Between order and disorder: a 'weak law' on recent electoral behavior among urban voters?

A new viewpoint on electoral involvement is proposed from the study of the statistics of the proportions of abstentionists, blank and null, and votes according to list of choices, in a large number of national elections in different countries. Considering 11 countries without compulsory voting (Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Spain and Switzerland), a stylized fact emerges for the most populated cities when one computes the entropy associated to the three ratios, which we call the entropy of civic involvement of the electorate. The distribution of this entropy (over all elections and countries) appears to be sharply peaked near a common value. This almost common value is typically shared since the 1970's by electorates of the most populated municipalities, and this despite the wide disparities between voting systems and types of elections. Performing different statistical analyses, we notably show that this stylized fact reveals particular correlations between the blank/null votes and abstentionists ratios. We suggest that the existence of this hidden regularity, which we propose to coin as a `weak law on recent electoral behavior among urban voters', reveals an emerging collective behavioral norm characteristic of urban citizen voting behavior in modern democracies. Analyzing exceptions to the rule provide insights into the conditions under which this normative behavior can be expected to occur.Comment: Version 1: main text 19 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables; Supporting Information: 19 pages. Version 2: minor correction

Exit Polling in Canada: An Experiment

Although exit polling has not been used to study Canadian elections before, such polls have methodological features that make them a potentially useful complement to data collected through more conventional designs. This paper reports on an experiment with exit polling in one constituency in the 2003 Ontario provincial election. Using student volunteers, a research team at Wilfrid Laurier University conducted an exit poll in the bellwether constituency of Kitchener Centre to assess the feasibility of mounting this kind of study on a broader scale. The experiment was successful in a number of respects. It produced a sample of 653 voters that broadly reflected the partisan character of the constituency, and which can hence be used to shed light on patterns of vote-switching and voter motivations in that constituency. It also yielded insights about best practices in mounting an exit poll in the Ontario context, as well as about the potential for using wireless communication devices to transmit respondent data from the field. The researchers conclude that exit polling on a limited basis (selected constituencies) is feasible, but the costs and logistics associated with this methodology make a province-wide or country-wide study unsupportable at present

Information, Candidate Selection, and the Quality of Representation: Evidence from Nepal

How do we improve the quality of representation in new democracies? This paper studies candidate selection by party leaders and asks whether poor information about public preferences can lead elite choices to diverge from mass opinion. Working with a political party in Nepal, we show that while elites value voter preferences, these preferences only explain one third of elite candidate selection. Next, we embed an experiment in actual candidate selection deliberations for this party and find that party leaders not only select different candidates when polling data are presented to them, but that their updated decisions also improve the party’s vote share. By opening the black-box of candidate selection, this paper demonstrates that closing the information gap between elites and voters has the power to improve the quality of representation

FHCF: A simple and efficient scheduling scheme for IEEE 802.11e wireless networks

The IEEE 802.11e medium access control (MAC) layer protocol is an emerging standard to support quality of service (QoS) in 802.11 wireless networks. Some recent works show that the 802.11e hybrid coordination function (HCF) can improve signi¯cantly the QoS support in 802.11 networks. A simple HCF referenced scheduler has been proposed in the 802.11e which takes into account the QoS requirements of °ows and allocates time to stations on the basis of the mean sending rate. As we show in this paper, this HCF referenced scheduling algorithm is only e±cient and works well for °ows with strict constant bit rate (CBR) characteristics. However, a lot of real-time applications, such as videoconferencing, have some variations in their packet sizes, sending rates or even have variable bit rate (VBR) characteristics. In this paper we propose FHCF, a simple and e±cient scheduling algorithm for 802.11e that aims to be fair for both CBR and VBR °ows. FHCF uses queue length estimations to tune its time allocation to mobile stations. We present analytical model evaluations and a set of simulations results, and provide performance comparisons with the 802.11e HCF referenced scheduler. Our performance study indicates that FHCF provides good fairness while supporting bandwidth and delay requirements for a large range of network loads