Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk

This paper presents recommended methodologies for the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk at different spatial scales (site-specific, local, regional and national), as well as for the verification and validation of the results. The methodologies described focus on the evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different landslide types with certain characteristics. Methods used to determine the spatial distribution of landslide intensity, the characterisation of the elements at risk, the assessment of the potential degree of damage and the quantification of the vulnerability of the elements at risk, and those used to perform the quantitative risk analysis are also described. The paper is intended for use by scientists and practising engineers, geologists and other landslide experts.JRC.H.5-Land Resources Managemen

Modeling Typhoon Event-Induced Landslides Using GIS-Based Logistic Regression: A Case Study of Alishan Forestry Railway, Taiwan

This study develops a model for evaluating the hazard level of landslides at Alishan Forestry Railway, Taiwan, by using logistic regression with the assistance of a geographical information system (GIS). A typhoon event-induced landslide inventory, independent variables, and a triggering factor were used to build the model. The environmental factors such as bedrock lithology from the geology database; topographic aspect, terrain roughness, profile curvature, and distance to river, from the topographic database; and the vegetation index value from SPOT 4 satellite images were used as variables that influence landslide occurrence. The area under curve (AUC) of a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was used to validate the model. Effects of parameters on landslide occurrence were assessed from the corresponding coefficient that appears in the logistic regression function. Thereafter, the model was applied to predict the probability of landslides for rainfall data of different return periods. Using a predicted map of probability, the study area was classified into four ranks of landslide susceptibility: low, medium, high, and very high. As a result, most high susceptibility areas are located on the western portion of the study area. Several train stations and railways are located on sites with a high susceptibility ranking

Impacts of anthropogenic and environmental factors on the occurrence of shallow landslides in an alpine catchment (Urseren Valley, Switzerland)

Changes in climate and land use pose a risk to stability of alpine soils, but the direction and magnitude of the impact is still discussed controversially with respect to the various alpine regions. In this study, we explicitly consider the influence of dynamic human-induced changes on the occurrence of landslides in addition to natural factors. Our hypothesis was that if changes in land use and climate have a significant influence on the occurrence of landslides we would see a trend in the incidence of landslides over time. We chose the Urseren Valley in the Central Swiss Alps as investigation site because the valley is dramatically affected by landslides and the land use history is well documented. Maps of several environmental factors were used to analyse the spatial landslide pattern. In order to explain the causation of the temporal variation, time-series (45 years) of precipitation characteristics, cattle stocking and pasture maps were compared to a series of seven landslide investigation maps between 1959 and 2004. We found that the area affected by landslides increased by 92% from 1959 to 2004. Even though catchment characteristics like geology and slope largely explain the spatial variation in landslide susceptibility (68%), this cannot explain the temporal trend in landslide activity. The increase in stocking numbers and the increased intensity of torrential rain events had most likely an influence on landslide incidence. In addition, our data and interviews with farmers pointed to the importance of management practice

Semi-automated geomorphological mapping applied to landslide hazard analysis

Computer-assisted three-dimensional (3D) mapping using stereo and multi-image (“softcopy”) photogrammetry is shown to enhance the visual interpretation of geomorphology in steep terrain with the direct benefit of greater locational accuracy than traditional manual mapping. This would benefit multi-parameter correlations between terrain attributes and landslide distribution in both direct and indirect forms of landslide hazard assessment. Case studies involve synthetic models of a landslide, and field studies of a rock slope and steep undeveloped hillsides with both recently formed and partly degraded, old landslide scars. Diagnostic 3D morphology was generated semi-automatically both using a terrain-following cursor under stereo-viewing and from high resolution digital elevation models created using area-based image correlation, further processed with curvature algorithms. Laboratory-based studies quantify limitations of area-based image correlation for measurement of 3D points on planar surfaces with varying camera orientations. The accuracy of point measurement is shown to be non-linear with limiting conditions created by both narrow and wide camera angles and moderate obliquity of the target plane. Analysis of the results with the planar surface highlighted problems with the controlling parameters of the area-based image correlation process when used for generating DEMs from images obtained with a low-cost digital camera. Although the specific cause of the phase-wrapped image artefacts identified was not found, the procedure would form a suitable method for testing image correlation software, as these artefacts may not be obvious in DEMs of non-planar surfaces.Modelling of synthetic landslides shows that Fast Fourier Transforms are an efficient method for removing noise, as produced by errors in measurement of individual DEM points, enabling diagnostic morphological terrain elements to be extracted. Component landforms within landslides are complex entities and conversion of the automatically-defined morphology into geomorphology was only achieved with manual interpretation; however, this interpretation was facilitated by softcopy-driven stereo viewing of the morphological entities across the hillsides.In the final case study of a large landslide within a man-made slope, landslide displacements were measured using a photogrammetric model consisting of 79 images captured with a helicopter-borne, hand-held, small format digital camera. Displacement vectors and a thematic geomorphological map were superimposed over an animated, 3D photo-textured model to aid non-stereo visualisation and communication of results

Application of geospatial tools for landslide hazard assessment for Uganda

The need to predict possible occurrence of landslides is increasingly becoming a concern of governments and humanitarian bodies in developing countries. The occurrence of landslides and other related disasters in Uganda requires a shift from the current disaster management approach where interventions come into play following the disaster, towards a better approach where mitigation measures are planned before the disaster. In Uganda, studies that utilize spatial technologies to develop tools to support landslide disaster prediction have been limited by the problem of spatial data suitability and availability. This paper explores the suitability of the available spatial datasets as inputs into GIS-based landslide risk assessment in Uganda. The datasets used in this study included digital elevation model, soils, precipitation, vegetation cover and population. The relative importance of datasets was established by a combination of literature review, expert opinion and pair wise comparison technique. Through GIS tools, a prediction map was generated that showed risk levels of various areas in Uganda. The results from GIS analysis showed that the areas of highest risk included mountain slopes associated with high rainfall and clayey soils. The predicted high risk areas coincided with areas where landslides have recently occurred. On the basis of this, it was concluded that the current spatial datasets in Uganda, combined with data in the public domain could still be useful in providing reasonable predictions about landslides at a national level. The results of this research demonstrate the need to incorporate the use of geospatial tools in Uganda’s disaster management strategies

Quantitative Risk Assessment as Applied to Natural Terrain Landslide Hazard Management in a Mid-levels Catchment, Hong Kong

This paper presents a case study of the application of quantitative risk assessment techniques to a site-specific natural terrain hazard study in Hong Kong. The development of the landslide hazard and susceptibility models is described and salient details of the consequence model are given, including the assessment of debris flowpaths and runout using state-of-the-art Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and debris runout computer models. A synthesis of the risk quantification process and schematic design of risk mitigation works is presented

Soil erosion in the Alps : causes and risk assessment

The issue of soil erosion in the Alps has long been neglected due to the low economic value of the agricultural land. However, soil stability is a key parameter which affects ecosystem services like slope stability, water budgets (drinking water reservoirs as well as flood prevention), vegetation productivity, ecosystem biodiversity and nutrient production. In alpine regions, spatial estimates on soil erosion are difficult to derive because the highly heterogeneous biogeophysical structure impedes measurement of soil erosion and the applicability of soil erosion models. However, remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) methods allow for spatial estimation of soil erosion by direct detection of erosion features and supply of input data for soil erosion models. Thus, the main objective of this work is to address the problem of soil erosion risk assessment in the Alps on catchment scale with remote sensing and GIS tools. Regarding soil erosion processes the focus is on soil erosion by water (here sheet erosion) and gravity (here landslides). For these two processes we address i) the monitoring and mapping of the erosion features and related causal factors ii) soil erosion risk assessment with special emphasis on iii) the validation of existing models for alpine areas. All investigations were accomplished in the Urseren Valley (Central Swiss Alps) where the valley slopes are dramatically affected by sheet erosion and landslides. For landslides, a natural susceptibility of the catchment has been indicated by bivariate and multivariate statistical analysis. Geology, slope and stream density are the most significant static landslide causal factors. Static factors are here defined as factors that do not change their attributes during the considered time span of the study (45 years), e.g. geology, stream network. The occurrence of landslides might be significantly increased by the combined effects of global climate and land use change. Thus, our hypothesis is that more recent changes in land use and climate affected the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides. The increase of the landslide area of 92% within 45 years in the study site confirmed our hypothesis. In order to identify the cause for the trend in landslide occurrence time-series of landslide causal factors were analysed. The analysis revealed increasing trends in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events and stocking of pasture animals. These developments presumably enhanced landslide hazard. Moreover, changes in land-cover and land use were shown to have affected landslide occurrence. For instance, abandoned areas and areas with recently emerging shrub vegetation show very low landslide densities. Detailed spatial analysis of the land use with GIS and interviews with farmers confirmed the strong influence of the land use management practises on slope stability. The definite identification and quantification of the impact of these non-stationary landslide causal factors (dynamic factors) on the landslide trend was not possible due to the simultaneous change of several factors. The consideration of dynamic factors in statistical landslide susceptibility assessments is still unsolved. The latter may lead to erroneous model predictions, especially in times of dramatic environmental change. Thus, we evaluated the effect of dynamic landslide causal factors on the validity of landslide susceptibility maps for spatial and temporal predictions. For this purpose, a logistic regression model based on data of the year 2000 was set up. The resulting landslide susceptibility map was valid for spatial predictions. However, the model failed to predict the landslides that occurred in a subsequent event. In order to handle this weakness of statistic landslide modelling a multitemporal approach was developed. It is based on establishing logistic regression models for two points in time (here 1959 and 2000). Both models could correctly classify >70% of the independent spatial validation dataset. By subtracting the 1959 susceptibility map from the 2000 susceptibility map a deviation susceptibility map was obtained. Our interpretation was that these susceptibility deviations indicate the effect of dynamic causal factors on the landslide probability. The deviation map explained 85% of new independent landslides occurring after 2000. Thus, we believe it to be a suitable tool to add a time element to a susceptibility map pointing to areas with changing susceptibility due to recently changing environmental conditions or human interactions. In contrast to landslides that are a direct threat to buildings and infrastructure, sheet erosion attracts less attention because it is often an unseen process. Nonetheless, sheet erosion may account for a major proportion of soil loss. Soil loss by sheet erosion is related to high spatial variability, however, in contrast to arable fields for alpine grasslands erosion damages are long lasting and visible over longer time periods. A crucial erosion triggering parameter that can be derived from satellite imagery is fractional vegetation cover (FVC). Measurements of the radiogenic isotope Cs-137, which is a common tracer for soil erosion, confirm the importance of FVC for soil erosion yield in alpine areas. Linear spectral unmixing (LSU), mixture tuned matched filtering (MTMF) and the spectral index NDVI are applied for estimating fractional abundance of vegetation and bare soil. To account for the small scale heterogeneity of the alpine landscape very high resolved multispectral QuickBird imagery is used. The performance of LSU and MTMF for estimating percent vegetation cover is good (r²=0.85, r²=0.71 respectively). A poorer performance is achieved for bare soil (r²=0.28, r²=0.39 respectively) because compared to vegetation, bare soil has a less characteristic spectral signature in the wavelength domain detected by the QuickBird sensor. Apart from monitoring erosion controlling factors, quantification of soil erosion by applying soil erosion risk models is done. The performance of the two established models Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) for their suitability to model erosion for mountain environments is tested. Cs-137 is used to verify the resulting erosion rates from USLE and PESERA. PESERA yields no correlation to measured Cs-137 long term erosion rates and shows lower sensitivity to FVC. Thus, USLE is used to model the entire study site. The LSU-derived FVC map is used to adapt the C factor of the USLE. Compared to the low erosion rates computed with the former available low resolution dataset (1:25000) the satellite supported USLE map shows “hotspots” of soil erosion of up to 16 t ha-1 a-1. In general, Cs-137 in combination with the USLE is a very suitable method to assess soil erosion for larger areas, as both give estimates on long-term soil erosion. Especially for inaccessible alpine areas, GIS and remote sensing proved to be powerful tools that can be used for repetitive measurements of erosion features and causal factors. In times of global change it is of crucial importance to account for temporal developments. However, the evaluation of the applied soil erosion risk models revealed that the implementation of temporal aspects, such as varying climate, land use and vegetation cover is still insufficient. Thus, the proposed validation strategies (spatial, temporal and via Cs-137) are essential. Further case studies in alpine regions are needed to test the methods elaborated for the Urseren Valley. However, the presented approaches are promising with respect to improve the monitoring and identification of soil erosion risk areas in alpine regions

GIS and statistical analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Daunia area, Italy

This study focuses on landslide susceptibility mapping in the Daunia area (Apulian Apennines, Italy) and achieves this by using a multivariate statistical method and data processing in a Geographical Information System (GIS). The Logistic Regression (hereafter LR) method was chosen to produce a susceptibility map over an area of 130 000 ha where small settlements are historically threatened by landslide phenomena. By means of LR analysis, the tendency to landslide occurrences was, therefore, assessed by relating a landslide inventory (dependent variable) to a series of causal factors (independent variables) which were managed in the GIS, while the statistical analyses were performed by means of the SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) software. The LR analysis produced a reliable susceptibility map of the investigated area and the probability level of landslide occurrence was ranked in four classes. The overall performance achieved by the LR analysis was assessed by local comparison between the expected susceptibility and an independent dataset extrapolated from the landslide inventory. Of the samples classified as susceptible to landslide occurrences, 85% correspond to areas where landslide phenomena have actually occurred. In addition, the consideration of the regression coefficients provided by the analysis demonstrated that a major role is played by the "land cover" and "lithology" causal factors in determining the occurrence and distribution of landslide phenomena in the Apulian Apennines