217 research outputs found

    Theoretical model for cascading effects analyses

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    Abstract In case of exceptional events of natural or anthropogenic type, the elements at risk (people, buildings, infrastructures, economy, etc.) are often hit by sequences of 'cascading events', function of time and space, caused by the triggering event (earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, fire, electric failure, etc.). Generally, sequences of events can involve the same element at risk, and the combined effects of cascading phenomena can strongly amplify the impact caused by single events in terms of extension of the affected area and damage level. The final impact on the territory can be significant and require to be carefully assessed in terms of emergency planning and management. This paper discusses from a theoretical point of view the modelling needs and the main issues to be taken into account in the development of simulation tools aiming to include cascading effects analyses to effectively support decision-makers in their preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies in the framework of emergency planning at local, national and international level. The model aims at developing cascading effects scenarios at different level of detail, depending on the availability of inventory/exposure data for the different categories of elements at risk and hazard/impact models for the various hazard sources. It has been developed within EU-FP7 SNOWBALL project (Lower the impact of aggravating factors in crisis situations thanks to adaptive foresight and decision-support tools, 2015–2017)

    A Numerical Modelling Study on the Potential Role of Tsunamis in the Biblical Exodus

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    The reliability of the narrative of the Biblical Exodus has been subject of heated debate for decades. Recent archaeological studies seem to provide new insight of the exodus path, and although with a still controversial chronology, the effects of the Minoan Santorini eruption have been proposed as a likely explanation of the biblical plagues. Particularly, it has been suggested that flooding by the associated tsunamis could explain the first plague and the sea parting. Recent modelling studies have shown that Santorini’s tsunami effects were negligible in the eastern Nile Delta, but the released tectonic stress could have triggered local tsunamigenic sources in sequence. This paper is aimed to a quantitative assessment of the potential role of tsunamis in the biblical parting of the sea. Several “best case” scenarios are tested through the application of a numerical model for tsunami propagation that has been previously validated. The former paleogeographic conditions of the eastern Nile Delta have been implemented based upon recent geological studies; and several feasible local sources for tsunamis are proposed. Tsunamis triggered by submarine landslides of 10–30 km3 could have severely impacted the northern Sinai and southern Levantine coasts but with weak effects in the eastern Nile Delta coastline. The lack of noticeable flooding in this area under the most favorable conditions for tsunamis, along with the time sequence of water elevations, make difficult to accept them as a plausible and literally explanation of the first plague and of the drowning of the Egyptian army in the surroundings of the former Shi-Hor Lagoon

    The International Forum on Satellite EO and Geohazards

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    Review of works combining GNSS and insar in Europe

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    The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) can be combined to achieve different goals, owing to their main principles. Both enable the collection of information about ground deformation due to the differences of two consequent acquisitions. Their variable applications, even if strictly related to ground deformation and water vapor determination, have encouraged the scientific community to combine GNSS and InSAR data and their derivable products. In this work, more than 190 scientific contributions were collected spanning the whole European continent. The spatial and temporal distribution of such studies, as well as the distinction in different fields of application, were analyzed. Research in Italy, as the most represented nation, with 47 scientific contributions, has been dedicated to the spatial and temporal distribution of its studied phenomena. The state-of-the-art of the various applications of these two combined techniques can improve the knowledge of the scientific community and help in the further development of new approaches or additional applications in different fields. The demonstrated usefulness and versability of the combination of GNSS and InSAR remote sensing techniques for different purposes, as well as the availability of free data, EUREF and GMS (Ground Motion Service), and the possibility of overcoming some limitations of these techniques through their combination suggest an increasingly widespread approach

    The Hidden Giant: How a rift pulse triggered a cascade of sector collapses and voluminous secondary mass‐transport events in the early evolution of Santorini

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    Volcanic island sector collapses have the potential to trigger devastating tsunamis and volcanic eruptions that threaten coastal communities and infrastructure. Considered one of the most hazardous volcano-tectonic regions in the world, the Christiana-Santorini-Kolumbo Volcanic Field (CSKVF) lies in the South Aegean Sea in an active rift zone. Previous studies identified an enigmatic voluminous mass-transport deposit west and east of Santorini emplaced during the early evolution of the edifice. However, the distribution and volume as well as the nature and emplacement dynamics of this deposit remained unknown up to now. In this study, we use an extensive dataset of high-resolution seismic profiles to unravel the distribution and internal architecture of this deposit. We show that it is located in all basins surrounding Santorini and has a bulk volume of up to 125 km3, thus representing the largest known volcanic island mass-transport deposit in the entire Mediterranean Sea. We propose that the deposit is the result of a complex geohazard cascade that was initiated by an intensive rift pulse. This rifting event triggered a series of smaller precursory mass-transport events before large-scale sector collapses occurred on the northeastern flank of the extinct Christiana Volcano and on the southeastern flank of the nascent Santorini. This was followed by the emplacement of large-scale secondary sediment failures on the slopes of Santorini, which transitioned into debris and turbidity flows that traveled far into the neighboring rift basins. Following this cascade, a distinct change in the volcanic behavior of the CSKVF occurred, suggesting a close relationship between crustal extension, mass transport, and volcanism. Cascading geohazards seem to be more common in the evolution of marine volcanic systems than previously appreciated. Wider awareness and a better understanding of cascading effects are crucial for more holistic hazard assessments
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