Multi-State System Reliability: A New and Systematic Review

AbstractReliability analysis considering multiple possible states is known as multi-state (MS) reliability analysis. Multi-state system reliability models allow both the system and its components to assume more than two levels of performance. Through multi-state reliability models provide more realistic and more precise representations of engineering systems, they are much more complex and present major difficulties in system definition and performance evaluation. MSS reliability has received a substantial amount of attention in the past four decades. This article presents a new and systematic review about multi-state system reliability. A timely review is an effective work related to improving the development of MSS theory. The review about the latest studies and advances about multi-state system reliability evaluation, multi-state systems optimization and multi-state systems maintenance is summarized in this paper

Integration of production, maintenance and quality : Modelling and solution approaches

Dans cette thèse, nous analysons le problème de l'intégration de la planification de production et de la maintenance préventive, ainsi que l'élaboration du système de contrôle de la qualité. Premièrement, on considère un système de production composé d'une machine et de plusieurs produits dans un contexte incertain, dont les prix et le coût changent d'une période à l'autre. La machine se détériore avec le temps et sa probabilité de défaillance, ainsi que le risque de passage à un état hors contrôle augmentent. Le taux de défaillance dans un état dégradé est plus élevé et donc, des coûts liés à la qualité s’imposent. Lorsque la machine tombe en panne, une maintenance corrective ou une réparation minimale seront initiées pour la remettre en marche sans influer ses conditions ou le processus de détérioration. L'augmentation du nombre de défaillances de la machine se traduit par un temps d'arrêt supérieur et un taux de disponibilité inférieur. D'autre part, la réalisation des plans de production est fortement influencée par la disponibilité et la fiabilité de la machine. Les interactions entre la planification de la maintenance et celle de la production sont incorporées dans notre modèle mathématique. Dans la première étape, l'effet de maintenance sur la qualité est pris en compte. La maintenance préventive est considérée comme imparfaite. La condition de la machine est définie par l’âge actuel, et la machine dispose de plusieurs niveaux de maintenance avec des caractéristiques différentes (coûts, délais d'exécution et impacts sur les conditions du système). La détermination des niveaux de maintenance préventive optimaux conduit à un problème d’optimisation difficile. Un modèle de maximisation du profit est développé, dans lequel la vente des produits conformes et non conformes, les coûts de la production, les stocks tenus, la rupture de stock, la configuration de la machine, la maintenance préventive et corrective, le remplacement de la machine et le coût de la qualité sont considérés dans la fonction de l’objectif. De plus, un système composé de plusieurs machines est étudié. Dans cette extension, les nombres optimaux d’inspections est également considéré. La fonction de l’objectif consiste à minimiser le coût total qui est la somme des coûts liés à la maintenance, la production et la qualité. Ensuite, en tenant compte de la complexité des modèles préposés, nous développons des méthodes de résolution efficaces qui sont fondées sur la combinaison d'algorithmes génétiques avec des méthodes de recherches locales. On présente un algorithme mimétique qui emploi l’algorithme Nelder-Mead, avec un logiciel d'optimisation pour déterminer les valeurs exactes de plusieurs variables de décisions à chaque évaluation. La méthode de résolution proposée est comparée, en termes de temps d’exécution et de qualités des solutions, avec plusieurs méthodes Métaheuristiques. Mots-clés : Planification de la production, Maintenance préventive imparfaite, Inspection, Qualité, Modèles intégrés, MétaheuristiquesIn this thesis, we study the integrated planning of production, maintenance, and quality in multi-product, multi-period imperfect systems. First, we consider a production system composed of one machine and several products in a time-varying context. The machine deteriorates with time and so, the probability of machine failure, or the risk of a shift to an out-of-control state, increases. The defective rate in the shifted state is higher and so, quality related costs will be imposed. When the machine fails, a corrective maintenance or a minimal repair will be initiated to bring the machine in operation without influencing on its conditions or on the deterioration process. Increasing the expected number of machine failures results in a higher downtime and a lower availability rate. On the other hand, realization of the production plans is significantly influenced by the machine availability and reliability. The interactions between maintenance scheduling and production planning are incorporated in the mathematical model. In the first step, the impact of maintenance on the expected quality level is addressed. The maintenance is also imperfect and the machine conditions after maintenance can be anywhere between as-good-as-new and as-bad-as-old situations. Machine conditions are stated by its effective age, and the machine has several maintenance levels with different costs, execution times, and impacts on the system conditions. High level maintenances on the one hand have greater influences on the improvement of the system state and on the other hand, they occupy more the available production time. The optimal determination of such preventive maintenance levels to be performed at each maintenance intrusion is a challenging problem. A profit maximization model is developed, where the sale of conforming and non-conforming products, costs of production, inventory holding, backorder, setup, preventive and corrective maintenance, machine replacement, and the quality cost are addressed in the objective function. Then, a system with multiple machines is taken into account. In this extension, the number of quality inspections is involved in the joint model. The objective function minimizes the total cost which is the sum of maintenance, production and quality costs. In order to reduce the gap between the theory and the application of joint models, and taking into account the complexity of the integrated problems, we have developed an efficient solution method that is based on the combination of genetic algorithms with local search and problem specific methods. The proposed memetic algorithm employs Nelder-Mead algorithm along with an optimization package for exact determination of the values of several decision variables in each chromosome evolution. The method extracts not only the positive knowledge in good solutions, but also the negative knowledge in poor individuals to determine the algorithm transitions. The method is compared in terms of the solution time and quality to several heuristic methods. Keywords : Multi-period production planning, Imperfect preventive maintenance, Inspection, Quality, Integrated model, Metaheuristic

Wind Power Performance Optimization Considering Redundancy and Opportunistic Maintenance

In This paper the redundancy and imperfect opportunistic maintenance optimization of a multi-state weighted k-out-of-n system is formulated. The objective is to determine the k-out-of-n system redundancy level and the maintenance strategy which will minimize the wind farm life cycle cost subject to an availability constraint. A new condition based opportunistic maintenance approach is developed. Different component health state thresholds are introduced for imperfect maintenance of failed subsystems and working subsystems and preventive dispatching of maintenance teams. In addition, a simulation method is developed to evaluate the performance measures of the system considering different types of subsystems, maintenance activation delays and durations, limited number of maintenance teams, and discrete inspection of the system. Also, a multi-seed tabu search heuristic algorithm is also proposed to solve the formulated problem. An application to the optimal design of a wind farm is provided to illustrate the proposed approach

A Condition-Based Maintenance Model for Assets with Accelerated Deterioration Due to Fault Propagation

Complex industrial assets such as power transformers are subject to accelerated deterioration when one of its constituent component malfunctions, affecting the condition of other components, which is a phenomenon called fault propagation. In this paper, we present a novel approach for optimizing condition-based maintenance policies for such assets by modelling their deterioration as a multiple dependent deterioration path process. The aim of the policy is to replace the malfunctioned component and mitigate accelerated deterioration at minimal impact to the business. The maintenance model provides guidance on determining inspection and maintenance strategies to optimize asset availability and operational cost.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TR.2015.243913

Integrated Workload Allocation and Condition-based Maintenance Threshold Optimisation

Effective asset management is considered key to reducing total costs of asset ownership while enhancing machine availability, guaranteeing security, and increasing productivity. Amongst all the activities involved in asset management, maintenance has been one of the major focus areas of academic research due to its potential in helping manufacturers to generate the most value from their assets. The emergence of condition-based maintenance (CBM) in which decisions are made based on the real-time condition of assets, has opened up new possibilities in developing more comprehensive approaches to improve the performance of production systems. For instance, a trend has been observed where attempts are made to couple CBM decisions with those on other production-related factors such as inventory control, spare parts management, and labour routing. The intrinsic link between the degradation behaviour of and the workload allocated to an asset, however, has not been sufficiently studied. Consequently, the potential benefits of intervening in machine degradation, either in the context of a single asset or a fleet of assets, are rarely explored. It is therefore essential that a systematic approach is at hand to improve system performance by exploiting the inter-relationship between production and maintenance. This thesis is dedicated to developing a dynamic integrated decision-making model to improve the system-level performance of a fleet of parallel assets. The aim of the model is to realise the potential benefits, mainly in the form of lower maintenance costs and reduced penalty costs incurred due to loss of production, by simultaneously optimising workload allocation and the CBM threshold. The decision-making model is implemented using an agent-based system involving two types of agents - 1) machine agents that reside within each individual machine; and 2) a coordinator agent that oversees the entire system. The integrated decision-making model is constituted of two components - 1) a workload-dependent condition-based maintenance optimisation model based on Gamma Process at the asset level through a machine agent; and 2) a workload allocation strategy at the system level implemented by a coordinator agent. Numerical analysis is performed to demonstrate the rationale behind the decision-making process, which is to reach the most desirable balance between maintenance costs and penalty costs incurred by loss of production. The capability of the model to reduce total costs is demonstrated via comparison with traditional strategies such as uniform and random workload allocation. Additionally, the sensitivity analysis conducted has helped to reveal the respective factors that impact the potential reduction in maintenance costs and that in penalty costs, which include the sensitivity of asset degradation to workloads, heterogeneity of assets, penalty cost for a unit of production loss, redundancy of the system, etc. The model presented in this study not only assists operation and maintenance managers to make decisions on the optimal combination of workload allocation and maintenance plans for assets in a production system, but also provides guidance on whether they should invest in workload control capabilities. Furthermore, the proposed approach allows practitioners to evaluate the long-term impacts of sudden events such as an increase in demand, a decrease in the number of redundant machines, and a change in the cost of maintenance actions

Risk-based shutdown inspection and maintenance for a processing facility

In this research, a risk-based shutdown inspection and maintenance interval optimization for a processing facility is proposed. Often inspection and maintenance activities can’t be performed until the processing unit or plant is taken into a non-operational state, generally known as “shutdown”. Extensive work on inspection and maintenance interval estimation modeling is available in the concerned literature however, no to very limited application on shutdown inspection and maintenance modeling is observed for a continuous operating facility. Majority of the published literature deals to optimize individual equipment inspection and maintenance interval without considering the overall impact of plant unavailability due to shutdown. They all deal to optimize individual equipment inspection and maintenance interval considering cost, risk, availability and reliability. The efforts towards finding an optimal inspection and maintenance interval is not considered in these studies especially when it requires unit or plant to be in shutdown state from an operational state for performing inspection and maintenance. This topic is selected to bridge the existing gap in the available literature and to provide a means to develop a methodology to estimate the shutdown inspection and maintenance interval for a continuous processing unit or plant, rather an inspection and maintenance interval for each piece of equipment considering the overall asset availability, reliability and risk. A component failure due to wear or degradation is a major threat to asset failure in a processing facility. A carefully planned inspection and maintenance strategy not only mitigate the effects of age-based degradation and reduce the threat of failure but also minimize the risk exposure. Generally failure caused by wear or degradation is modeled as a stochastic process. For an effective inspection and maintenance strategy, the stochastic nature of failure has to be taken into consideration. The proposed methodology aims to minimize the risk of exposure considering effect of failure on human life, financial investment and environment by optimizing the interval of process unit shutdown. Risk-based shutdown inspection and maintenance optimization quantifies the risk to which individual equipment are subjected and uses this as a basis for the optimization of a shutdown inspection and maintenance strategy

A review on maintenance optimization

To this day, continuous developments of technical systems and increasing reliance on equipment have resulted in a growing importance of effective maintenance activities. During the last couple of decades, a substantial amount of research has been carried out on this topic. In this study we review more than two hundred papers on maintenance modeling and optimization that have appeared in the period 2001 to 2018. We begin by describing terms commonly used in the modeling process. Then, in our classification, we first distinguish single-unit and multi-unit systems. Further sub-classification follows, based on the state space of the deterioration process modeled. Other features that we discuss in this review are discrete and continuous condition monitoring, inspection, replacement, repair, and the various types of dependencies that may exist between units within systems. We end with the main developments during the review period and with potential future research directions

Optimisation de la planification intégrée de la maintenance préventive et de la production des systèmes multi-états

Cette thèse traite la problématique de la planification intégrée de la maintenance préventive et de la production des systèmes multi-états. Il s'agit d'un système de production modélisé comme étant un système multi-états avec un nombre fini de niveaux de capacité allant du fonctionnement parfait jusqu'à la défaillance totale. Il doit produire un ensemble de produits pour satisfaire une demande donnée durant l'horizon de planification. Les composantes du système multi-états sont assujetties à des remplacements préventifs et à une réparation minimale en cas de panne. Ce travail présente des modèles de planification permettant de générer simultanément le plan optimal de production au niveau tactique (problème de taille de lot capaci-taire) et les instants ou les intervalles d'intervention pour des actions de maintenance préventive. Les fonctions des objectifs de ces modèles minimisent la somme des coûts de la maintenance (préventive et corrective) et des coûts de production sujets à des contraintes de satisfaction de demande et de capacité. La méthodologie proposée développe des modèles mathématiques, des méthodes d'évaluation des temps de maintenance, des coûts de maintenance, les capacités relatives aux systèmes et des algorithmes de résolution pour obtenir des solutions optimales (recherche exhaustive) ou approximatives (algorithmes génétiques et recuit simulé). Cette méthodologie a été utilisée dans les trois contributions suivantes : 1. La première contribution propose un modèle de planification de la maintenance préventive périodique et de la production pour un système multi-états. Il s'agit de déterminer le plan de production optimal et les longueurs des intervalles de remplacement pour chaque composante du système. 2. La deuxième contribution traite du problème de la planification intégrée de la maintenance préventive acyclique et de la production dans le cas d'une seule machine. Le plan optimal détermine le plan de production et les instants d'intervention pour des activités de maintenance préventive. 3. La troisième contribution propose un modèle une planification simultanée de la maintenance préventive acyclique et de la production pour un système multi-états composé de plusieurs composantes. Les résultats obtenus dans cette thèse montrent l'impact économique réalisé par l'intégration de la planification de la maintenance préventive et de la production, ainsi que pour l'élimination de la contrainte de périodicité, surtout dans le cas d'une demande fluctuante. Les méthodes de résolution développées dans ces travaux permettent la résolution de problèmes de petite ou de grande taille

Post-Sale Cost Modeling and Optimization Linking Warranty and Preventive Maintenance

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Availability estimation and management for complex processing systems

“Availability” is the terminology used in asset intensive industries such as petrochemical and hydrocarbons processing to describe the readiness of equipment, systems or plants to perform their designed functions. It is a measure to suggest a facility’s capability of meeting targeted production in a safe working environment. Availability is also vital as it encompasses reliability and maintainability, allowing engineers to manage and operate facilities by focusing on one performance indicator. These benefits make availability a very demanding and highly desired area of interest and research for both industry and academia. In this dissertation, new models, approaches and algorithms have been explored to estimate and manage the availability of complex hydrocarbon processing systems. The risk of equipment failure and its effect on availability is vital in the hydrocarbon industry, and is also explored in this research. The importance of availability encouraged companies to invest in this domain by putting efforts and resources to develop novel techniques for system availability enhancement. Most of the work in this area is focused on individual equipment compared to facility or system level availability assessment and management. This research is focused on developing an new systematic methods to estimate system availability. The main focus areas in this research are to address availability estimation and management through physical asset management, risk-based availability estimation strategies, availability and safety using a failure assessment framework, and availability enhancement using early equipment fault detection and maintenance scheduling optimization