Expansions of Iterated Stratonovich Stochastic Integrals of Multiplicities 1 to 4 Based on Generalized Multiple Fourier Series

The article is devoted to the expansions of iterated Stratonovich stochastic integrals of multiplicities 1 to 4 on the basis of the method of generalized multiple Fourier series that are converge in the sense of norm in Hilbert space $L_2([t, T]^k),$ $k=1,2,3,4.$ Mean-square convergence of the expansions for the case of multiple Fourier-Legendre series and for the case of multiple trigonometric Fourier series is proved. The considered expansions contain only one operation of the limit transition in contrast to its existing analogues. This property is very important for the mean-square approximation of iterated stochastic integrals. The results of the article can be applied to numerical integration of Ito stochastic differential equations with multidimensional non-commutative noises.Comment: 50 pages. Sect. 6 is added. Minor changes along the article in the whole. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1712.0899

Application of ensemble transform data assimilation methods for parameter estimation in reservoir modelling

Over the years data assimilation methods have been developed to obtain estimations of uncertain model parameters by taking into account a few observations of a model state. The most reliable methods of MCMC are computationally expensive. Sequential ensemble methods such as ensemble Kalman filers and particle filters provide a favourable alternative. However, Ensemble Kalman Filter has an assumption of Gaussianity. Ensemble Transform Particle Filter does not have this assumption and has proven to be highly beneficial for an initial condition estimation and a small number of parameter estimation in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper we employ Ensemble Transform Particle Filter (ETPF) and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) for parameter estimation in nonlinear problems with 1, 5, and 2500 uncertain parameters and compare them to importance sampling (IS). We prove that the updated parameters obtained by ETPF lie within the range of an initial ensemble, which is not the case for ETKF. We examine the performance of ETPF and ETKF in a twin experiment setup and observe that for a small number of uncertain parameters (1 and 5) ETPF performs comparably to ETKF in terms of the mean estimation. For a large number of uncertain parameters (2500) ETKF is robust with respect to the initial ensemble while ETPF is sensitive due to sampling error. Moreover, for the high-dimensional test problem ETPF gives an increase in the root mean square error after data assimilation is performed. This is resolved by applying distance-based localization, which however deteriorates a posterior estimation of the leading mode by largely increasing the variance. A possible remedy is instead of applying localization to use only leading modes that are well estimated by ETPF, which demands a knowledge at which mode to truncate

Enhanced goal-oriented error assessment and computational strategies in adaptive reduced basis solver for stochastic problems

This work focuses on providing accurate low-cost approximations of stochastic ¿nite elements simulations in the framework of linear elasticity. In a previous work, an adaptive strategy was introduced as an improved Monte-Carlo method for multi-dimensional large stochastic problems. We provide here a complete analysis of the method including a new enhanced goal-oriented error estimator and estimates of CPU (computational processing unit) cost gain. Technical insights of these two topics are presented in details, and numerical examples show the interest of these new developments.Postprint (author's final draft

Response to Comments on PCA Based Hurst Exponent Estimator for fBm Signals Under Disturbances

In this response, we try to give a repair to our previous proof for PCA Based Hurst Exponent Estimator for fBm Signals by using orthogonal projection. Moreover, we answer the question raised recently: If a centered Gaussian process $G_t$ admits two series expansions on different Riesz bases, we may possibly study the asymptotic behavior of one eigenvalue sequence from the knowledge on the asymptotic behaviors of another.Comment: This is a response for a mistake in Li Li, Jianming Hu, Yudong Chen, Yi Zhang, PCA based Hurst exponent estimator for fBm signals under disturbances, IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, vol. 57, no. 7, pp. 2840-2846, 200

An efficient polynomial chaos-based proxy model for history matching and uncertainty quantification of complex geological structures

A novel polynomial chaos proxy-based history matching and uncertainty quantification method is presented that can be employed for complex geological structures in inverse problems. For complex geological structures, when there are many unknown geological parameters with highly nonlinear correlations, typically more than 106 full reservoir simulation runs might be required to accurately probe the posterior probability space given the production history of reservoir. This is not practical for high-resolution geological models. One solution is to use a "proxy model" that replicates the simulation model for selected input parameters. The main advantage of the polynomial chaos proxy compared to other proxy models and response surfaces is that it is generally applicable and converges systematically as the order of the expansion increases. The Cameron and Martin theorem 2.24 states that the convergence rate of the standard polynomial chaos expansions is exponential for Gaussian random variables. To improve the convergence rate for non-Gaussian random variables, the generalized polynomial chaos is implemented that uses an Askey-scheme to choose the optimal basis for polynomial chaos expansions [199]. Additionally, for the non-Gaussian distributions that can be effectively approximated by a mixture of Gaussian distributions, we use the mixture-modeling based clustering approach where under each cluster the polynomial chaos proxy converges exponentially fast and the overall posterior distribution can be estimated more efficiently using different polynomial chaos proxies. The main disadvantage of the polynomial chaos proxy is that for high-dimensional problems, the number of the polynomial chaos terms increases drastically as the order of the polynomial chaos expansions increases. Although different non-intrusive methods have been developed in the literature to address this issue, still a large number of simulation runs is required to compute high-order terms of the polynomial chaos expansions. This work resolves this issue by proposing the reduced-terms polynomial chaos expansion which preserves only the relevant terms in the polynomial chaos representation. We demonstrated that the sparsity pattern in the polynomial chaos expansion, when used with the Karhunen-Loéve decomposition method or kernel PCA, can be systematically captured. A probabilistic framework based on the polynomial chaos proxy is also suggested in the context of the Bayesian model selection to study the plausibility of different geological interpretations of the sedimentary environments. The proposed surrogate-accelerated Bayesian inverse analysis can be coherently used in practical reservoir optimization workflows and uncertainty assessments

Karhunen-Loeve representation of stochastic ocean waves

A new stochastic representation of a seastate is developed based on the Karhunen–Loeve spectral decomposition of stochastic signals and the use of Slepian prolate spheroidal wave functions with a tunable bandwidth parameter. The new representation allows the description of stochastic ocean waves in terms of a few independent sources of uncertainty when the traditional representation of a seastate in terms of Fourier series requires an order of magnitude more independent components. The new representation leads to parsimonious stochastic models of the ambient wave kinematics and of the nonlinear loads and responses of ships and offshore platforms. The use of the new representation is discussed for the derivation of critical wave episodes, the derivation of up-crossing rates of nonlinear loads and responses and the joint stochastic representation of correlated wave and wind profiles for use in the design of fixed or floating offshore wind turbines. The forecasting is also discussed of wave elevation records and vessel responses for use in energy yield enhancement of compliant floating wind turbines.ALSTOM (Firm)Ente nazionale per l'energia elettricab_TE

Characteristic eddy decomposition of turbulence in a channel

The proper orthogonal decomposition technique (Lumley's decomposition) is applied to the turbulent flow in a channel to extract coherent structures by decomposing the velocity field into characteristic eddies with random coefficients. In the homogeneous spatial directions, a generaliztion of the shot-noise expansion is used to determine the characteristic eddies. In this expansion, the Fourier coefficients of the characteristic eddy cannot be obtained from the second-order statistics. Three different techniques are used to determine the phases of these coefficients. They are based on: (1) the bispectrum, (2) a spatial compactness requirement, and (3) a functional continuity argument. Results from these three techniques are found to be similar in most respects. The implications of these techniques and the shot-noise expansion are discussed. The dominant eddy is found to contribute as much as 76 percent to the turbulent kinetic energy. In both 2D and 3D, the characteristic eddies consist of an ejection region straddled by streamwise vortices that leave the wall in the very short streamwise distance of about 100 wall units

A spectral-based numerical method for Kolmogorov equations in Hilbert spaces

We propose a numerical solution for the solution of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equations associated with stochastic partial differential equations in Hilbert spaces. The method is based on the spectral decomposition of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroup associated to the Kolmogorov equation. This allows us to write the solution of the Kolmogorov equation as a deterministic version of the Wiener-Chaos Expansion. By using this expansion we reformulate the Kolmogorov equation as a infinite system of ordinary differential equations, and by truncation it we set a linear finite system of differential equations. The solution of such system allow us to build an approximation to the solution of the Kolmogorov equations. We test the numerical method with the Kolmogorov equations associated with a stochastic diffusion equation, a Fisher-KPP stochastic equation and a stochastic Burgers Eq. in dimension 1.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figure