735 research outputs found

    Modelling and solution methods for portfolio optimisation

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    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University, 16/01/2004.In this thesis modelling and solution methods for portfolio optimisation are presented. The investigations reported in this thesis extend the Markowitz mean-variance model to the domain of quadratic mixed integer programming (QMIP) models which are 'NP-hard' discrete optimisation problems. In addition to the modelling extensions a number of challenging aspects of solution algorithms are considered. The relative performances of sparse simplex (SSX) as well as the interior point method (IPM) are studied in detail. In particular, the roles of 'warmstart' and dual simplex are highlighted as applied to the construction of the efficient frontier which requires processing a family of problems; that is, the portfolio planning model stated in a parametric form. The method of solving QMIP models using the branch and bound algorithm is first developed; this is followed up by heuristics which improve the performance of the (discrete) solution algorithm. Some properties of the efficient frontier with discrete constraints are considered and a method of computing the discrete efficient frontier (DEF) efficiently is proposed. The computational investigation considers the efficiency and effectiveness in respect of the scale up properties of the proposed algorithm. The extensions of the real world models and the proposed solution algorithms make contribution as new knowledge

    Modelling and solution methods for portfolio optimisation

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    In this thesis modelling and solution methods for portfolio optimisation are presented. The investigations reported in this thesis extend the Markowitz mean-variance model to the domain of quadratic mixed integer programming (QMIP) models which are 'NP-hard' discrete optimisation problems. In addition to the modelling extensions a number of challenging aspects of solution algorithms are considered. The relative performances of sparse simplex (SSX) as well as the interior point method (IPM) are studied in detail. In particular, the roles of 'warmstart' and dual simplex are highlighted as applied to the construction of the efficient frontier which requires processing a family of problems; that is, the portfolio planning model stated in a parametric form. The method of solving QMIP models using the branch and bound algorithm is first developed; this is followed up by heuristics which improve the performance of the (discrete) solution algorithm. Some properties of the efficient frontier with discrete constraints are considered and a method of computing the discrete efficient frontier (DEF) efficiently is proposed. The computational investigation considers the efficiency and effectiveness in respect of the scale up properties of the proposed algorithm. The extensions of the real world models and the proposed solution algorithms make contribution as new knowledge.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

    Evolutionary approaches for portfolio optimization

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    Portfolio optimization involves the optimal assignment of limited capital to different available financial assets to achieve a reasonable trade-off between profit and risk objectives. Markowitz’s mean variance (MV) model is widely regarded as the foundation of modern portfolio theory and provides a quantitative framework for portfolio optimization problems. In real market, investors commonly face real-world trading restrictions and it requires that the constructed portfolios have to meet trading constraints. When additional constraints are added to the basic MV model, the problem thus becomes more complex and the exact optimization approaches run into difficulties to deliver solutions within reasonable time for large problem size. By introducing the cardinality constraint alone already transformed the classic quadratic optimization model into a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem which is an NP-hard problem. Evolutionary algorithms, a class of metaheuristics, are one of the known alternatives for optimization problems that are too complex to be solved using deterministic techniques. This thesis focuses on single-period portfolio optimization problems with practical trading constraints and two different risk measures. Four hybrid evolutionary algorithms are presented to efficiently solve these problems with gradually more complex real world constraints. In the first part of the thesis, the mean variance portfolio model is investigated by taking into account real-world constraints. A hybrid evolutionary algorithm (PBILDE) for portfolio optimization with cardinality and quantity constraints is presented. The proposed PBILDE is able to achieve a strong synergetic effect through hybridization of PBIL and DE. A partially guided mutation and an elitist update strategy are proposed in order to promote the efficient convergence of PBILDE. Its effectiveness is evaluated and compared with other existing algorithms over a number of datasets. A multi-objective scatter search with archive (MOSSwA) algorithm for portfolio optimization with cardinality, quantity and pre-assignment constraints is then presented. New subset generations and solution combination methods are proposed to generate efficient and diverse portfolios. A learning-guided multi-objective evolutionary (MODEwAwL) algorithm for the portfolio optimization problems with cardinality, quantity, pre-assignment and round lot constraints is presented. A learning mechanism is introduced in order to extract important features from the set of elite solutions. Problem-specific selection heuristics are introduced in order to identify high-quality solutions with a reduced computational cost. An efficient and effective candidate generation scheme utilizing a learning mechanism, problem specific heuristics and effective direction-based search methods is proposed to guide the search towards the promising regions of the search space. In the second part of the thesis, an alternative risk measure, VaR, is considered. A non-parametric mean-VaR model with six practical trading constraints is investigated. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm with guided learning (MODE-GL) is presented for the mean-VaR model. Two different variants of DE mutation schemes in the solution generation scheme are proposed in order to promote the exploration of the search towards the least crowded region of the solution space. Experimental results using historical daily financial market data from S &P 100 and S & P 500 indices are presented. When the cardinality constraints are considered, incorporating a learning mechanism significantly promotes the efficient convergence of the search

    Chance-constrained cost efficiency in data envelopment analysis model with random inputs and outputs

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    Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a well-known non-parametric technique primarily used to estimate radial efficiency under a set of mild assumptions regarding the production possibility set and the production function. The technical efficiency measure can be complemented with a consistent radial metrics for cost, revenue and profit efficiency in DEA, but only for the setting with known input and output prices. In many real applications of performance measurement, such as the evaluation of utilities, banks and supply chain operations, the input and/or output data are often stochastic and linked to exogenous random variables. It is known from standard results in stochastic programming that rankings of stochastic functions are biased if expected values are used for key parameters. In this paper, we propose economic efficiency measures for stochastic data with known input and output prices. We transform the stochastic economic efficiency models into a deterministic equivalent non-linear form that can be simplified to a deterministic programming with quadratic constraints. An application for a cost minimizing planning problem of a state government in the US is presented to illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework

    Optimal Portfolio Selection Under the Estimation Risk in Mean Return

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    This thesis investigates robust techniques for mean-variance (MV) portfolio optimization problems under the estimation risk in mean return. We evaluate the performance of the optimal portfolios generated by the min-max robust MV portfolio optimization model. With an ellipsoidal uncertainty set based on the statistics of the sample mean estimates, minmax robust portfolios equal to the ones from the standard MV model based on the nominal mean estimates but with larger risk aversion parameters. With an interval uncertainty set for mean return, min-max robust portfolios can vary significantly with the initial data used to generate the uncertainty set. In addition, by focusing on the worst-case scenario in the mean return uncertainty set, min-max robust portfolios can be too conservative and unable to achieve a high return. Adjusting the conservatism level of min-max robust portfolios can only be achieved by excluding poor mean return scenarios from the uncertainty set, which runs counter to the principle of min-max robustness. We propose a CVaR robust MV portfolio optimization model in which the estimation risk is measured by the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We show that, using CVaR to quantify the estimation risk in mean return, the conservatism level of CVaR robust portfolios can be more naturally adjusted by gradually including better mean return scenarios. Moreover, we compare min-max robust portfolios (with an interval uncertainty set for mean return) and CVaR robust portfolios in terms of actual frontier variation, portfolio efficiency, and portfolio diversification. Finally, a computational method based on a smoothing technique is implemented to solve the optimization problem in the CVaR robust model. We numerically show that, compared with the quadratic programming (QP) approach, the smoothing approach is more computationally efficient for computing CVaR robust portfolios

    Evolutionary approaches for portfolio optimization

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    Portfolio optimization involves the optimal assignment of limited capital to different available financial assets to achieve a reasonable trade-off between profit and risk objectives. Markowitz’s mean variance (MV) model is widely regarded as the foundation of modern portfolio theory and provides a quantitative framework for portfolio optimization problems. In real market, investors commonly face real-world trading restrictions and it requires that the constructed portfolios have to meet trading constraints. When additional constraints are added to the basic MV model, the problem thus becomes more complex and the exact optimization approaches run into difficulties to deliver solutions within reasonable time for large problem size. By introducing the cardinality constraint alone already transformed the classic quadratic optimization model into a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem which is an NP-hard problem. Evolutionary algorithms, a class of metaheuristics, are one of the known alternatives for optimization problems that are too complex to be solved using deterministic techniques. This thesis focuses on single-period portfolio optimization problems with practical trading constraints and two different risk measures. Four hybrid evolutionary algorithms are presented to efficiently solve these problems with gradually more complex real world constraints. In the first part of the thesis, the mean variance portfolio model is investigated by taking into account real-world constraints. A hybrid evolutionary algorithm (PBILDE) for portfolio optimization with cardinality and quantity constraints is presented. The proposed PBILDE is able to achieve a strong synergetic effect through hybridization of PBIL and DE. A partially guided mutation and an elitist update strategy are proposed in order to promote the efficient convergence of PBILDE. Its effectiveness is evaluated and compared with other existing algorithms over a number of datasets. A multi-objective scatter search with archive (MOSSwA) algorithm for portfolio optimization with cardinality, quantity and pre-assignment constraints is then presented. New subset generations and solution combination methods are proposed to generate efficient and diverse portfolios. A learning-guided multi-objective evolutionary (MODEwAwL) algorithm for the portfolio optimization problems with cardinality, quantity, pre-assignment and round lot constraints is presented. A learning mechanism is introduced in order to extract important features from the set of elite solutions. Problem-specific selection heuristics are introduced in order to identify high-quality solutions with a reduced computational cost. An efficient and effective candidate generation scheme utilizing a learning mechanism, problem specific heuristics and effective direction-based search methods is proposed to guide the search towards the promising regions of the search space. In the second part of the thesis, an alternative risk measure, VaR, is considered. A non-parametric mean-VaR model with six practical trading constraints is investigated. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm with guided learning (MODE-GL) is presented for the mean-VaR model. Two different variants of DE mutation schemes in the solution generation scheme are proposed in order to promote the exploration of the search towards the least crowded region of the solution space. Experimental results using historical daily financial market data from S &P 100 and S & P 500 indices are presented. When the cardinality constraints are considered, incorporating a learning mechanism significantly promotes the efficient convergence of the search

    A singular value decomposition based approach to handle ill-conditioning in optimization problems with applications to portfolio theory.

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    We identify a source of numerical instability of quadratic programming problems that is hidden in its linear equality constraints. We propose a new theoretical approach to rewrite the original optimization problem in an equivalent reformulation using the singular value decomposition and substituting the ill-conditioned original matrix of the restrictions with a suitable optimally conditioned one. The proposed novel approach is showed, both empirically and theoretically, to solve ill-conditioning related numerical issues, not only when they depend on bad scaling and are relative easy to handle, but also when they result from almost collinearity or when numerically rank-deficient matrices are involved. Furthermore, our strategy looks very promising even when additional inequality constraints are considered in the optimization problem, as it occurs in several practical applications. In this framework, even if no closed form solution is available, we show, through empirical evidence, how the equivalent reformulation of the original problem greatly improves the performances of MatLab®’s quadratic programming solver and Gurobi®. The experimental validation is provided through numerical examples performed on real financial data in the portfolio optimization context

    Portfolio optimisation with transaction cost

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    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Portfolio selection is an example of decision making under conditions of uncertainty. In the face of an unknown future, fund managers make complex financial choices based on the investors perceptions and preferences towards risk and return. Since the seminal work of Markowitz, many studies have been published using his mean-variance (MV) model as a basis. These mathematical models of investor attitudes and asset return dynamics aid in the portfolio selection process. In this thesis we extend the MV model to include the cardinality constraints which limit the number of assets held in the portfolio and bounds on the proportion of an asset held (if any is held). We present our formulation based on the Markowitz MV model for rebalancing an existing portfolio subject to both fixed and variable transaction cost (the fee associated with trading). We determine and demonstrate the differences that arise in the shape of the trading portfolio and efficient frontiers when subject to non-cardinality and cardinality constrained transaction cost models. We apply our flexible heuristic algorithms of genetic algorithm, tabu search and simulated annealing to both the cardinality constrained and transaction cost models to solve problems using data from seven real world market indices. We show that by incorporating optimization into the generation of valid portfolios leads to good quality solutions in acceptable computational time. We illustrate this on problems from literature as well as on our own larger data sets

    Methods and Algorithms for Economic MPC in Power Production Planning

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