Adaptive prediction models for data center resources utilization estimation

Accurate estimation of data center resource utilization is a challenging task due to multi-tenant co-hosted applications having dynamic and time-varying workloads. Accurate estimation of future resources utilization helps in better job scheduling, workload placement, capacity planning, proactive auto-scaling, and load balancing. The inaccurate estimation leads to either under or over-provisioning of data center resources. Most existing estimation methods are based on a single model that often does not appropriately estimate different workload scenarios. To address these problems, we propose a novel method to adaptively and automatically identify the most appropriate model to accurately estimate data center resources utilization. The proposed approach trains a classifier based on statistical features of historical resources usage to decide the appropriate prediction model to use for given resource utilization observations collected during a specific time interval. We evaluated our approach on real datasets and compared the results with multiple baseline methods. The experimental evaluation shows that the proposed approach outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches and delivers 6% to 27% improved resource utilization estimation accuracy compared to baseline methods.This work is partially supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the EU Horizon 2020 programme (GA 639595), the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (TIN2015-65316-P and IJCI2016-27485), the Generalitat de Catalunya (2014-SGR-1051), and NPRP grant # NPRP9-224-1-049 from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation) and University of the Punjab, Pakistan.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Data center's telemetry reduction and prediction through modeling techniques

Nowadays, Cloud Computing is widely used to host and deliver services over the Internet. The architecture of clouds is complex due to its heterogeneous nature of hardware and is hosted in large scale data centers. To effectively and efficiently manage such complex infrastructure, constant monitoring is needed. This monitoring generates large amounts of telemetry data streams (e.g. hardware utilization metrics) which are used for multiple purposes including problem detection, resource management, workload characterization, resource utilization prediction, capacity planning, and job scheduling. These telemetry streams require costly bandwidth utilization and storage space particularly at medium-long term for large data centers. Moreover, accurate future estimation of these telemetry streams is a challenging task due to multi-tenant co-hosted applications and dynamic workloads. The inaccurate estimation leads to either under or over-provisioning of data center resources. In this Ph.D. thesis, we propose to improve the prediction accuracy and reduce the bandwidth utilization and storage space requirement with the help of modeling and prediction methods from machine learning. Most of the existing methods are based on a single model which often does not appropriately estimate different workload scenarios. Moreover, these prediction methods use a fixed size of observation windows which cannot produce accurate results because these are not adaptively adjusted to capture the local trends in the recent data. Therefore, the estimation method trains on fixed sliding windows use an irrelevant large number of observations which yields inaccurate estimations. In summary, we C1) efficiently reduce bandwidth and storage for telemetry data through real-time modeling using Markov chain model. C2) propose a novel method to adaptively and automatically identify the most appropriate model to accurately estimate data center resources utilization. C3) propose a deep learning-based adaptive window size selection method which dynamically limits the sliding window size to capture the local trend in the latest resource utilization for building estimation model.Hoy en día, Cloud Computing se usa ampliamente para alojar y prestar servicios a través de Internet. La arquitectura de las nubes es compleja debido a su naturaleza heterogénea del hardware y está alojada en centros de datos a gran escala. Para administrar de manera efectiva y eficiente dicha infraestructura compleja, se necesita un monitoreo constante. Este monitoreo genera grandes cantidades de flujos de datos de telemetría (por ejemplo, métricas de utilización de hardware) que se utilizan para múltiples propósitos, incluyendo detección de problemas, gestión de recursos, caracterización de carga de trabajo, predicción de utilización de recursos, planificación de capacidad y programación de trabajos. Estas transmisiones de telemetría requieren una utilización costosa del ancho de banda y espacio de almacenamiento, particularmente a mediano y largo plazo para grandes centros de datos. Además, la estimación futura precisa de estas transmisiones de telemetría es una tarea difícil debido a las aplicaciones cohospedadas de múltiples inquilinos y las cargas de trabajo dinámicas. La estimación inexacta conduce a un suministro insuficiente o excesivo de los recursos del centro de datos. En este Ph.D. En la tesis, proponemos mejorar la precisión de la predicción y reducir la utilización del ancho de banda y los requisitos de espacio de almacenamiento con la ayuda de métodos de modelado y predicción del aprendizaje automático. La mayoría de los métodos existentes se basan en un modelo único que a menudo no estima adecuadamente diferentes escenarios de carga de trabajo. Además, estos métodos de predicción utilizan un tamaño fijo de ventanas de observación que no pueden producir resultados precisos porque no se ajustan adaptativamente para capturar las tendencias locales en los datos recientes. Por lo tanto, el método de estimación entrena en ventanas corredizas fijas utiliza un gran número de observaciones irrelevantes que produce estimaciones inexactas. En resumen, C1) reducimos eficientemente el ancho de banda y el almacenamiento de datos de telemetría a través del modelado en tiempo real utilizando el modelo de cadena de Markov. C2) proponer un método novedoso para identificar de forma adaptativa y automática el modelo más apropiado para estimar con precisión la utilización de los recursos del centro de datos. C3) proponer un método de selección de tamaño de ventana adaptativo basado en el aprendizaje profundo que limita dinámicamente el tamaño de ventana deslizante para capturar la tendencia local en la última utilización de recursos para el modelo de estimación de construcción.Postprint (published version

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk managemen