Structured parallel programming for Monte Carlo Tree Search

The thesis is part of a bigger project, the HEPGAME (High Energy Physics Game). The main objective for HEPGAME is the utilization of AI solutions, particularly by using MCTS for simplification of HEP calculations. One of the issues is solving mathematical expressions of interest with millions of terms. These calculations can be solved with the FORM program, which is software for symbolic manipulation. Since these calculations are computationally intensive and take a large amount of time, the FORM program was parallelized to solve them in a reasonable amount of time.Therefore, any new algorithm based on MCTS, should also be parallelized. This requirement was behind the problem statement of the thesis: “How do we design a structured pattern-based parallel programming approach for efficient parallelism of MCTS for both multi-core and manycore shared-memory machines?”.To answer this question, the thesis approached the MCTS parallelization problem in three levels: (1) implementation level, (2) data structure level, and (3) algorithm level.In the implementation level, we proposed task-level parallelization over thread-level parallelization. Task-level parallelization provides us with efficient parallelism for MCTS to utilize cores on both multi-core and manycore machines.In the data structure level, we presented a lock-free data structure that guarantees the correctness. A lock-free data structure (1) removes the synchronization overhead when a parallel program needs many tasks to feed its cores and (2) improves both performance and scalability.In the algorithm level, we first explained how to use pipeline pattern for parallelization of MCTS to overcome search overhead. Then, through a step by step approach, we were able to propose and detail the structured parallel programming approach for Monte Carlo Tree Search.Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

The SM and NLO multileg working group: Summary report

This report summarizes the activities of the SM and NLO Multileg Working Group of the Workshop "Physics at TeV Colliders", Les Houches, France 8-26 June, 2009.Comment: 169 pages, Report of the SM and NLO Multileg Working Group for the Workshop "Physics at TeV Colliders", Les Houches, France 8-26 June, 200

The X-Ray Halo Scaling Relations of Supermassive Black Holes

We carry out a comprehensive Bayesian correlation analysis between hot halos and direct masses of supermassive black holes (SMBHs), by retrieving the X-ray plasma properties (temperature, luminosity, density, pressure, and masses) over galactic to cluster scales for 85 diverse systems. We find new key scalings, with the tightest relation being M-Tx, followed by M-Lx. The tighter scatter (down to 0.2 dex) and stronger correlation coefficient of all the X-ray halo scalings compared with the optical counterparts (as the M-se) suggest that plasma halos play a more central role than stars in tracing and growing SMBHs (especially those that are ultramassive). Moreover, M correlates better with the gas mass than dark matter mass. We show the important role of the environment, morphology, and relic galaxies/coronae, as well as the main departures from virialization/self-similarity via the optical/X-ray fundamental planes. We test the three major channels for SMBH growth: hot/Bondi-like models have inconsistent anticorrelation with X-ray halos and too low feeding; cosmological simulations find SMBH mergers as subdominant over most of cosmic time and too rare to induce a central-limit-theorem effect; the scalings are consistent with chaotic cold accretion, the rain of matter condensing out of the turbulent X-ray halos that sustains a long-term self-regulated feedback loop. The new correlations are major observational constraints for models of SMBH feeding/feedback in galaxies, groups, and clusters (e.g., to test cosmological hydrodynamical simulations), and enable the study of SMBHs not only through X-rays, but also via the Sunyaev-Zel dovich effect (Compton parameter), lensing (total masses), and cosmology (gas fractions)

Partitioning Abiotic and Biotic Contributions to Community Variation

It is well known that both environmental factors and species interactions structure ecological com- munities. To study community composition responses to environmental gradients, ordination and regression techniques are typically employed; however, for studying species interactions, methods primarily rely on analyzing patterns of presence/absence. Each of these types of analyses are carried out independently because there is a lack of unified statistical methods for simultaneous analysis of biotic and abiotic factors influencing community composition. This thesis presents a unified method that enables the removal of environmentally explained variation from species responses so that ap- parent species interactions are not masked or augmented by the abiotic responses, thus partitioning the abiotic/biotic factors.To achieve a unified method, first, species responses to environmental gradients are removed via a multivariate regression procedure. Second, the residual responses, void of environmentally explained variation, are tested for species interactions using a null model. Third, communities identified with significant interactions are summarized by the average pairwise covariation among the member species. The method can be used to test hypotheses about species interactions when environmental gradients are present and it may be used to calculate percentages of variation explained due to abiotic, biotic and unexplained factors. Via a sensitivity analysis, I demonstrate that sufficient detection (95%) and false positive rates (5%) can be achieved under particular site-species ratios, number of environmental gradients, and covariation-to-noise ratios. My method can guarantee a sufficient average false positive rate (5%) for communities with > 60 samples, up to 500 species and influenced by up to 4 environmental gradients

Antecipação na tomada de decisão com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza

Orientador: Fernando José Von ZubenTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: A presença de incerteza em resultados futuros pode levar a indecisões em processos de escolha, especialmente ao elicitar as importâncias relativas de múltiplos critérios de decisão e de desempenhos de curto vs. longo prazo. Algumas decisões, no entanto, devem ser tomadas sob informação incompleta, o que pode resultar em ações precipitadas com consequências imprevisíveis. Quando uma solução deve ser selecionada sob vários pontos de vista conflitantes para operar em ambientes ruidosos e variantes no tempo, implementar alternativas provisórias flexíveis pode ser fundamental para contornar a falta de informação completa, mantendo opções futuras em aberto. A engenharia antecipatória pode então ser considerada como a estratégia de conceber soluções flexíveis as quais permitem aos tomadores de decisão responder de forma robusta a cenários imprevisíveis. Essa estratégia pode, assim, mitigar os riscos de, sem intenção, se comprometer fortemente a alternativas incertas, ao mesmo tempo em que aumenta a adaptabilidade às mudanças futuras. Nesta tese, os papéis da antecipação e da flexibilidade na automação de processos de tomada de decisão sequencial com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza é investigado. O dilema de atribuir importâncias relativas aos critérios de decisão e a recompensas imediatas sob informação incompleta é então tratado pela antecipação autônoma de decisões flexíveis capazes de preservar ao máximo a diversidade de escolhas futuras. Uma metodologia de aprendizagem antecipatória on-line é então proposta para melhorar a variedade e qualidade dos conjuntos futuros de soluções de trade-off. Esse objetivo é alcançado por meio da previsão de conjuntos de máximo hipervolume esperado, para a qual as capacidades de antecipação de metaheurísticas multi-objetivo são incrementadas com rastreamento bayesiano em ambos os espaços de busca e dos objetivos. A metodologia foi aplicada para a obtenção de decisões de investimento, as quais levaram a melhoras significativas do hipervolume futuro de conjuntos de carteiras financeiras de trade-off avaliadas com dados de ações fora da amostra de treino, quando comparada a uma estratégia míope. Além disso, a tomada de decisões flexíveis para o rebalanceamento de carteiras foi confirmada como uma estratégia significativamente melhor do que a de escolher aleatoriamente uma decisão de investimento a partir da fronteira estocástica eficiente evoluída, em todos os mercados artificiais e reais testados. Finalmente, os resultados sugerem que a antecipação de opções flexíveis levou a composições de carteiras que se mostraram significativamente correlacionadas com as melhorias observadas no hipervolume futuro esperado, avaliado com dados fora das amostras de treinoAbstract: The presence of uncertainty in future outcomes can lead to indecision in choice processes, especially when eliciting the relative importances of multiple decision criteria and of long-term vs. near-term performance. Some decisions, however, must be taken under incomplete information, what may result in precipitated actions with unforeseen consequences. When a solution must be selected under multiple conflicting views for operating in time-varying and noisy environments, implementing flexible provisional alternatives can be critical to circumvent the lack of complete information by keeping future options open. Anticipatory engineering can be then regarded as the strategy of designing flexible solutions that enable decision makers to respond robustly to unpredictable scenarios. This strategy can thus mitigate the risks of strong unintended commitments to uncertain alternatives, while increasing adaptability to future changes. In this thesis, the roles of anticipation and of flexibility on automating sequential multiple criteria decision-making processes under uncertainty are investigated. The dilemma of assigning relative importances to decision criteria and to immediate rewards under incomplete information is then handled by autonomously anticipating flexible decisions predicted to maximally preserve diversity of future choices. An online anticipatory learning methodology is then proposed for improving the range and quality of future trade-off solution sets. This goal is achieved by predicting maximal expected hypervolume sets, for which the anticipation capabilities of multi-objective metaheuristics are augmented with Bayesian tracking in both the objective and search spaces. The methodology has been applied for obtaining investment decisions that are shown to significantly improve the future hypervolume of trade-off financial portfolios for out-of-sample stock data, when compared to a myopic strategy. Moreover, implementing flexible portfolio rebalancing decisions was confirmed as a significantly better strategy than to randomly choosing an investment decision from the evolved stochastic efficient frontier in all tested artificial and real-world markets. Finally, the results suggest that anticipating flexible choices has lead to portfolio compositions that are significantly correlated with the observed improvements in out-of-sample future expected hypervolumeDoutoradoEngenharia de ComputaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétric