6,425 research outputs found
A statistical network analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Cuba
The Cuban contact-tracing detection system set up in 1986 allowed the
reconstruction and analysis of the sexual network underlying the epidemic
(5,389 vertices and 4,073 edges, giant component of 2,386 nodes and 3,168
edges), shedding light onto the spread of HIV and the role of contact-tracing.
Clustering based on modularity optimization provides a better visualization and
understanding of the network, in combination with the study of covariates. The
graph has a globally low but heterogeneous density, with clusters of high
intraconnectivity but low interconnectivity. Though descriptive, our results
pave the way for incorporating structure when studying stochastic SIR epidemics
spreading on social networks
Exploring dependence between categorical variables: benefits and limitations of using variable selection within Bayesian clustering in relation to log-linear modelling with interaction terms
This manuscript is concerned with relating two approaches that can be used to
explore complex dependence structures between categorical variables, namely
Bayesian partitioning of the covariate space incorporating a variable selection
procedure that highlights the covariates that drive the clustering, and
log-linear modelling with interaction terms. We derive theoretical results on
this relation and discuss if they can be employed to assist log-linear model
determination, demonstrating advantages and limitations with simulated and real
data sets. The main advantage concerns sparse contingency tables. Inferences
from clustering can potentially reduce the number of covariates considered and,
subsequently, the number of competing log-linear models, making the exploration
of the model space feasible. Variable selection within clustering can inform on
marginal independence in general, thus allowing for a more efficient
exploration of the log-linear model space. However, we show that the clustering
structure is not informative on the existence of interactions in a consistent
manner. This work is of interest to those who utilize log-linear models, as
well as practitioners such as epidemiologists that use clustering models to
reduce the dimensionality in the data and to reveal interesting patterns on how
covariates combine.Comment: Preprin
Multiscale Markov Decision Problems: Compression, Solution, and Transfer Learning
Many problems in sequential decision making and stochastic control often have
natural multiscale structure: sub-tasks are assembled together to accomplish
complex goals. Systematically inferring and leveraging hierarchical structure,
particularly beyond a single level of abstraction, has remained a longstanding
challenge. We describe a fast multiscale procedure for repeatedly compressing,
or homogenizing, Markov decision processes (MDPs), wherein a hierarchy of
sub-problems at different scales is automatically determined. Coarsened MDPs
are themselves independent, deterministic MDPs, and may be solved using
existing algorithms. The multiscale representation delivered by this procedure
decouples sub-tasks from each other and can lead to substantial improvements in
convergence rates both locally within sub-problems and globally across
sub-problems, yielding significant computational savings. A second fundamental
aspect of this work is that these multiscale decompositions yield new transfer
opportunities across different problems, where solutions of sub-tasks at
different levels of the hierarchy may be amenable to transfer to new problems.
Localized transfer of policies and potential operators at arbitrary scales is
emphasized. Finally, we demonstrate compression and transfer in a collection of
illustrative domains, including examples involving discrete and continuous
statespaces.Comment: 86 pages, 15 figure
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