Knowledge graph-based entity importance learning for multi-stream regression on Australian fuel price forecasting

© 2019 IEEE. A knowledge graph (KG) represents a collection of interlinked descriptions of entities. It has become a key focus for organising and utilising this type of data for applications. Many graph embedding techniques have been proposed to simplify the manipulation while preserving the inherent structure of the KG. However, scant attention has been given to the investigation of the importance of the entities (the nodes of KGs). In this paper, we propose a novel entities importance learning framework that investigates how to weight the entities and use them as a prior knowledge for solving multi-stream regression problems. The framework consists of KG feature extraction, multi-stream correlation analysis, and entity importance learning. To evaluate the proposed method, we implemented the framework based on Wikidata and applied it to Australian retail fuel price forecasting. The experiment results indicate that the proposed method reduces prediction error, which supports the weighted knowledge graph information as a means for improving machine learning model accuracy

Big Data in Bioeconomy

This edited open access book presents the comprehensive outcome of The European DataBio Project, which examined new data-driven methods to shape a bioeconomy. These methods are used to develop new and sustainable ways to use forest, farm and fishery resources. As a European initiative, the goal is to use these new findings to support decision-makers and producers – meaning farmers, land and forest owners and fishermen. With their 27 pilot projects from 17 countries, the authors examine important sectors and highlight examples where modern data-driven methods were used to increase sustainability. How can farmers, foresters or fishermen use these insights in their daily lives? The authors answer this and other questions for our readers. The first four parts of this book give an overview of the big data technologies relevant for optimal raw material gathering. The next three parts put these technologies into perspective, by showing useable applications from farming, forestry and fishery. The final part of this book gives a summary and a view on the future. With its broad outlook and variety of topics, this book is an enrichment for students and scientists in bioeconomy, biodiversity and renewable resources

The Nexus Between Security Sector Governance/Reform and Sustainable Development Goal-16

This Security Sector Reform (SSR) Paper offers a universal and analytical perspective on the linkages between Security Sector Governance (SSG)/SSR (SSG/R) and Sustainable Development Goal-16 (SDG-16), focusing on conflict and post-conflict settings as well as transitional and consolidated democracies. Against the background of development and security literatures traditionally maintaining separate and compartmentalized presence in both academic and policymaking circles, it maintains that the contemporary security- and development-related challenges are inextricably linked, requiring effective measures with an accurate understanding of the nature of these challenges. In that sense, SDG-16 is surely a good step in the right direction. After comparing and contrasting SSG/R and SDG-16, this SSR Paper argues that human security lies at the heart of the nexus between the 2030 Agenda of the United Nations (UN) and SSG/R. To do so, it first provides a brief overview of the scholarly and policymaking literature on the development-security nexus to set the background for the adoption of The Agenda 2030. Next, it reviews the literature on SSG/R and SDGs, and how each concept evolved over time. It then identifies the puzzle this study seeks to address by comparing and contrasting SSG/R with SDG-16. After making a case that human security lies at the heart of the nexus between the UN’s 2030 Agenda and SSG/R, this book analyses the strengths and weaknesses of human security as a bridge between SSG/R and SDG-16 and makes policy recommendations on how SSG/R, bolstered by human security, may help achieve better results on the SDG-16 targets. It specifically emphasizes the importance of transparency, oversight, and accountability on the one hand, and participative approach and local ownership on the other. It concludes by arguing that a simultaneous emphasis on security and development is sorely needed for addressing the issues under the purview of SDG-16

Predicting water quality and ecological responses

Abstract Changes to climate are predicted to have effects on freshwater streams. Stream flows are likely to change, with implications for freshwater ecosystems and water quality. Other stressors such as population growth, community preferences and management policies can be expected to interact in various ways with climate change and stream flows, and outcomes for freshwater ecosystems and water quality are uncertain. Managers of freshwater ecosystems and water supplies could benefit from being able to predict the scales of likely changes. This project has developed and applied a linked modelling framework to assess climate change impacts on water quality regimes and ecological responses. The framework is designed to inform water planning and climate adaptation activities. It integrates quantitative tools, and predicts relationships between future climate, human activities, water quality and ecology, thereby filling a gap left by the considerable research effort so far invested in predicting stream flows. The modelling framework allows managers to explore potential changes in the water quality and ecology of freshwater systems in response to plausible scenarios for climate change and management adaptations. Although set up for the Upper Murrumbidgee River catchment in southern NSW and ACT, the framework was planned to be transferable to other regions where suitable data are available. The approach and learning from the project appear to have the potential to be broadly applicable. We selected six climate scenarios representing minor, moderate and major changes in flow characteristics for 1oC and 2oC temperature increases. These were combined with four plausible alternative management adaptations that might be used to modify water supply, urban water demand and stream flow regimes in the Upper Murrumbidgee catchment. The Bayesian Network (BN) model structure we used was developed using both a ‘top down’ and ‘bottom up’ approach. From analyses combined with expert advice, we identified the causal structure linking climate variables to stream flow, water quality attributes, land management and ecological responses (top down). The ‘bottom up’ approach focused on key ecological outcomes and key drivers, and helped produce efficient models. The result was six models for macroinvertebrates, and one for fish. In the macroinvertebrate BN models, nodes were discretised using statistical/empirical derived thresholds using new techniques. The framework made it possible to explore how ecological communities respond to changes in climate and management activities. Particularly, we focused on the effects of water quality and quantity on ecological responses. The models showed a strong regional response reflecting differences across 18 regions in the catchment. In two regions the management alternatives were predicted to have stronger effects than climate change. In three other regions the predicted response to climate change was stronger. Analyses of water quality suggested minor changes in the probability of water quality exceeding thresholds designed to protect aquatic ecosystems. The ‘bottom up’ approach limited the framework’s transferability by being specific to the Upper Murrumbidgee catchment data. Indeed, to meet stakeholder questions models need to be specifically tailored. Therefore the report proposes a general model-building framework for transferring the approach, rather than the models, to other regions.  Please cite this report as: Dyer, F, El Sawah, S, Lucena-Moya, P, Harrison, E, Croke, B, Tschierschke, A, Griffiths, R, Brawata, R, Kath, J, Reynoldson, T, Jakeman, T 2013 Predicting water quality and ecological responses, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 110 Changes to climate are predicted to have effects on freshwater streams. Stream flows are likely to change, with implications for freshwater ecosystems and water quality. Other stressors such as population growth, community preferences and management policies can be expected to interact in various ways with climate change and stream flows, and outcomes for freshwater ecosystems and water quality are uncertain. Managers of freshwater ecosystems and water supplies could benefit from being able to predict the scales of likely changes. This project has developed and applied a linked modelling framework to assess climate change impacts on water quality regimes and ecological responses. The framework is designed to inform water planning and climate adaptation activities. It integrates quantitative tools, and predicts relationships between future climate, human activities, water quality and ecology, thereby filling a gap left by the considerable research effort so far invested in predicting stream flows. The modelling framework allows managers to explore potential changes in the water quality and ecology of freshwater systems in response to plausible scenarios for climate change and management adaptations. Although set up for the Upper Murrumbidgee River catchment in southern NSW and ACT, the framework was planned to be transferable to other regions where suitable data are available. The approach and learning from the project appear to have the potential to be broadly applicable. We selected six climate scenarios representing minor, moderate and major changes in flow characteristics for 1oC and 2oC temperature increases. These were combined with four plausible alternative management adaptations that might be used to modify water supply, urban water demand and stream flow regimes in the Upper Murrumbidgee catchment. The Bayesian Network (BN) model structure we used was developed using both a ‘top down’ and ‘bottom up’ approach. From analyses combined with expert advice, we identified the causal structure linking climate variables to stream flow, water quality attributes, land management and ecological responses (top down). The ‘bottom up’ approach focused on key ecological outcomes and key drivers, and helped produce efficient models. The result was six models for macroinvertebrates, and one for fish. In the macroinvertebrate BN models, nodes were discretised using statistical/empirical derived thresholds using new techniques. The framework made it possible to explore how ecological communities respond to changes in climate and management activities. Particularly, we focused on the effects of water quality and quantity on ecological responses. The models showed a strong regional response reflecting differences across 18 regions in the catchment. In two regions the management alternatives were predicted to have stronger effects than climate change. In three other regions the predicted response to climate change was stronger. Analyses of water quality suggested minor changes in the probability of water quality exceeding thresholds designed to protect aquatic ecosystems. The ‘bottom up’ approach limited the framework’s transferability by being specific to the Upper Murrumbidgee catchment data. Indeed, to meet stakeholder questions models need to be specifically tailored. Therefore the report proposes a general model-building framework for transferring the approach, rather than the models, to other regions.&nbsp

Operational Research: Methods and Applications

Throughout its history, Operational Research has evolved to include a variety of methods, models and algorithms that have been applied to a diverse and wide range of contexts. This encyclopedic article consists of two main sections: methods and applications. The first aims to summarise the up-to-date knowledge and provide an overview of the state-of-the-art methods and key developments in the various subdomains of the field. The second offers a wide-ranging list of areas where Operational Research has been applied. The article is meant to be read in a nonlinear fashion. It should be used as a point of reference or first-port-of-call for a diverse pool of readers: academics, researchers, students, and practitioners. The entries within the methods and applications sections are presented in alphabetical order. The authors dedicate this paper to the 2023 Turkey/Syria earthquake victims. We sincerely hope that advances in OR will play a role towards minimising the pain and suffering caused by this and future catastrophes

Advances in knowledge discovery and data mining Part II

19th Pacific-Asia Conference, PAKDD 2015, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, May 19-22, 2015, Proceedings, Part II</p