11 research outputs found

    MODELLING & SIMULATION HYBRID WARFARE Researches, Models and Tools for Hybrid Warfare and Population Simulation

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    The Hybrid Warfare phenomena, which is the subject of the current research, has been framed by the work of Professor Agostino Bruzzone (University of Genoa) and Professor Erdal Cayirci (University of Stavanger), that in June 2016 created in order to inquiry the subject a dedicated Exploratory Team, which was endorsed by NATO Modelling & Simulation Group (a panel of the NATO Science & Technology organization) and established with the participation as well of the author. The author brought his personal contribution within the ET43 by introducing meaningful insights coming from the lecture of \u201cFight by the minutes: Time and the Art of War (1994)\u201d, written by Lieutenant Colonel US Army (Rtd.) Robert Leonhard; in such work, Leonhard extensively developed the concept that \u201cTime\u201d, rather than geometry of the battlefield and/or firepower, is the critical factor to tackle in military operations and by extension in Hybrid Warfare. The critical reflection about the time - both in its quantitative and qualitative dimension - in a hybrid confrontation it is addressed and studied inside SIMCJOH, a software built around challenges that imposes literally to \u201cFight by the minutes\u201d, echoing the core concept expressed in the eponymous work. Hybrid Warfare \u2013 which, by definition and purpose, aims to keep the military commitment of both aggressor and defender at the lowest - can gain enormous profit by employing a wide variety of non-military tools, turning them into a weapon, as in the case of the phenomena of \u201cweaponization of mass migrations\u201d, as it is examined in the \u201cDies Irae\u201d simulation architecture. Currently, since migration it is a very sensitive and divisive issue among the public opinions of many European countries, cynically leveraging on a humanitarian emergency caused by an exogenous, inducted migration, could result in a high level of political and social destabilization, which indeed favours the concurrent actions carried on by other hybrid tools. Other kind of disruption however, are already available in the arsenal of Hybrid Warfare, such cyber threats, information campaigns lead by troll factories for the diffusion of fake/altered news, etc. From this perspective the author examines how the TREX (Threat network simulation for REactive eXperience) simulator is able to offer insights about a hybrid scenario characterized by an intense level of social disruption, brought by cyber-attacks and systemic faking of news. Furthermore, the rising discipline of \u201cStrategic Engineering\u201d, as envisaged by Professor Agostino Bruzzone, when matched with the operational requirements to fulfil in order to counter Hybrid Threats, it brings another innovative, as much as powerful tool, into the professional luggage of the military and the civilian employed in Defence and Homeland security sectors. Hybrid is not the New War. What is new is brought by globalization paired with the transition to the information age and rising geopolitical tensions, which have put new emphasis on hybrid hostilities that manifest themselves in a contemporary way. Hybrid Warfare is a deliberate choice of an aggressor. While militarily weak nations can resort to it in order to re-balance the odds, instead military strong nations appreciate its inherent effectiveness coupled with the denial of direct responsibility, thus circumventing the rules of the International Community (IC). In order to be successful, Hybrid Warfare should consist of a highly coordinated, sapient mix of diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces (even criminal elements), cyber disruption etc. all in order to achieve effects across the entire DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. However, the owner of the strategy, i.e. the aggressor, by keeping the threshold of impunity as high as possible and decreasing the willingness of the defender, can maintain his Hybrid Warfare at a diplomatically feasible level; so the model of the capacity, willingness and threshold, as proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone and Gunneriusson (2016), remains critical to comprehend Hybrid Warfare. Its dynamicity is able to capture the evanescent, blurring line between Hybrid Warfare and Conventional Warfare. In such contest time is the critical factor: this because it is hard to foreseen for the aggressor how long he can keep up with such strategy without risking either the retaliation from the International Community or the depletion of resources across its own DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. Similar discourse affects the defender: if he isn\u2019t able to cope with Hybrid Threats (i.e. taking no action), time works against him; if he is, he can start to develop counter narrative and address physical countermeasures. However, this can lead, in the medium long period, to an unforeseen (both for the attacker and the defender) escalation into a large, conventional, armed conflict. The performance of operations that required more than kinetic effects drove the development of DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models and in turn this drive the development of Human Social Culture Behavior Modelling (HCSB), which should stand at the core of the Hybrid Warfare modelling and simulation efforts. Multi Layers models are fundamental to evaluate Strategies and Support Decisions: currently there are favourable conditions to implement models of Hybrid Warfare, such as Dies Irae, SIMCJOH and TREX, in order to further develop tools and war-games for studying new tactics, execute collective training and to support decisions making and analysis planning. The proposed approach is based on the idea to create a mosaic made by HLA interoperable simulators able to be combined as tiles to cover an extensive part of the Hybrid Warfare, giving the users an interactive and intuitive environment based on the \u201cModelling interoperable Simulation and Serious Game\u201d (MS2G) approach. From this point of view, the impressive capabilities achieved by IA-CGF in human behavior modeling to support population simulation as well as their native HLA structure, suggests to adopt them as core engine in this application field. However, it necessary to highlight that, when modelling DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT domains, the researcher has to be aware of the bias introduced by the fact that especially Political and Social \u201cscience\u201d are accompanied and built around value judgement. From this perspective, the models proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone, Guinnarson (2016) and by Balaban & Mileniczek (2018) are indeed a courageous tentative to import, into the domain of particularly poorly understood phenomena (social, politics, and to a lesser degree economics - Hartley, 2016), the mathematical and statistical instruments and the methodologies employed by the pure, hard sciences. Nevertheless, just using the instruments and the methodology of the hard sciences it is not enough to obtain the objectivity, and is such aspect the representations of Hybrid Warfare mechanics could meet their limit: this is posed by the fact that they use, as input for the equations that represents Hybrid Warfare, not physical data observed during a scientific experiment, but rather observation of the reality that assumes implicitly and explicitly a value judgment, which could lead to a biased output. Such value judgement it is subjective, and not objective like the mathematical and physical sciences; when this is not well understood and managed by the academic and the researcher, it can introduce distortions - which are unacceptable for the purpose of the Science - which could be used as well to enforce a narrative mainstream that contains a so called \u201ctruth\u201d, which lies inside the boundary of politics rather than Science. Those observations around subjectivity of social sciences vs objectivity of pure sciences, being nothing new, suggest however the need to examine the problem under a new perspective, less philosophical and more leaned toward the practical application. The suggestion that the author want make here is that the Verification and Validation process, in particular the methodology used by Professor Bruzzone in doing V&V for SIMCJOH (2016) and the one described in the Modelling & Simulation User Risk Methodology (MURM) developed by Pandolfini, Youngblood et all (2018), could be applied to evaluate if there is a bias and the extent of the it, or at least making clear the value judgment adopted in developing the DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models. Such V&V research is however outside the scope of the present work, even though it is an offspring of it, and for such reason the author would like to make further inquiries on this particular subject in the future. Then, the theoretical discourse around Hybrid Warfare has been completed addressing the need to establish a new discipline, Strategic Engineering, very much necessary because of the current a political and economic environment which allocates diminishing resources to Defense and Homeland Security (at least in Europe). However, Strategic Engineering can successfully address its challenges when coupled with the understanding and the management of the fourth dimension of military and hybrid operations, Time. For the reasons above, and as elaborated by Leonhard and extensively discussed in the present work, addressing the concern posed by Time dimension is necessary for the success of any military or Hybrid confrontation. The SIMCJOH project, examined under the above perspective, proved that the simulator has the ability to address the fourth dimension of military and non-military confrontation. In operations, Time is the most critical factor during execution, and this was successfully transferred inside the simulator; as such, SIMCJOH can be viewed as a training tool and as well a dynamic generator of events for the MEL/MIL execution during any exercise. In conclusion, SIMCJOH Project successfully faces new challenging aspects, allowed to study and develop new simulation models in order to support decision makers, Commanders and their Staff. Finally, the question posed by Leonhard in terms of recognition of the importance of time management of military operations - nowadays Hybrid Conflict - has not been answered yet; however, the author believes that Modelling and Simulation tools and techniques can represent the safe \u201ctank\u201d where innovative and advanced scientific solutions can be tested, exploiting the advantage of doing it in a synthetic environment

    Interactive Multiagent Adaptation of Individual Classification Models for Decision Support

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    An essential prerequisite for informed decision-making of intelligent agents is direct access to empirical knowledge for situation assessment. This contribution introduces an agent-oriented knowledge management framework for learning agents facing impediments in self-contained acquisition of classification models. The framework enables the emergence of dynamic knowledge networks among benevolent agents forming a community of practice in open multiagent systems. Agents in an advisee role are enabled to pinpoint learning impediments in terms of critical training cases and to engage in a goal-directed discourse with an advisor panel to overcome identified issues. The advisors provide arguments supporting and hence explaining those critical cases. Using such input as additional background knowledge, advisees can adapt their models in iterative relearning organized as a search through model space. An extensive empirical evaluation in two real-world domains validates the presented approach

    New Graphical Model for Computing Optimistic Decisions in Possibility Theory Framework

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    This paper first proposes a new graphical model for decision making under uncertainty based on min-based possibilistic networks. A decision problem under uncertainty is described by means of two distinct min-based possibilistic networks: the first one expresses agent's knowledge while the second one encodes agent's preferences representing a qualitative utility. We then propose an efficient algorithm for computing optimistic optimal decisions using our new model for representing possibilistic decision making under uncertainty. We show that the computation of optimal decisions comes down to compute a normalization degree of the junction tree associated with the graph resulting from the fusion of agent's beliefs and preferences. This paper also proposes an alternative way for computing optimal optimistic decisions. The idea is to transform the two possibilistic networks into two equivalent possibilistic logic knowledge bases, one representing agent's knowledge and the other represents agent's preferences. We show that computing an optimal optimistic decision comes down to compute the inconsistency degree of the union of the two possibilistic bases augmented with a given decision

    KSNet-Approach to Knowledge Fusion from Distributed Sources

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    The rapidity of the decision making process is an important factor in different branches of the human life (business, healthcare, industry, military applications etc.). Since responsible persons make decisions using available knowledge, it is important for knowledge management systems to deliver necessary and timely information. Knowledge logistics is a new direction in the knowledge management addressing this. Technology of knowledge fusion, based on the synergistic use of knowledge from multiple distributed sources, is a basis for these activities. The paper presents an overview of a Knowledge Source Network configuration approach (KSNet-approach) to knowledge fusion, multi-agent architecture and research prototype of the KSNet knowledge fusion system based on this approach

    Efficient Communication in Agent-based Autonomous Logistic Processes

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    Transportation of goods plays a vital role for the success of a logistics network. The ability to transport goods quickly and cost effectively is one of the major requirements of the customers. Dynamics involved in the logistics process like change or cancellation of orders or uncertain information about the orders add to the complexity of the logistic network and can even reduce the efficiency of the entire logistics process. This brings about a need of integrating technology and making the system more autonomous to handle these dynamics and to reduce the complexity. Therefore, the distributed logistics routing protocol (DLRP) was developed at the University of Bremen. In this thesis, DLRP is extended with the concept of clustering of transport goods, two novel routing decision schemes and a negotiation process between the cluster of goods and the vehicle. DLRP provides the individual logistic entities the ability to perform routing tasks autonomously e.g., discovering the best route to the destination at the given time. Even though DLRP seems to solve the routing problem in real-time, the amount of message flooding involved in the route discovery process is enormous. This motivated the author to introduce a cluster-based routing approach using software agents. The DLRP along with the clustering algorithm is termed as the cluster-based DLRP. In the latter, the goods are first clustered into groups based on criteria such as the common destination. The routing is now handled by the cluster head rather than the individual transport goods which results in a reduced communication volume in the route discovery. The latter is proven by evaluating the performance of the cluster-based DLRP approach compared to the legacy DLRP. After the routing process is completed by the cluster heads, the next step is to improve the transport performance in the logistics network by identifying the best means to transport the clustered goods. For example, to have better utilization of the transport capacity, clusters can be transported together on a stretch of overlapping route. In order to make optimal transport decisions, the vehicle calculates the correlation metric of the routes selected by the various clusters. The correlation metric aids in identifying the clusters which can be transported together and thereby can result in better utilization of the transport resources. In turn, the transportation cost that has to be paid to the vehicle can be shared between the different clusters. The transportation cost for a stretch of route is calculated by the vehicle and offered to the cluster. The latter can decide based upon the transportation cost or the selected route whether to accept the transport offer from the vehicle or not. In this regard, different strategies are developed and investigated. Thereby a performance evaluation of the capacity utilization of the vehicle and the transportation cost incurred by the cluster is presented. Finally, the thesis introduces the concept of negotiation in the cluster based routing methods. The negotiation process enhances the transport decisions by giving the clusters and the vehicles the flexibility to negotiate the transportation cost. Thus, the focus of this part of the thesis is to analyse the negotiation strategies used by the logistics entities and their role in saving negotiation time while achieving a favorable transportation cost. In this regard, a performance evaluation of the different proposed strategies is presented, which in turn gives the logistics practitioners an overview of the best strategy to be deployed in various scenarios. Clustering of goods aid in the negotiation process as on the one hand, a group of transport goods have a stronger basis for negotiation to achieve a favorable transportation price from the vehicle. On the other hand it makes it easier for the vehicle to select the packages for transport and helps the vehicle to operate close to its capacity. In addition, clustering enables the negotiation process to be less complex and voluminous. From the analytical considerations and obtained results in the three parts of this thesis, it can be concluded that efficient transport decisions, though very complex in a logistics network, can be simplified to a certain extent utilizing the available information of the goods and vehicles in the network

    Vernetzt planen und produzieren VPP 2006 : Tagungsband Chemnitz 14. und 15. September 2006: Vernetzt planen und produzieren VPP 2006 : Tagungsband Chemnitz14. und 15. September 2006

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    Vor dem Hintergrund sich immer schneller und stärker wandelnder Marktbedingungen gelten Netzwerke als die Unternehmensform des 21. Jahrhunderts. Sie erlauben insbesondere kleinen und mittelständischen Unternehmen die Erhaltung und Erhöhung ihrer Wettbewerbsfähigkeit durch gezielte Kooperation und Bündelung ihrer Kompetenzen. Unternehmen benötigen dafür entsprechende Methoden und Instrumentarien. Diese stehen neben Theorien und Modellen im Mittelpunkt der wissenschaftlichen Arbeiten des Sonderforschungsbereiches (SFB) 457 „Hierarchielose regionale Produktionsnetze“ an der Technischen Universität Chemnitz. Zum nunmehr fünften Male findet am 14. und 15. September 2006 die Fachtagung „Vernetzt planen und produzieren – VPP 2006“ statt. Es werden auch in diesem Jahr die aktuellen Ergebnisse des SFB 457, weiterer nationaler und internationaler Forschungsarbeiten und -projekte auf dem Gebiet der Netzwerkforschung sowie Erkenntnisse und Erfahrungen der praktischen Umsetzung durch die Industrie von Wissenschaftlern und Praktikern vorgestellt und diskutiert. Als Referenten der Plenarveranstaltung werden Herr Prof. Kuhn von der Universität Dortmund, Herr Prof. Westkämper von der Universität Stuttgart, Herr Prof. Herzog von der Universität Bremen, Herr Prof. Nyhuis von der Universität Hannover und Herr Prof. Smirnov von der Russischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Sankt Petersburg in ihren Beiträgen verschiedene Aspekte von Netzwerken thematisieren. Neben den schon traditionellen Workshops zu verschiedenen Themenbereichen des Bildens und Betreibens von Netzwerken wird in diesem Jahr ein zusätzlicher Workshop zum Thema „Netzwerke und Cluster in der brasilianisch-deutschen Zusammenarbeit“ stattfinden. Dieser ist Teil des Besuches einer Delegation aus Vertretern der Regierung und Wirtschaft des brasilianischen Bundesstaates Bahia, die gemeinsam mit Vertretern des Bundesministeriums für Bildung und Forschung sowie des Sächsischen Ministeriums für Wirtschaft und Arbeit an der Tagung teilnehmen werden, um neue Kontakte zu schließen und weitere Kooperationsvorhaben zu initiieren. Die Tagung „Vernetzt planen und produzieren – VPP 2006“ ist gleichzeitig Abschlusskolloquium des SFB 457, welcher nach sieben Jahren intensiver und erfolgreicher Netzforschung dieses Jahr endet. Maßgeblichen Anteil am SFB 457 hatten die ehemaligen Sprecher Prof. Siegfried Wirth und Prof. Hartmut Enderlein

    Разработка многоагентной технологии управления контекстом в открытой информационной среде

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    Methodology and research prototype of multiagent technology for context management in an open information environment for intelligent decision support have been developed. Formalism of object-oriented constraint networks used for knowledge representation is presented. A set of technological and problem-oriented agents used for accomplishing purposes of context management in open information environment is defined. Models and scenarios of agent interactions are developed. The prototype is tested using a case study for a complex task of portable hospital configuration in an emergency situation of a disaster event.Разработаны, методология и исследовательский прототип многоагентной технологии управления контекстом в открытой информационной среде в рамках интеллектуальной поддержки принятия решений. Показано использование формализма объектно-ориентированных сетей ограничений для представления знаний. Определен набор технологических и проблемно-ориентированных агентов для решения задач управления контекстомв открытой информационной среде, разработаны модели и сценарии их взаимодействия. Исследовательский прототип протестирован на примере комплексной задачи конфигурирования мобильного госпиталя в ситуации техногенной катастрофы

    Context-based modelling of information demand: approaches from information logistics and decision support

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    Readily available information is a crucial basis for making decisions, solving problems, or performing knowledge intensive work. Providing such information meeting the needs of a user has to be based on an accurate, purpose-oriented and up-to-date representation of the demand in question. The paper is devoted to a study of different context-based models of user demand. The selected approaches from the fields of information logistics and decision support are based on enterprise models and objectoriented constraint networks (OOCN). Combining these approaches will allow for an orchestrated use of enterprise models and OOCN for decision support. Discussion and integration of these approaches is illustrated using an example enterprise model, a related information demand context and a corresponding decision support context

    Ontology-based knowledge management for technology intensive industries

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