Predicting the Market Share of a New Airport in Multi-Airport Cities: the Case of Lagos

The primary objective of the study was to develop an empirical model that combines the contingent valuation method (CVM) with the isochrone analysis to predict the market shares of new airports in multi-airport cities and to apply the model to the case of Lekki International Airport (LIA), the proposed second airport in Lagos, Nigeria. In addition to predicting the market share that LIA could attain, the study also identified and analyzed the catchment areas as well as the willingness to pay (WTP) of would-be LIA passengers. Furthermore, the research identified the determinants of airport choice in the Nigerian market. The CVM was used for the collection of the data; 1,176 valid in-person interviews were conducted at Murtala Mohammed International Airport (MMIA), Lagos. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis were used to predict LIA’s market share and identify the factors that influenced passengers’ choice between the existing and the proposed second airport. Further, isochrones and passenger stated preference data were analyzed for the determination of the LIA’s catchment areas for the business and non-business segments of the Nigerian market as well as the areas of spatial competition between MMIA and LIA. With regard to the passengers’ willingness to pay, the median of the WTP values was determined through descriptive statistics. The determinants of the WTP were also identified using a multiple regression analysis. Using the combination of CVM and isochrone analysis, the present research predicted that LIA will attain 28.9% of the market share based on the contingent scenario presented to the passengers. Further, the study found that the exclusive catchment areas of LIA for business and non-business passengers were limited to two Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Lagos State. Passengers who chose LIA as their first choice were willing to pay NGN3000 (about $15 or 15% of an average domestic one-way ticket price) as additional fare to fly from the airport. However, the realization of the predicted market share will be contingent on LIA’s ability to attract airlines, remedy the isolation of the proposed airport site, and apply the appropriate pricing policy

Time, the other dimension of urban form: Measuring the relationship between urban density and accessibility to grocery shops in the 10-minute city

Compact settlements take advantage of economies of scale by sustaining a system of high-quality socio-economic services at close proximities. Urban density with a balanced mix of uses also benefits walking and cycling as mobility modes that provide sufficient access to urban amenities, especially when combined with effective public transport. Indeed, walking and cycling can decrease the use of cars for short-distance trips. From this perspective, urban density can help to reduce pollution, optimise energy consumption and decrease infrastructural expenditures while contributing to more attractive urban environments. These ideas have induced a new wave of time geography planning concepts, such as the ‘10-minute city’, to enhance urban sustainability. For these concepts to move beyond visionary narratives, they must be expressed in specific empirical frameworks. Thus, the current research focuses on accessibility to grocery shops, as an essential urban service, in the Stavanger metropolitan area (Norway) using 10 minutes isochrones for walking and cycling. The study integrates open data, GIS network analyses, statistical regressions and bivariate representations of the results. The research estimates the level of serviceability by quantifying the number of shops that are accessible for each location and interrelates this estimation with spatial and population densities. The paper also presents a method to detect spatial inequalities by visualising over/under-serviced areas. This visualisation can become a tool to support strategies to rebalance such imbalances. Moreover, this study offers a practical approach towards the ‘10-minute city’ concept, as it can be adjusted to different isochrones at different spatial scales. In general, this approach can serve both to analyse existing contexts and to model strategies to support sustainability policies, such as urban densification and the promotion of environmental-friendly transport.publishedVersio

Measuring Accessibility For Pedestrians, Bicyclists, And Transit Riders To Grocery Stores In The Excelsior/Outer Mission Neighborhoods Of San Francisco

Grocery stores are an important amenity in neighborhoods and access to grocery stores is important for health and well-being. While grocery store accessibility is a popular topic of research, studies measuring access for pedestrians, bicyclists, and transit riders are extremely rare. When a new store opened in the Excelsior/Outer Mission districts of San Francisco on a street lacking basic infrastructure for pedestrians, bicyclists, and transit riders, the importance of this study became apparent. The Excelsior/Outer Mission neighborhood has a shocking number of collisions (over 1,100 between 2015 and 2019), elevated levels of walking, biking, and transit ridership, and minimal safe infrastructure for these modes compared to other residential areas in San Francisco. To account for the effects of these conditions on accessibility, a rating system to measure infrastructure for users was used in addition to the more traditional gravity model. Combining results into a composite accessibility score highlights how using only a gravity model to measure accessibility may conceal some of the nuances of accessibility as perceived by pedestrians, bicyclists, and transit riders. While it appears from gravity indices that stores in the Excelsior/Outer Mission are only slightly less accessible, the sensitivity analysis shows that infrastructure can have a large effect on overall accessibility. Specifically in the Excelsior/Outer Mission neighborhood, with its rather low infrastructure scores, the higher the weight attributed to the importance of infrastructure the lower is composite accessibility. Rather than measuring accessibility using only travel time via a gravity model or other spatial model, this study shows the importance of combining physical proximity measurements with infrastructure information to provide a more complete picture. This is particularly important for those walking, biking, or riding transit where safety is an important consideration. This study provides one such way to include the unique considerations of pedestrians, bicyclists, and transit riders by including an infrastructure scoring system. Not only does this highlight the importance of including infrastructure measures, but it provides a framework for future infrastructure improvements around stores

Inter-modality hubs in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona: A comparison between the metropolitan and the local scale in a GIS tool to support urban planning decisions

Tratar con las necesidades de transporte de la sociedad urbana y, al mismo tiempo, mejorar la habitabilidad y la sostenibilidad de la ciudad es el problema al que nos enfrentamos hoy. El bicibox es un servicio gratuito de estacionamiento de bicicletas de larga duración que presenta una oportunidad única para incorporar la movilidad activa en las estaciones de tránsito y, al mismo tiempo, mejorar la vida en las calles de los barrios. Por lo tanto, el objetivo de este estudio es determinar el impacto que tienen los servicios de bicibox en el crecimiento de la zona de influencia de las estaciones de FGC (Ferrocarrils de la Generalitat de Catalunya) en el municipio de Sant Cugat del Vallès. El Àrea Metropolitana de Barcelona (AMB) proporcionó datos sobre los usuarios de Bicibox para este estudio. Para lograr los objetivos del estudio, los datos de los usuarios se analizaron en tres escalas para identificar las preferencias de los usuarios, los comportamientos y las variables de influencia. Los métodos utilizados para esta investigación incluyeron la comparación de gráficos, un mapa QGIS y una investigación de los servicios cerca del centro de movilidad. Esta tesis concluye que los usuarios prefieren estaciones de Bicibox colocadas directamente frente a las estaciones de tránsito y que estas sean muy visibles. Adicionalmente, se determinó que las estaciones de bicicletas que se encuentran justo en frente de una estación de tren, en una estación de autobuses o en el medio de ambas estaciones funcionan mejor que las estaciones de bicibox situadas en una ubicación más lejana. Además, se ha comprobado que el uso de bicibox tiene un efecto positivo en la ampliación de las áreas de captación de las estaciones de FGC en el Municipio de Sant Cugat del Vallès. También se estimó el tamaño del área de captación y la dirección de expansión. .Dealing with the transportation needs of urban society while simultane-ously enhancing the liveability and sustainability of the city is the problem we confront today. The bicibox, a free long-term bicycle parking service, presents a unique opportunity to incorporate active mobility into transit stations while also enhancing the street life of the neighbourhoods. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the extent of impact bicibox services have on the growth of the catchment area for FGC (Ferro-carrils de la Generalitat de Catalunya) railway stations in the Municipality of Sant Cugat del Vallès. Àrea Metropolitana de Barcelona (AMB) provided data on Bicibox users for this study. To achieve the study's objectives, user data was analysed on three scales to identify user preferences, behaviours, and influence varia-bles. Methods used for this research included graph comparison, a QGIS map, and an investigation of amenities near the mobility hub. This thesis concluded that users prefer biciboxes that are placed directly in front of transit stations and are highly visible. Additionally, it was de-termined that bicycle stations that are situated right in front of a railway station, a bus station, or in the middle of both stations perform better than bicibox stations located further away from the station. The usage of bicibox was also found to have a positive effect on the expansion of the catchment areas for the FGC railway stations in the Municipality of Sant Cugat del Vallès. The catchment area's size and expansion direction were also estimated

A methodology for the incorporation of social inclusion into transport policy

4-8 July 2004. Istanbul, Turke

Scalable Exact Visualization of Isocontours in Road Networks via Minimum-Link Paths

Isocontours in road networks represent the area that is reachable from a source within a given resource limit. We study the problem of computing accurate isocontours in realistic, large-scale networks. We propose isocontours represented by polygons with minimum number of segments that separate reachable and unreachable components of the network. Since the resulting problem is not known to be solvable in polynomial time, we introduce several heuristics that run in (almost) linear time and are simple enough to be implemented in practice. A key ingredient is a new practical linear-time algorithm for minimum-link paths in simple polygons. Experiments in a challenging realistic setting show excellent performance of our algorithms in practice, computing near-optimal solutions in a few milliseconds on average, even for long ranges

The Solent Disturbance & Mitigation Project. Phase II – results of the Solent household survey

This report sets out the results of the postal household survey component of the Solent Disturbance and Mitigation project. The work was commissioned by the Solent Forum in response to concerns over the impact of recreational pressure on features of the Solent SPA, SAC and Ramsar Sites. Of particular concern are the cumulative impacts of recreational use arising from potential new housing developments in Chichester District and South Hampshire. The household survey was distributed to 5000 households within 25km of the coastline between Hurst Castle, including the north shoreline of the Isle of Wight. The questionnaires and reminders were sent between October and December 2010. The household survey contained three sections which elicited information relating to general and specific visits to the coast and household demographics. A total of 1382 completed questionnaires were returned and 42% of these households had visited the coast the week prior to completing the survey. Only 4% of households (56) stated they never visited the coast. Households which did not visit the coast contained a lower number of people, lower number of dogs and a higher percentage did not have regular access to a private vehicle when compared to households that made regular coastal visits. Of the households which visited the coast, 50% visited at least once a week. A total of 55% of households visited the coast equally all year and an additional 39% of households made more visits in the summer. There was a significant difference in coastal visit frequency between households which owned a least one dog and non dog owning households, with dog owning households making more visits. There was no significant difference in visit frequency between households who had garden access or whether the household dwelling type was a flat or ‘non- flat’. The 1155 households providing full responses to the survey made an estimated annual total of 153,433 visits to the Solent coastline. The project and this survey divided the coastline into 103 numbered sections. Households made on average 133 annual coastal visits to 3.7 different sections of the coastline. On average each section received a total of 1490 annual visits but the number of coastal visits made to different sections was significantly different. The most frequently given activities undertaken during a coastal visit were walking (20% of all activity responses) and enjoying the scenery (20%), followed by being on the beach (11%) and meeting up with friends (11% of all activity responses). Households indicated where they undertook their activity during the coastal visit and for 47% of the visit responses the activity (walking, cycling, enjoying the scenery etc) was undertaken on the sea wall or the river bank. A further 39% of responses by households indicated they venture onto the beach/mudflat and 15% of responses actually took to the water. The majority (52%) of coastal visits by households were made by car with 39% made by foot, 4% by bicycle and 5% by public transport. Of the households which made visits by car, 50% travelled 9.5km or less by road to the section they visited and 90% travelled 29.0km or less to their visited section by road. Of the households who visited specific sections by foot half lived within 1.0km of the section (straight line distance from postcode to nearest point on section) and 90% lived within 4.0km of the visited section. Features that act as a deterrent for some households when selecting a coastal location to visit may also attract other households. For example, a requirement for dogs to be on leads and the presence of dog restrictions is rated as attractive to non dog owning households but as a deterrent by dog owning households. By far the most popular attractive feature when households choose which coastal location to visit was ‘sea views and attractive scenery’ followed by ‘feel safe’, ‘ability to do a range of different walks/routes ‘and the ‘presence of wildlife’. Predictions were derived by fitting formal statistical models to the observed (household survey) data. Specifically these models used observed visitor numbers per section per distance band and analysed these in relation to factors representing distance to section and section characteristics. Different models are presented within the report and separate models were generated for car and foot visitors, with each model showing a declining visitor rate with distance from the section – i.e. the further away people live the fewer visits they make. These models suggest some 52 million visits are made each year, by households within a 30km radius of the coastline between Hurst Castle to Chichester Harbour, including the north shore of the Isle of Wight. The models identify Portsmouth’s seafront (South Parade Pier to Fort Cumberland) as the most heavily visited coastal section, with over 3 million household visits per annum. These predictive visit models will be used alongside the bird models, commissioned separately and subject to a further report, to assess the impacts of disturbance to wintering birds under different housing scenarios. The use of the visitor models and how they will link to the bird models within the next stages of the Solent Disturbance and Mitigation Project are discussed