Leveraging digital and computational demography for policy insights

Situated at the intersection of the computational and demographic sciences, digital and computational demography explores how new digital data streams and computational methods advance the understanding of population dynamics, along with the impacts of digital technologies on population outcomes, e.g. linked to health, fertility and migration. Encompassing the data, methodological and social impacts of digital technologies, we outline key opportunities provided by digital and computational demography for generating policy insights. Within methodological opportunities, individual-level simulation approaches, such as microsimulation and agent-based modelling, infused with different data, provide tools to create empirically informed synthetic populations that can serve as virtual laboratories to test the impact of different social policies (e.g. fertility policies, support for the elderly or bereaved people). Individual-level simulation approaches allow also to assess policy-relevant questions about the impacts of demographic changes linked to ageing, climate change and migration. Within data opportunities, digital trace data provide a system for early warning with detailed spatial and temporal granularity, which are useful to monitor demographic quantities in real time or for understanding societal responses to demographic change. The demographic perspective highlights the importance of understanding population heterogeneity in the use and impacts of different types of digital technologies, which is crucial towards building more inclusive digital spaces

Intergenerational family constellations in contemporary Europe

Demographic research has drawn attention to the multiple ways in which changes in mortality and childbearing have produced major shifts in intergenerational family structures. The aim of this article is to contribute to this body of research by analysing the data from the Generations and Gender Surveys for nine European countries. In the study, data pertaining to the availability of ascending (parents and grandparents) and descending kin (children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren) of the respondent are combined to shed light on the family structures in which indviduals are embedded at various stages of their lives. The findings provide new insights into the ways in which the past and present diversity of demographic regimes comes together into specific patterns of intergenerational family constellations across Europe. This convergence may yield family constellations of very similar “height†in countries with sharply contrasting demographic histories. The results also indicate that certain demographic scenarios may halt or temporarily reverse the trend towards the further vertical extension of family constellations.comparative studies, Europe, intergenerational family constellations, kin networks

Demographic agent-based simulation of gambians immigrants in Spain

Changes in our society have created a challenge for policymakers, who confront a need of tools to evaluate the possible effects of their policies. Agent-based modelling and simulation is a promising methodology which can be used in the study of population dynamics. In this paper we introduce an agent-based simulation approach to project the population of Gambian migrants in Spain during 10 years. Our approach not only enables to simulate the life course of individuals, but also allows deeping on the movements, interactions, and behaviours of the target population. The model is able to capture individual characteristics and to overcome some data-related limitations with assumptions on behavioural rules. With this methodology, we want to show the potential of the tool with the study of a real case scenario

Demographic agent-based simulation of Gambians immigrants in Spain

Changes in our society have created a challenge for policymakers, who confront a need of tools to evaluate the possible effects of their policies. Agent-based modelling and simulation is a promising methodology which can be used in the study of population dynamics. In this paper we introduce an agent-based simulation approach to project the population of Gambian migrants in Spain during 10 years. Our approach not only enables to simulate the life course of individuals, but also allows deeping on the movements, interactions, and behaviours of the target population. The model is able to capture individual characteristics and to overcome some data-related limitations with assumptions on behavioural rules. With this methodology, we want to show the potential of the tool with the study of a real case scenario.Postprint (author's final draft

Dynamic Microsimulation of Health Care Demand, Health Care Finance and the Economic Impact of Health Behavior. Part II: Survey and Review

This report is the second part of an investigation of the potential of dynamic microsimulation for modeling and projection of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behavior. While the first part (Spielauer, 2002) provided a theoretical and methodological background of dynamic microsimulation in this research area and compared the microsimulation approach with the cell-based macro-approach, this paper contains a survey of existing microsimulation projects and draws some conclusions with regard to health care modeling. The purpose of this survey is to capitalize on the expertise acquired by what is now more than 40 years of dynamic microsimulation model development with regard to modeling health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behavior. Based on literature research, 33 dynamic microsimulation projects were identified for which documentation is available. While a short description and classification of these projects is given in the appendix of this report, 9 projects are reviewed in more detail. All of these 9 models include health-related variables, however, the range of health-related issues that can be studied using these models varies widely, as health is not the central focus of the majority of the models. Consequently, this review does not exclusively concentrate on the treatment of health issues in microsimulation models, but the selection of models was also made with the intention to cover most approaches towards dynamic data-based microsimulation with regard to the general structure and modeling options. The review focuses on the modeling of demographic and health behaviors and on the way these models are integrated into the whole model structure, including policy and accounting issues. After giving a brief description of each of the selected models, the modeling approaches are summarized and commented by means of five distinguished criteria. These are the use of alignment techniques, the model's complexity and range of variables used, the theoretical foundation of the model, the type of starting population used, and the extent and detail of financial issues covered. The conclusions are then summarized in a series of "lessons" that can be learned from existing projects

Projections of White and Black Older Adults without Living Kin in the United States, 2015-2060

Close kin provide many important functions as adults age, affecting health, financial well-being, and happiness. Those without kin report higher rates of loneliness and experience elevated risks of chronic illness and nursing facility placement. Historical racial differences and recent shifts in core demographic rates suggest that white and black older adults in the United States may have unequal availability of close kin and that this gap in availability will widen in the coming decades. Whereas prior work explores the changing composition and size of the childless population or those without spouses, here we consider the kinless population of older adults with no living close family members and how this burden is changing for different race and sex groups. Using demographic microsimulation and the United States Census Bureau’s recent national projections of core demographic rates by race, we examine two definitions of kinlessness: those without a partner or living children, and those without a partner, children, siblings, or parents. Our results suggest dramatic growth in the size of the kinless population as well as increasing racial disparities in percentages kinless. These conclusions are driven by declines in marriage and are robust to different assumptions about the future trajectory of divorce rates or growth in nonmarital partnerships. Our findings draw attention to the potential expansion of older adult loneliness, which is increasingly considered a threat to population health, and the unequal burden kinlessness may place on black Americans

The Potential of Dynamic Microsimulation in Family Studies: a Review and some Lessons for FAMSIM+

Die Entwicklung von Simulationsmodellen nimmt in der sozioökonomischen Abteilung einen zentralen Forschungsschwerpunkt ein, dies einerseits in der Form von Hochrechnungsmodellen zur Berechnung von Kosten und Verteilungswirkungen familienpolitischer Maßnahmen (Förderungen) - hierzu wurden insbesondere Modelle und Softwarepakete für die Bundesländer Niederösterreich und Wien entwickelt - und andererseits in der Form des dynamischen Mikrosimulationsmodells FAMSIM. Dynamische Mikrosimulation erlaubt es, die Individuen einer Bevölkerung über ihren ganzen Lebenslauf im Computer zu simulieren, was insbesondere zur Erforschung demographischer Prozesse dient bzw. die Erforschung der Auswirkungen dieser Prozesse auf andere Systeme - wie etwa Pensionssysteme. Statische "cell-based" Modelle zur Berechnung der Kosten von Familienförderungen in der Form frei parametrisierbarer Simulationsmodelle auf Basis von realen Antragsdaten zu Förderungen: Anwendungen in Wien und Niederösterreich. Modellierung, Programmierung und ökonometrische Schätzung des dynamischen FAMSIM Modells für 5 Europäische Länder; Internationale Vergleichsstudien zu typischen "Risikomustern" betreffend dem Beginn und Ende von Partnerschaften, Erwerbstätigkeit, Ausbildungen sowie Schwangerschaften/Geburten. Zusammenführung der statischen und dynamischen Modelle zu einem dynamischen Familien - Mikrosimulationsmodell FAMSIM+ zur Erforschung demographischer Prozesse (wie sich verändernder Familienstrukturen) sowie der Evaluierung der Kosten und Wirkung familienrelevanter Maßnahmen im Quer- und Längsschnitt. Dieser Ansatz erlaubt zum Beispiel die Erforschung der Auswirkungen von Erwerbsunterbrechungen zur Kinderbetreuung auf die gesamte weitere Erwerbskarriere einschließlich Pensionsansprüche. Nationale und internationale Kooperationen für verschiedene Anwendungsgebiete, wie derzeit für Bildungsprognosen (Kooperation mit dem Institut für Bildungsforschung der Wirtschaft) sowie im Bereich Altenpflege (Netzwerkpartner im International Network for the Research on Elderly Care INREC)

Anthropology and business: reflections on the business applications of cultural anthropology.

Today's business have international and intercultural dimensions. The complexity of market, organizational climate and culture and the management of human resources demand interdisciplinary and intercultural approach which are available in anthropological researches and methods. The consumer world has its own developments, diversifications and psycho-cultural fermentation. These changes pose new challenges for the designers and suppliers of products, services, systems and processes. Many changes in the economic and social spheres are beyond the range of conventional number-led, straight-line anaysis and planning. Rapid discontinuous changes defy all straight-line forecasting and conventional plannings. Qualitative and open-ended researches, scenario planning and brainstorming sessions, which skilled anthropologists are able to provide, are necessary to face such challenges.

Approaching simulation to modelers: a user interface for large-scale demographic simulation

Extended version / Versió extesaAgent-based modeling is one of the promising modeling tools that can be used in the study of population dynamics. Two of the main obstacles hindering the use of agent-based simulation in practice are its scalability when the analysis requires large-scale models such as policy studies, and its ease-of-use especially for users with no programming experience. While there has been a significant work on the scalability issue, ease-of-use aspect has not been addressed in the same intensity. This paper presents a graphical user interface designed for a simulation tool which allows modelers with no programming background to specify agent-based demographic models and run them on parallel environments. The interface eases the definition of models to describe individual and group dynamics processes with both qualitative and quantitative data. The main advantage is to allow users to transparently run the models on high performance computing infrastructures.Postprint (author's final draft