts of demographic history and selection on genetic diversity. At eight loci, diversity patterns were compared between Scottish and continental European populations. At these loci, a similar level of diversity (θsil=~0.01) was found in Scottish vs mainland European populations, contrary to expectations for recent colonization, however, less rapid decay of linkage disequilibrium was observed in the former (ρ=0.0086±0.0009, ρ=0.0245±0.0022, respectively). Scottish populations also showed a deficit of rare nucleotide variants (multi-locus Tajima's D=0.316 vs D=−0.379) and differed significantly from mainland populations in allelic frequency and/or haplotype structure at several loci. Within Scotland, western populations showed slightly reduced nucleotide diversity (πtot=0.0068) compared with those from the south and east (0.0079 and 0.0083, respectively) and about three times higher recombination to diversity ratio (ρ/θ=0.71 vs 0.15 and 0.18, respectively). By comparison with results from coalescent simulations, the observed allelic frequency spectrum in the western populations was compatible with a relatively recent bottleneck (0.00175 × 4Ne generations) that reduced the population to about 2% of the present size. However, heterogeneity in the allelic frequency distribution among geographical regions in Scotland suggests that subsequent admixture of populations with different demographic histories may also have played a role

    Climate change and disaster impact reduction

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    Based on papers presented at the 'UK - South Asia Young Scientists and Practitioners Seminar on Climate Change and Disaster Impact Reduction' held at Kathmandu, Nepal on 5-6 June, 2008

    Revealing the last 13,500 years of environmental history from the multiproxy record of a mountain lake (Lago Enol, northern Iberian Peninsula)

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    This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10933-009-9387-7.We present the Holocene sequence from Lago Enol (43°16′N, 4°59′W, 1,070 m a.s.l.), Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain. A multiproxy analysis provided comprehensive information about regional humidity and temperature changes. The analysis included sedimentological descriptions, physical properties, organic carbon and carbonate content, mineralogy and geochemical composition together with biological proxies including diatom and ostracod assemblages. A detailed pollen study enabled reconstruction of variations in vegetation cover, which were interpreted in the context of climate changes and human impact. Four distinct stages were recognized for the last 13,500 years: (1) a cold and dry episode that includes the Younger Dryas event (13,500–11,600 cal. year BP); (2) a humid and warmer period characterizing the onset of the Holocene (11,600–8,700 cal. year BP); (3) a tendency toward a drier climate during the middle Holocene (8,700–4,650 cal. year BP); and (4) a return to humid conditions following landscape modification by human activity (pastoral activities, deforestation) in the late Holocene (4,650–2,200 cal. year BP). Superimposed on relatively stable landscape conditions (e.g. maintenance of well established forests), the typical environmental variability of the southern European region is observed at this site.The Spanish Inter-Ministry Commission of Science and Technology (CICYT), the Spanish National Parks agency, the European Commission, the Spanish Ministry of Science, and the European Social Fund

    Revealing the last 13,500 years of environmental history from the multiproxy record of a mountain lake (Lago Enol, northern Iberian Peninsula)

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    This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10933-009-9387-7.We present the Holocene sequence from Lago Enol (43°16′N, 4°59′W, 1,070 m a.s.l.), Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain. A multiproxy analysis provided comprehensive information about regional humidity and temperature changes. The analysis included sedimentological descriptions, physical properties, organic carbon and carbonate content, mineralogy and geochemical composition together with biological proxies including diatom and ostracod assemblages. A detailed pollen study enabled reconstruction of variations in vegetation cover, which were interpreted in the context of climate changes and human impact. Four distinct stages were recognized for the last 13,500 years: (1) a cold and dry episode that includes the Younger Dryas event (13,500–11,600 cal. year BP); (2) a humid and warmer period characterizing the onset of the Holocene (11,600–8,700 cal. year BP); (3) a tendency toward a drier climate during the middle Holocene (8,700–4,650 cal. year BP); and (4) a return to humid conditions following landscape modification by human activity (pastoral activities, deforestation) in the late Holocene (4,650–2,200 cal. year BP). Superimposed on relatively stable landscape conditions (e.g. maintenance of well established forests), the typical environmental variability of the southern European region is observed at this site.The Spanish Inter-Ministry Commission of Science and Technology (CICYT), the Spanish National Parks agency, the European Commission, the Spanish Ministry of Science, and the European Social Fund

    Western Mediterranean climate and environment since Marine Isotope Stage 3: a 50,000-year record from Lake Banyoles, Spain

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    We present new stable isotope (δ¹⁸Ocalcite and δ¹³ Ccalcite) and diatom data from a 67-m sediment core (BAN II) from Lake Banyoles, northeastern Spain. We reassessed the chronology of the sequence by correlating stable isotope data with a shorter U-series-dated record from the lake, confirming a sedimentological offset between the two cores and demonstrating that BAN II spans Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 3–1. Through comparison with previous records, the multi-proxy data are used to improve understanding of palaeolimnological dynamics and, by inference, western Mediterranean climate and environmental change during the past ca. 50,000 years. Three main zones, defined by isotope and diatom data, correspond to the MIS. The basal zone (MIS 3) is characterised by fluctuating δ¹⁸Ocalcite and benthic diatom abundance, indicating a high degree of environmental and climate variability, concomitant with large lake-level changes. During the full glacial (MIS 2), relatively constant δ¹⁸Ocalcite and a poorly preserved planktonic-dominated diatom assemblage suggest stability, and intermittently, unusually high lake level. In MIS 1, δ¹⁸Ocalcite and δ¹³Ccalcite initially transition to lower values, recording a pattern of Late Glacial to Holocene change that is similar to other Mediterranean records. This study suggests that Lake Banyoles responds limnologically to changes in the North Atlantic ocean–atmosphere system and provides an important dataset from the Iberian Peninsula, a region in need of longer-term records that can be used to correlate between marine and terrestrial archives, and between the western and eastern Mediterranean

    Dynamical phase coexistence: A simple solution to the "savanna problem"

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    We introduce the concept of 'dynamical phase coexistence' to provide a simple solution for a long-standing problem in theoretical ecology, the so-called "savanna problem". The challenge is to understand why in savanna ecosystems trees and grasses coexist in a robust way with large spatio-temporal variability. We propose a simple model, a variant of the Contact Process (CP), which includes two key extra features: varying external (environmental/rainfall) conditions and tree age. The system fluctuates locally between a woodland and a grassland phase, corresponding to the active and absorbing phases of the underlying pure contact process. This leads to a highly variable stable phase characterized by patches of the woodland and grassland phases coexisting dynamically. We show that the mean time to tree extinction under this model increases as a power-law of system size and can be of the order of 10,000,000 years in even moderately sized savannas. Finally, we demonstrate that while local interactions among trees may influence tree spatial distribution and the order of the transition between woodland and grassland phases, they do not affect dynamical coexistence. We expect dynamical coexistence to be relevant in other contexts in physics, biology or the social sciences.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in Journal of Theoretical Biolog

    A review of applied methods in Europe for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment

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    The report presents a review of methods used in Europe for trend analysis, climate change projections and non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. In addition, main findings of the analyses are presented, including a comparison of trend analysis results and climate change projections. Existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation that incorporate climate change are reviewed. The report concludes with a discussion of research needs on non-stationary frequency analysis for considering the effects of climate change and inclusion in design guidelines. Trend analyses are reported for 21 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. A large number of national and regional trend studies have been carried out. Most studies are based on statistical methods applied to individual time series of extreme precipitation or extreme streamflow using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test or regression analysis. Some studies have been reported that use field significance or regional consistency tests to analyse trends over larger areas. Some of the studies also include analysis of trend attribution. The studies reviewed indicate that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant increasing trends at regional or national level of extreme streamflow. For some smaller regions increases in extreme streamflow are reported. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows. Climate change projections have been reported for 14 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. The review shows various approaches for producing climate projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency based on alternative climate forcing scenarios, climate projections from available global and regional climate models, methods for statistical downscaling and bias correction, and alternative hydrological models. A large number of the reported studies are based on an ensemble modelling approach that use several climate forcing scenarios and climate model projections in order to address the uncertainty on the projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Some studies also include alternative statistical downscaling and bias correction methods and hydrological modelling approaches. Most studies reviewed indicate an increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trend of extreme precipitation. Hydrological projections of peak flows and flood frequency show both positive and negative changes. Large increases in peak flows are reported for some catchments with rainfall-dominated peak flows, whereas a general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are reported for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows. The latter is consistent with the observed trends. The review of existing guidelines in Europe on design floods and design rainfalls shows that only few countries explicitly address climate change. These design guidelines are based on climate change adjustment factors to be applied to current design estimates and may depend on design return period and projection horizon. The review indicates a gap between the need for considering climate change impacts in design and actual published guidelines that incorporate climate change in extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Most of the studies reported are based on frequency analysis assuming stationary conditions in a certain time window (typically 30 years) representing current and future climate. There is a need for developing more consistent non-stationary frequency analysis methods that can account for the transient nature of a changing climate
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