A class of fast exact Bayesian filters in dynamical models with jumps

In this paper, we focus on the statistical filtering problem in dynamical models with jumps. When a particular application relies on physical properties which are modeled by linear and Gaussian probability density functions with jumps, an usualmethod consists in approximating the optimal Bayesian estimate (in the sense of the Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE)) in a linear and Gaussian Jump Markov State Space System (JMSS). Practical solutions include algorithms based on numerical approximations or based on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. In this paper, we propose a class of alternative methods which consists in building statistical models which share the same physical properties of interest but in which the computation of the optimal MMSE estimate can be done at a computational cost which is linear in the number of observations.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figure

Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering for spatio-temporal processes

We design and analyse the performance of a multilevel ensemble Kalman filter method (MLEnKF) for filtering settings where the underlying state-space model is an infinite-dimensional spatio-temporal process. We consider underlying models that needs to be simulated by numerical methods, with discretization in both space and time. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy, achieving variance reduction through pairwise coupling of ensemble particles on neighboring resolutions, is used in the sample-moment step of MLEnKF to produce an efficient hierarchical filtering method for spatio-temporal models. Under sufficient regularity, MLEnKF is proven to be more efficient for weak approximations than EnKF, asymptotically in the large-ensemble and fine-numerical-resolution limit. Numerical examples support our theoretical findings.Comment: Version 1: 39 pages, 4 figures.arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1608.08558 . Version 2 (this version): 52 pages, 6 figures. Revision primarily of the introduction and the numerical examples sectio

Kernel Bayes' rule

A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Probabilities are uniquely characterized by the mean of the canonical map to the RKHS. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed in terms of RKHS functions of an empirical sample: no explicit parametric model is needed for these quantities. The posterior is likewise an RKHS mean of a weighted sample. The estimator for the expectation of a function of the posterior is derived, and rates of consistency are shown. Some representative applications of the kernel Bayes' rule are presented, including Baysian computation without likelihood and filtering with a nonparametric state-space model.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figure

Well-Posedness And Accuracy Of The Ensemble Kalman Filter In Discrete And Continuous Time

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations associated with the filter, which are required to make a useable algorithm in practice, are derived in an ad hoc fashion. The aim of this paper is to initiate the development of a systematic analysis of the EnKF, in particular to do so in the small ensemble size limit. The perspective is to view the method as a state estimator, and not as an algorithm which approximates the true filtering distribution. The perturbed observation version of the algorithm is studied, without and with variance inflation. Without variance inflation well-posedness of the filter is established; with variance inflation accuracy of the filter, with resepct to the true signal underlying the data, is established. The algorithm is considered in discrete time, and also for a continuous time limit arising when observations are frequent and subject to large noise. The underlying dynamical model, and assumptions about it, is sufficiently general to include the Lorenz '63 and '96 models, together with the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus. The analysis is limited to the case of complete observation of the signal with additive white noise. Numerical results are presented for the Navier-Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus for both complete and partial observations of the signal with additive white noise

A Collaborative Kalman Filter for Time-Evolving Dyadic Processes

We present the collaborative Kalman filter (CKF), a dynamic model for collaborative filtering and related factorization models. Using the matrix factorization approach to collaborative filtering, the CKF accounts for time evolution by modeling each low-dimensional latent embedding as a multidimensional Brownian motion. Each observation is a random variable whose distribution is parameterized by the dot product of the relevant Brownian motions at that moment in time. This is naturally interpreted as a Kalman filter with multiple interacting state space vectors. We also present a method for learning a dynamically evolving drift parameter for each location by modeling it as a geometric Brownian motion. We handle posterior intractability via a mean-field variational approximation, which also preserves tractability for downstream calculations in a manner similar to the Kalman filter. We evaluate the model on several large datasets, providing quantitative evaluation on the 10 million Movielens and 100 million Netflix datasets and qualitative evaluation on a set of 39 million stock returns divided across roughly 6,500 companies from the years 1962-2014.Comment: Appeared at 2014 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM

Sigma Point Belief Propagation

The sigma point (SP) filter, also known as unscented Kalman filter, is an attractive alternative to the extended Kalman filter and the particle filter. Here, we extend the SP filter to nonsequential Bayesian inference corresponding to loopy factor graphs. We propose sigma point belief propagation (SPBP) as a low-complexity approximation of the belief propagation (BP) message passing scheme. SPBP achieves approximate marginalizations of posterior distributions corresponding to (generally) loopy factor graphs. It is well suited for decentralized inference because of its low communication requirements. For a decentralized, dynamic sensor localization problem, we demonstrate that SPBP can outperform nonparametric (particle-based) BP while requiring significantly less computations and communications.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figur

Dynamic Compressive Sensing of Time-Varying Signals via Approximate Message Passing

In this work the dynamic compressive sensing (CS) problem of recovering sparse, correlated, time-varying signals from sub-Nyquist, non-adaptive, linear measurements is explored from a Bayesian perspective. While there has been a handful of previously proposed Bayesian dynamic CS algorithms in the literature, the ability to perform inference on high-dimensional problems in a computationally efficient manner remains elusive. In response, we propose a probabilistic dynamic CS signal model that captures both amplitude and support correlation structure, and describe an approximate message passing algorithm that performs soft signal estimation and support detection with a computational complexity that is linear in all problem dimensions. The algorithm, DCS-AMP, can perform either causal filtering or non-causal smoothing, and is capable of learning model parameters adaptively from the data through an expectation-maximization learning procedure. We provide numerical evidence that DCS-AMP performs within 3 dB of oracle bounds on synthetic data under a variety of operating conditions. We further describe the result of applying DCS-AMP to two real dynamic CS datasets, as well as a frequency estimation task, to bolster our claim that DCS-AMP is capable of offering state-of-the-art performance and speed on real-world high-dimensional problems.Comment: 32 pages, 7 figure