KEMNAD: A Knowledge Engineering Methodology for Negotiating Agent Development

Automated negotiation is widely applied in various domains. However, the development of such systems is a complex knowledge and software engineering task. So, a methodology there will be helpful. Unfortunately, none of existing methodologies can offer sufficient, detailed support for such system development. To remove this limitation, this paper develops a new methodology made up of: (1) a generic framework (architectural pattern) for the main task, and (2) a library of modular and reusable design pattern (templates) of subtasks. Thus, it is much easier to build a negotiating agent by assembling these standardised components rather than reinventing the wheel each time. Moreover, since these patterns are identified from a wide variety of existing negotiating agents(especially high impact ones), they can also improve the quality of the final systems developed. In addition, our methodology reveals what types of domain knowledge need to be input into the negotiating agents. This in turn provides a basis for developing techniques to acquire the domain knowledge from human users. This is important because negotiation agents act faithfully on the behalf of their human users and thus the relevant domain knowledge must be acquired from the human users. Finally, our methodology is validated with one high impact system

A Survey on IT-Techniques for a Dynamic Emergency Management in Large Infrastructures

This deliverable is a survey on the IT techniques that are relevant to the three use cases of the project EMILI. It describes the state-of-the-art in four complementary IT areas: Data cleansing, supervisory control and data acquisition, wireless sensor networks and complex event processing. Even though the deliverable’s authors have tried to avoid a too technical language and have tried to explain every concept referred to, the deliverable might seem rather technical to readers so far little familiar with the techniques it describes

Pilot interaction with automated airborne decision making systems

Two project areas were pursued: the intelligent cockpit and human problem solving. The first area involves an investigation of the use of advanced software engineering methods to aid aircraft crews in procedure selection and execution. The second area is focused on human problem solving in dynamic environments, particulary in terms of identification of rule-based models land alternative approaches to training and aiding. Progress in each area is discussed

Dynamic Rule Covering Classification in Data Mining with Cyber Security Phishing Application

Data mining is the process of discovering useful patterns from datasets using intelligent techniques to help users make certain decisions. A typical data mining task is classification, which involves predicting a target variable known as the class in previously unseen data based on models learnt from an input dataset. Covering is a well-known classification approach that derives models with If-Then rules. Covering methods, such as PRISM, have a competitive predictive performance to other classical classification techniques such as greedy, decision tree and associative classification. Therefore, Covering models are appropriate decision-making tools and users favour them carrying out decisions. Despite the use of Covering approach in data processing for different classification applications, it is also acknowledged that this approach suffers from the noticeable drawback of inducing massive numbers of rules making the resulting model large and unmanageable by users. This issue is attributed to the way Covering techniques induce the rules as they keep adding items to the rule’s body, despite the limited data coverage (number of training instances that the rule classifies), until the rule becomes with zero error. This excessive learning overfits the training dataset and also limits the applicability of Covering models in decision making, because managers normally prefer a summarised set of knowledge that they are able to control and comprehend rather a high maintenance models. In practice, there should be a trade-off between the number of rules offered by a classification model and its predictive performance. Another issue associated with the Covering models is the overlapping of training data among the rules, which happens when a rule’s classified data are discarded during the rule discovery phase. Unfortunately, the impact of a rule’s removed data on other potential rules is not considered by this approach. However, When removing training data linked with a rule, both frequency and rank of other rules’ items which have appeared in the removed data are updated. The impacted rules should maintain their true rank and frequency in a dynamic manner during the rule discovery phase rather just keeping the initial computed frequency from the original input dataset. In response to the aforementioned issues, a new dynamic learning technique based on Covering and rule induction, that we call Enhanced Dynamic Rule Induction (eDRI), is developed. eDRI has been implemented in Java and it has been embedded in WEKA machine learning tool. The developed algorithm incrementally discovers the rules using primarily frequency and rule strength thresholds. These thresholds in practice limit the search space for both items as well as potential rules by discarding any with insufficient data representation as early as possible resulting in an efficient training phase. More importantly, eDRI substantially cuts down the number of training examples scans by continuously updating potential rules’ frequency and strength parameters in a dynamic manner whenever a rule gets inserted into the classifier. In particular, and for each derived rule, eDRI adjusts on the fly the remaining potential rules’ items frequencies as well as ranks specifically for those that appeared within the deleted training instances of the derived rule. This gives a more realistic model with minimal rules redundancy, and makes the process of rule induction efficient and dynamic and not static. Moreover, the proposed technique minimises the classifier’s number of rules at preliminary stages by stopping learning when any rule does not meet the rule’s strength threshold therefore minimising overfitting and ensuring a manageable classifier. Lastly, eDRI prediction procedure not only priorities using the best ranked rule for class forecasting of test data but also restricts the use of the default class rule thus reduces the number of misclassifications. The aforementioned improvements guarantee classification models with smaller size that do not overfit the training dataset, while maintaining their predictive performance. The eDRI derived models particularly benefit greatly users taking key business decisions since they can provide a rich knowledge base to support their decision making. This is because these models’ predictive accuracies are high, easy to understand, and controllable as well as robust, i.e. flexible to be amended without drastic change. eDRI applicability has been evaluated on the hard problem of phishing detection. Phishing normally involves creating a fake well-designed website that has identical similarity to an existing business trustful website aiming to trick users and illegally obtain their credentials such as login information in order to access their financial assets. The experimental results against large phishing datasets revealed that eDRI is highly useful as an anti-phishing tool since it derived manageable size models when compared with other traditional techniques without hindering the classification performance. Further evaluation results using other several classification datasets from different domains obtained from University of California Data Repository have corroborated eDRI’s competitive performance with respect to accuracy, number of knowledge representation, training time and items space reduction. This makes the proposed technique not only efficient in inducing rules but also effective

Continuous Quantitative Risk Management in Smart Grids Using Attack Defense Trees

Although the risk assessment discipline has been studied from long ago as a means to support security investment decision-making, no holistic approach exists to continuously and quantitatively analyze cyber risks in scenarios where attacks and defenses may target different parts of Internet of Things (IoT)-based smart grid systems. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive methodology that enables informed decisions on security protection for smart grid systems by the continuous assessment of cyber risks. The solution is based on the use of attack defense trees modelled on the system and computation of the proposed risk attributes that enables an assessment of the system risks by propagating the risk attributes in the tree nodes. The method allows system risk sensitivity analyses to be performed with respect to different attack and defense scenarios, and optimizes security strategies with respect to risk minimization. The methodology proposes the use of standard security and privacy defense taxonomies from internationally recognized security control families, such as the NIST SP 800-53, which facilitates security certifications. Finally, the paper describes the validation of the methodology carried out in a real smart building energy efficiency application that combines multiple components deployed in cloud and IoT resources. The scenario demonstrates the feasibility of the method to not only perform initial quantitative estimations of system risks but also to continuously keep the risk assessment up to date according to the system conditions during operation.This research leading to these results was funded by the EUROPEAN COMMISSION, grant number 787011 (SPEAR Horizon 2020 project) and 780351 (ENACT Horizon 2020 project)

Evolving Ensemble Fuzzy Classifier

The concept of ensemble learning offers a promising avenue in learning from data streams under complex environments because it addresses the bias and variance dilemma better than its single model counterpart and features a reconfigurable structure, which is well suited to the given context. While various extensions of ensemble learning for mining non-stationary data streams can be found in the literature, most of them are crafted under a static base classifier and revisits preceding samples in the sliding window for a retraining step. This feature causes computationally prohibitive complexity and is not flexible enough to cope with rapidly changing environments. Their complexities are often demanding because it involves a large collection of offline classifiers due to the absence of structural complexities reduction mechanisms and lack of an online feature selection mechanism. A novel evolving ensemble classifier, namely Parsimonious Ensemble pENsemble, is proposed in this paper. pENsemble differs from existing architectures in the fact that it is built upon an evolving classifier from data streams, termed Parsimonious Classifier pClass. pENsemble is equipped by an ensemble pruning mechanism, which estimates a localized generalization error of a base classifier. A dynamic online feature selection scenario is integrated into the pENsemble. This method allows for dynamic selection and deselection of input features on the fly. pENsemble adopts a dynamic ensemble structure to output a final classification decision where it features a novel drift detection scenario to grow the ensemble structure. The efficacy of the pENsemble has been numerically demonstrated through rigorous numerical studies with dynamic and evolving data streams where it delivers the most encouraging performance in attaining a tradeoff between accuracy and complexity.Comment: this paper has been published by IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy System

Continuous Quantitative Risk Management in Smart Grids Using Attack Defense Trees

Although the risk assessment discipline has been studied from long ago as a means to support security investment decision-making, no holistic approach exists to continuously and quantitatively analyze cyber risks in scenarios where attacks and defenses may target different parts of Internet of Things (IoT)-based smart grid systems. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive methodology that enables informed decisions on security protection for smart grid systems by the continuous assessment of cyber risks. The solution is based on the use of attack defense trees modelled on the system and computation of the proposed risk attributes that enables an assessment of the system risks by propagating the risk attributes in the tree nodes. The method allows system risk sensitivity analyses to be performed with respect to different attack and defense scenarios, and optimizes security strategies with respect to risk minimization. The methodology proposes the use of standard security and privacy defense taxonomies from internationally recognized security control families, such as the NIST SP 800-53, which facilitates security certifications. Finally, the paper describes the validation of the methodology carried out in a real smart building energy efficiency application that combines multiple components deployed in cloud and IoT resources. The scenario demonstrates the feasibility of the method to not only perform initial quantitative estimations of system risks but also to continuously keep the risk assessment up to date according to the system conditions during operation.This research leading to these results was funded by the EUROPEAN COMMISSION, grant number 787011 (SPEAR Horizon 2020 project) and 780351 (ENACT Horizon 2020 project)

On green routing and scheduling problem

The vehicle routing and scheduling problem has been studied with much interest within the last four decades. In this paper, some of the existing literature dealing with routing and scheduling problems with environmental issues is reviewed, and a description is provided of the problems that have been investigated and how they are treated using combinatorial optimization tools