Learning and Designing Stochastic Processes from Logical Constraints

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics must be known exactly. As this is seldom the case, many methods have been devised over the last decade to infer (learn) such parameters from observations of the state of the system. In this paper, we depart from this approach by assuming that our observations are {\it qualitative} properties encoded as satisfaction of linear temporal logic formulae, as opposed to quantitative observations of the state of the system. An important feature of this approach is that it unifies naturally the system identification and the system design problems, where the properties, instead of observations, represent requirements to be satisfied. We develop a principled statistical estimation procedure based on maximising the likelihood of the system's parameters, using recent ideas from statistical machine learning. We demonstrate the efficacy and broad applicability of our method on a range of simple but non-trivial examples, including rumour spreading in social networks and hybrid models of gene regulation

Data-driven modelling of biological multi-scale processes

Biological processes involve a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A holistic understanding of many biological processes therefore requires multi-scale models which capture the relevant properties on all these scales. In this manuscript we review mathematical modelling approaches used to describe the individual spatial scales and how they are integrated into holistic models. We discuss the relation between spatial and temporal scales and the implication of that on multi-scale modelling. Based upon this overview over state-of-the-art modelling approaches, we formulate key challenges in mathematical and computational modelling of biological multi-scale and multi-physics processes. In particular, we considered the availability of analysis tools for multi-scale models and model-based multi-scale data integration. We provide a compact review of methods for model-based data integration and model-based hypothesis testing. Furthermore, novel approaches and recent trends are discussed, including computation time reduction using reduced order and surrogate models, which contribute to the solution of inference problems. We conclude the manuscript by providing a few ideas for the development of tailored multi-scale inference methods.Comment: This manuscript will appear in the Journal of Coupled Systems and Multiscale Dynamics (American Scientific Publishers

Safe Policy Synthesis in Multi-Agent POMDPs via Discrete-Time Barrier Functions

A multi-agent partially observable Markov decision process (MPOMDP) is a modeling paradigm used for high-level planning of heterogeneous autonomous agents subject to uncertainty and partial observation. Despite their modeling efficiency, MPOMDPs have not received significant attention in safety-critical settings. In this paper, we use barrier functions to design policies for MPOMDPs that ensure safety. Notably, our method does not rely on discretization of the belief space, or finite memory. To this end, we formulate sufficient and necessary conditions for the safety of a given set based on discrete-time barrier functions (DTBFs) and we demonstrate that our formulation also allows for Boolean compositions of DTBFs for representing more complicated safe sets. We show that the proposed method can be implemented online by a sequence of one-step greedy algorithms as a standalone safe controller or as a safety-filter given a nominal planning policy. We illustrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology based on DTBFs using a high-fidelity simulation of heterogeneous robots.Comment: 8 pages and 4 figure

An extended Kalman filtering approach to modeling nonlinear dynamic gene regulatory networks via short gene expression time series

Copyright [2009] IEEE. This material is posted here with permission of the IEEE. Such permission of the IEEE does not in any way imply IEEE endorsement of any of Brunel University's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution must be obtained from the IEEE by writing to [email protected]. By choosing to view this document, you agree to all provisions of the copyright laws protecting it.In this paper, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm is applied to model the gene regulatory network from gene time series data. The gene regulatory network is considered as a nonlinear dynamic stochastic model that consists of the gene measurement equation and the gene regulation equation. After specifying the model structure, we apply the EKF algorithm for identifying both the model parameters and the actual value of gene expression levels. It is shown that the EKF algorithm is an online estimation algorithm that can identify a large number of parameters (including parameters of nonlinear functions) through iterative procedure by using a small number of observations. Four real-world gene expression data sets are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the EKF algorithm, and the obtained models are evaluated from the viewpoint of bioinformatics

Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.Peer reviewedPostprin