Revision of conjectures about the opponent's utilities in signaling games.

In this paper we apply the concept of preference conjecture equilibrium introduced in Perea (2003) to signaling games and show its relation to sequential equilibrium. Furthermore, we introduce the concept of minimum revision equilibrium and show how this can be interpreted as a refinement of sequential equilibrium. We also present a method to compute preference conjecture equilibria.econometrics;

The Bayesian boom: good thing or bad?

A series of high-profile critiques of Bayesian models of cognition have recently sparked controversy. These critiques question the contribution of rational, normative considerations in the study of cognition. The present article takes central claims from these critiques and evaluates them in light of specific models. Closer consideration of actual examples of Bayesian treatments of different cognitive phenomena allows one to defuse these critiques showing that they cannot be sustained across the diversity of applications of the Bayesian framework for cognitive modeling. More generally, there is nothing in the Bayesian framework that would inherently give rise to the deficits that these critiques perceive, suggesting they have been framed at the wrong level of generality. At the same time, the examples are used to demonstrate the different ways in which consideration of rationality uniquely benefits both theory and practice in the study of cognition

Three analyses of sour grapes

The phenomenon of adaptive preferences – sometimes also known under the name of sour grapes – has long caused a stir in Social Theory. In this paper, the precise problem posed by adaptive preferences, as seen from the point of view of a theoretician who intends to model or understand the phenomenon, will be clarified, and three models of the phenomenon will be presented and compared. The general intention of the article is to sound out some of the wider consequences of the phenomenon for the project of modelling and understanding the relationship between decisions taken in different situations. Difficulties which arise when several decisions and several situations are involved shall be discussed, and an approach to these difficulties shall be suggested.Adaptive preferences; preference change; belief change; decision theory; belief and utility elicitation; representation theorems.

Troubles with Bayesianism: An introduction to the psychological immune system

A Bayesian mind is, at its core, a rational mind. Bayesianism is thus well-suited to predict and explain mental processes that best exemplify our ability to be rational. However, evidence from belief acquisition and change appears to show that we do not acquire and update information in a Bayesian way. Instead, the principles of belief acquisition and updating seem grounded in maintaining a psychological immune system rather than in approximating a Bayesian processor

Diseño para operabilidad: Una revisión de enfoques y estrategias de solución

In the last decades the chemical engineering scientific research community has largely addressed the design-foroperability problem. Such an interest responds to the fact that the operability quality of a process is determined by design, becoming evident the convenience of considering operability issues in early design stages rather than later when the impact of modifications is less effective and more expensive. The necessity of integrating design and operability is dictated by the increasing complexity of the processes as result of progressively stringent economic, quality, safety and environmental constraints. Although the design-for-operability problem concerns to practically every technical discipline, it has achieved a particular identity within the chemical engineering field due to the economic magnitude of the involved processes. The work on design and analysis for operability in chemical engineering is really vast and a complete review in terms of papers is beyond the scope of this contribution. Instead, two major approaches will be addressed and those papers that in our belief had the most significance to the development of the field will be described in some detail.En las últimas décadas, la comunidad científica de ingeniería química ha abordado intensamente el problema de diseño-para-operabilidad. Tal interés responde al hecho de que la calidad operativa de un proceso esta determinada por diseño, resultando evidente la conveniencia de considerar aspectos operativos en las etapas tempranas del diseño y no luego, cuando el impacto de las modificaciones es menos efectivo y más costoso. La necesidad de integrar diseño y operabilidad esta dictada por la creciente complejidad de los procesos como resultado de las cada vez mayores restricciones económicas, de calidad de seguridad y medioambientales. Aunque el problema de diseño para operabilidad concierne a prácticamente toda disciplina, ha adquirido una identidad particular dentro de la ingeniería química debido a la magnitud económica de los procesos involucrados. El trabajo sobre diseño y análisis para operabilidad es realmente vasto y una revisión completa en términos de artículos supera los alcances de este trabajo. En su lugar, se discutirán los dos enfoques principales y aquellos artículos que en nuestra opinión han tenido mayor impacto para el desarrollo de la disciplina serán descriptos con cierto detalle.Fil: Blanco, Anibal Manuel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Planta Piloto de Ingeniería Química. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Planta Piloto de Ingeniería Química; ArgentinaFil: Bandoni, Jose Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Planta Piloto de Ingeniería Química. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Planta Piloto de Ingeniería Química; Argentin

From Bounded Rationality to Behavioral Economics

The paper provides an brief overview of the “state of the art” in the theory of rational decision making since the 1950’s, and focuses specially on the evolutionary justification of rationality. It is claimed that this justification, and more generally the economic methodology inherited from the Chicago school, becomes untenable once taking into account Kauffman’s Nk model, showing that if evolution it is based on trial-and-error search process, it leads generally to sub- optimal stable solutions: the ‘as if’ justification of perfect rationality proves therefore to be a fallacious metaphor. The normative interpretation of decision-making theory is therefore questioned, and the two challenging views against this approach , Simon’s bounded rationality and Allais’ criticism to expected utility theory are discussed. On this ground it is shown that the cognitive characteristics of choice processes are becoming more and more important for explanation of economic behavior and of deviations from rationality. In particular, according to Kahneman’s Nobel Lecture, it is suggested that the distinction between two types of cognitive processes – the effortful process of deliberate reasoning on the one hand, and the automatic process of unconscious intuition on the other – can provide a different map with which to explain a broad class of deviations from pure ‘olympian’ rationality. This view requires re-establishing and revising connections between psychology and economics: an on-going challenge against the normative approach to economic methodology.Bounded Rationality, Behavioral Economics, Evolution, As If