42 research outputs found

    Are the antiglobalists right? Gains-from-trade without a walrasian auctioneer

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    We examine whether the "fear" of globalisation can be rationalised by economic theory. To do so, we depart from the standard AD/AS (partial) equilibrium model where the coordinational role of the Auctioneer is substituted by an implementation device based on learning (Guesnerie, 1992). By endowing producers with a learning ability to forecast market prices, individual profit-maximizing production decisions become interdependent in a strategic sense (strategic substitutes). Performing basic comparative statics exercises, we show that "competitiveness" matters in a precise sense: as foreign producers gain access to the home market, home producers' ability to forecast market prices is undermined, so being their ability to forecast the profit consequences of their production decisions. When performing a standard open economy exercise in such a framework, we show that the existence of standard efficiency gains - due to the increase in competition (or spatial price stabilization) - is traded-off against coordination upon the welfare enhancing free-trade equilibrium (stabilizing price expectations). Therefore, we identify a new rationale for an exogenous price intervention in open economy targeting coordination, to allow trading countries to fully reap the benefits from trade. We illustrate this point showing that classical measures evaluating ex-ante the desirability of economic integration (net welfare gains) do not always advice integration between two expectationally stable economies.A l'aide de la théorie économique, on examine si la peur du libre-échange peut être rationalisée. Pour ce faire, on substitue l'élément de coordination implicite présent dans le modèle DA/OA de la macroéconomie standard (commissaire priseur "walrasien") par un mécanisme de "concrétisation" de l'équilibre fondé sur l'apprentissage (Guesnerie, 1992). Doués de cette capacité individuelle d'apprentissage, les producteurs vont former des anticipations sur le prix apurant le marché, et de ce fait reconnaître que leurs décisions de production dépendent des décisions de production des autres. Un exercice de statique comparée simple montre que la "compétitivité" est rationnelle dans un sens très précis : dès lors que les producteurs étrangers écoulent leur production dans le marché national, les producteurs nationaux voient leur capacité de prévoir les conséquences en termes de profit de leurs décisions de production diminuée, du fait de leur difficulté accrue de prévoir le prix de marché toute chose égale par ailleurs. Dans ce cadre, un exercice standard d'intégration économique révèle l'existence d'une tension entre les gains à l'échange (stabilité "spatiale" des prix d'autarcie) et la capacité des producteurs à apprendre l'équilibre de l'économie intégrée ("stabilité" de leurs anticipations du prix). C'est ainsi qu'on justifie la pertinence d'une intervention exogène qui, favorisant la coordination, permettrait aux pays matérialiser les gains à l'échange de l'intégration. Ce point est illustré à l'aide d'un exemple où ex-ante, l'évaluation classique des gains à l'ouverture ne "conseille" pas toujours l'intégration entre des économies "stables" à l'autarcie

    Essays on Games of Strategic Substitutes with Incomplete Information

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    This dissertation consists of three individual chapters. The first chapter applies lattice theoretic techniques in order to establish fundamental properties of Bayesian games of strategic substitutes (GSS) when the underlying type space is ordered either in increasing or decreasing first-order stochastic dominance. Existence and uniqueness of equilibria is considered, as well as the question of when such equilibria can be guaranteed to be monotone in type, a property which is used to guarantee monotone comparative statics. The second chapter uses the techniques of the first and combines them with the existing results for strategic complements (GSC) in order to extend the literature on global games under both GSC and GSS. In particular, the model of Carlsson and Van Damme (1993) is extended from 22 games to GSS or GSC involving a finite amount of players, each having a finite action space. Furthermore, the possibility that groups of players receive the same signal is allowed for, a condition which is new to the literature. It is shown that under this condition, the power of the model to resolve the issue of multiplicity is unambiguously increased. The third chapter considers stability of mixed strategy Nash equilibria in GSS. Chapter 1 analyzes Bayesian games of strategic substitutes under general conditions. In particular, when beliefs are order either increasingly or decreasingly by first order stochastic dominance, the existence and uniqueness, monotonicity, and comparative statics in this broad class of games are addressed. Unlike their supermodular counterpart, where the effect of an increase in type augments the strategic effect between own strategy and opponent’s strategy, submodularity produces competing effects when considering optimal responses. Using adaptive dynamics, conditions are given under which such games can be guaranteed to exhibit Bayesian Nash equilibria, and it is shown that in many applications these equilibria will be a profile of monotone strategies. Comparative statics of parametrized games is also analyzed using results from submodular games which are extended to incorporate incomplete information. Several examples are provided. The framework of Chapter 1 is applied to global games in Chapter 2. Global games methods are aimed at resolving issues of multiplicity of equilibria and coordination failure that arise in game theoretic models by relaxing common knowledge assumptions about an underlying parameter. These methods have recently received a lot of attention when the underlying complete information game is a GSC. Little has been done in this direction concerning GSS, however. This chapter complements the existing literature in both cases by extending the global games method developed by Carlsson and Van Damme (1993) to multiple player, multiple action GSS and GSC, using a p-dominance condition as the selection criterion. This approach helps circumvent recent criticisms to global games by relaxing some possibly unnatural assumptions on payoffs and parameters necessary to conduct analysis under current methods. The second part of this chapter generalizes the model by allowing groups of players to receive homogenous signals, which, under certain conditions, strengthens the model’s power of predictability. Chapter 3 analyzes the learning and stability of mixed strategy Nash equilibria in GSS, complementing recent work done in the case of GSC. Mixed strategies in GSS are of particular interest because it is well known that such games need not exhibit pure strategy Nash equilibria. First, a bound on the strategy space which indicate where randomizing behavior may occur in equilibrium is established. Second, it is shows that mixed strategy Nash equilibria are generally unstable under a wide variety of learning rules

    Heterogeneous adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena

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    We study a cobweb-type commodity market where n firms operate and characterised by a strictly monotone demand and supply. The firms are assumed to differ in a key parameter governing price expectations which we suppose to be adaptive. We characterise the unique steady state of the resulting economic dynamics in terms of stability and we study the impact of the number and diversity of firms: to this end we introduce the notions of structural and behavioural degree of instability which prove to be crucial in determining whether stability or instability prevail. We also consider the case of market merging and establish conditions to have stability (or instability) in the aggregated market in terms of the original (structural and behavioural) degrees of instability. We take up the issue of transitional dynamics and speed of convergence when the system is stable and characterise parametric configurations that maximise the speed of convergence. Motivated by the difficulty to actually observe expectations, whereas it is easier to measure some structural features of a given market, such as the relevant demand and supply price elasticities, we take the perspective of an observer (e.g. a policy maker) whose information set includes the structural but not the behavioural degree of instability. We therefore assume the firms - via the parameter which defines their expectations - are sampled independently from a population described by a given probability distribution. In this case the structural degree of instability determines how the number of potentially different firms affects the probability of ending up with a stable outcome. Analytical results are provided alongside numerical evidence.heterogeneous agents, expectations, stability of steady states, market merging, speed of convergence

    Incorporating market effects in decision-support models for environmental policies

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    The economic interrelationships of tourism: a computable general equilibrium analysis

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    This thesis investigates the economic interrelationships that tourism has in the wider economy in the context of a country that is heavily reliant on tourism revenues. More specifically, it seeks to examine the welfare, intersectoral, distributional, competitive, investment and dynamic issues relating to the tourism sector that have been under investigated in both the tourism and trade literature. These issues have been investigated empirically using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The thesis is set out as follows: Chapter 1 sets out the relative position of Spain in terms of its international competitors and defines the tourism sector. It also explains why CGE modelling is felt to be the most suitable approach for modelling the Spanish tourism sector for the purposes of this thesis. It also presents an overview of the planned research. Chapter 2 gives an overview of the structure and key features of the Spanish economy. It discusses the evolution of the tourism sector and how it varies between the different autonomous communities in Spain. The Spanish Tourism Satellite Account is presented and Spanish tourism policy is examined. Chapter 3 reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on CGE modelling and tourism analysis relevant to this thesis. Various types of CGE model are scrutinised and their usefulness assessed. The role of tourism in international trade is considered and the characteristics of the tourism sector that need to be embodied into a CGE model are discussed. Chapter 4 describes the core CGE model used in this thesis and the underlying equations that are associated with it. The central data set used is the Spanish input-output table for 1996. This data set is described and all subsequent input-output tables used in other chapters are amended so as to be consistent with this data set. Closure rules, elasticity parameters, solution methods and calibration methods are also discussed. Chapter 5 presents the results of the experiments carried out with the dynamic Spanish national CGE model. The core model presented in Chapter 4 has been extended to incorporate foreign direct investment and these changes are disclosed in the opening sections. Counterfactuals are designed so as to estimate the impact of foreign direct investment inflows and tourism demand shocks on the Spanish economy. Sensitivity analysis of the key exogenous parameters is also undertaken. Chapter 6 presents the results of the experiments carried out on the static regional CGE model of the regions of Spain. Input-Output tables for four of Spain's autonomous regions were obtained and integrated with the Spanish national table to create a data set which accounts for the four regions analysed and the remainder of the Spanish economy. The model presented in Chapter 4 is adapted to incorporate regional trade flows and structural differences are discussed. Counterfactuals are designed in order to investigate how regional tax policy might affect tourism flows in Spain and how tourism demand impacts on different regions in Spain. Sensitivity analysis of the key exogenous parameters is also undertaken. Chapter 7 presents the results of the experiments of the dynamic CGE model for the Canary Islands. The core model is identical to that presented in Chapter 4, except that it is applied at a sub-national rather than a national level. Counterfactuals are designed so as to take account of the issues affecting a small island economy that is heavily reliant on tourism. As before, sensitivity analysis of the key exogenous parameters is also undertaken. Chapter 8 summarises the findings of this study, highlights possibly policy implications and cites limitations of the research. Suggestions for further research are also highlighted

    The economics of municipal solid waste management in tourism destinations: the case of Mallorca

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    El turismo es una de los sectores que ha mostrado un destacado crecimiento a nivel mundial actualmente. En relación con el estudio de los impactos negativos, la investigación sobre externalidades ha sido objeto de gran interés, sin embargo la relación entre la actividad turística y de los residuos sólidos municipales (RSM) no ha atendida profundamente. La tesis realiza importantes contribuciones en el análisis de tres aspectos de la relación entre turismo y la gestión de RSM. En primer lugar, el análisis cuantitativo del turismo como factor determinante en la generación de RSM. En segundo lugar, los retos del turismo en la gestión de RSM en destinos turísticos, con énfasis en Mallorca. En tercer lugar, el análisis teórico de incentivos a las empresas turísticas para mejorar la gestión de residuos. Finalmente, la tesis abre camino para identificar una serie de cuestiones que deben ser exploradas en futuras investigaciones

    The Emergence of Analysis in the Renaissance and After

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    Paper by Salomon Bochne

    CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY IN ROMANIA

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    The purpose of this paper is to identify the main opportunities and limitations of corporate social responsibility (CSR). The survey was defined with the aim to involve the highest possible number of relevant CSR topics and give the issue a more wholesome perspective. It provides a basis for further comprehension and deeper analyses of specific CSR areas. The conditions determining the success of CSR in Romania have been defined in the paper on the basis of the previously cumulative knowledge as well as the results of various researches. This paper provides knowledge which may be useful in the programs promoting CSR.Corporate social responsibility, Supportive policies, Romania
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