Revealing the time lag between slope stability and reservoir water fluctuation from InSAR observations and wavelet tools— a case study in Maoergai Reservoir (China)

Reservoir water fluctuation in supply and storage cycle have strong triggering effects on landslides on both sides of reservoir banks. Early identification of reservoir landslides and revealing the relationship between slope stability and the triggering factors including reservoir level and rainfall, are of great significance in further protecting nearby residents’ lives and properties. In this paper, based on the small baseline subset time series method (SBAS-InSAR), the potential landslides with active displacements in the river bank of Maoergai hydropower station in Heishui County from 2018 to 2020 were monitored with Sentinel-1 data. As a result, a total of 20 unstable slopes were detected. Subsequently, it was found through a gray correlation analysis that the fluctuation of the reservoir water level is the main triggering factor for the displacement on unstable slopes. This paper applied wavelet tools to quantify the time lag between slope stability and reservoir water fluctuation, revealing that the displacement exhibits a seasonal trend, whose high-frequency signal displacement has an interannual period (1 year). Based on the Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) analysis, under the interannual scale of one year, the reservoir water fluctuation and nonlinear displacement show a clear common power in wavelet. Additionally, a time lag of 65–120 days between slope stability and reservoir water fluctuations has been found, indicating that the non-linear displacements were behind the water level changes. Among the factors affecting the time lag, the elevation of the points and their distance to the bank shore show Pearson’s correlation coefficients of 0.69 and 0.70, respectively. The observed time lag and correlations could be related to the gradual saturation/drainage processes of the slope and the drainage path. This paper demonstrates the technical support to quantitatively reveal the time lag between slope stability and reservoir water fluctuation by InSAR and wavelet tools, providing strong support for the analysis of the mechanisms of landslides in Maoergai reservoir area.The work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41801391), ESA-MOST China DRAGON-5 project (ref. 59339) and the State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection Independent Research Project (SKLGP2020Z012) and Sichuan Science Foundation for Outstanding Youth (23NSFJQ0167)

Investigating slow-moving landslides in the Zhouqu region of China using InSAR time series

In the Zhouqu region (Gansu, China), landslide distribution and activity exploits geological weaknesses in the fault-controlled belt of low-grade metamorphic rocks of the Bailong valley and severely impacts lives and livelihoods in this region. Landslides reactivated by the Wenchuan 2008 earthquake and debris flows triggered by rainfall, such as the 2010 Zhouqu debris flow, have caused more than 1700 casualties and estimated economic losses of some US$0.4 billion. Earthflows presently cover some 79% of the total landslide area and have exerted a strong influence on landscape dynamics and evolution in this region. In this study, we use multi-temporal Advanced Land Observing Satellite and Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (ALOS PALSAR) data and time series interferometric synthetic aperture radar to investigate slow-moving landslides in a mountainous region with steep topography for the period December 2007–August 2010 using the Small Baseline Subsets (SBAS) technique. This enabled the identification of 11 active earthflows, 19 active landslides with deformation rates exceeding 100 mm/year and 20 new instabilities added into the pre-existing landslide inventory map. The activity of these earthflows and landslides exhibits seasonal variations and accelerated deformation following the Wenchuan earthquake. Time series analysis of the Suoertou earthflow reveals that seasonal velocity changes are characterized by comparatively rapid acceleration and gradual deceleration with distinct kinematic zones with different mean velocities, although velocity changes appear to occur synchronously along the landslide body over seasonal timescales. The observations suggest that the post-seismic effects (acceleration period) on landslide deformation last some 6–7 months

The June 2020 Aniangzhai landslide in Sichuan Province, Southwest China: slope instability analysis from radar and optical satellite remote sensing data

A large, deep-seated ancient landslide was partially reactivated on 17 June 2020 close to the Aniangzhai village of Danba County in Sichuan Province of Southwest China. It was initiated by undercutting of the toe of this landslide resulting from increased discharge of the Xiaojinchuan River caused by the failure of a landslide dam, which had been created by the debris flow originating from the Meilong valley. As a result, 12 townships in the downstream area were endangered leading to the evacuation of more than 20000 people. This study investigated the Aniangzhai landslide area by optical and radar satellite remote sensing techniques. A horizontal displacement map produced using cross-correlation of high-resolution optical images from Planet shows a maximum horizontal motion of approximately 15 meters for the slope failure between the two acquisitions. The undercutting effects on the toe of the landslide are clearly revealed by exploiting optical data and field surveys, indicating the direct influence of the overflow from the landslide dam and water release from a nearby hydropower station on the toe erosion. Pre-disaster instability analysis using a stack of SAR data from Sentinel-1 between 2014 and 2020 suggests that the Aniangzhai landslide has long been active before the failure, with the largest annual LOS deformation rate more than 50 mm/yr. The 3-year wet period that followed a relative drought year in 2016 resulted in a 14% higher average velocity in 2018–2020, in comparison to the rate in 2014–2017. A detailed analysis of slope surface kinematics in different parts of the landslide indicates that temporal changes in precipitation are mainly correlated with kinematics of motion at the head part of the failure body, where an accelerated creep is observed since spring 2020 before the large failure. Overall, this study provides an example of how full exploitation of optical and radar satellite remote sensing data can be used for a comprehensive analysis of destabilization and reactivation of an ancient landslide in response to a complex cascading event chain in the transition zone between the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin. © 2021, The Author(s)

Characterizing slope instability kinematics by integrating multi-sensor satellite remote sensing observations

Over the past few decades, the occurrence and intensity of geological hazards, such as landslides, have substantially risen due to various factors, including global climate change, seismic events, rapid urbanization and other anthropogenic activities. Landslide disasters pose a significant risk in both urban and rural areas, resulting in fatalities, infrastructure damages, and economic losses. Nevertheless, conventional ground-based monitoring techniques are often costly, time-consuming, and require considerable resources. Moreover, some landslide incidents occur in remote or hazardous locations, making ground-based observation and field investigation challenging or even impossible. Fortunately, the advancements in spaceborne remote sensing technology have led to the availability of large-scale and high-quality imagery, which can be utilized for various landslide-related applications, including identification, monitoring, analysis, and prediction. This efficient and cost-effective technology allows for remote monitoring and assessment of landslide risks and can significantly contribute to disaster management and mitigation efforts. Consequently, spaceborne remote sensing techniques have become vital for geohazard management in many countries, benefiting society by providing reliable downstream services. However, substantial effort is required to ensure that such benefits are provided. For establishing long-term data archives and reliable analyses, it is essential to maintain consistent and continued use of multi-sensor spaceborne remote sensing techniques. This will enable a more thorough understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for slope instabilities, leading to better decision-making and development of effective mitigation strategies. Ultimately, this can reduce the impact of landslide hazards on the general public. The present dissertation contributes to this effort from the following perspectives: 1. To obtain a comprehensive understanding of spaceborne remote sensing techniques for landslide monitoring, we integrated multi-sensor methods to monitor the entire life cycle of landslide dynamics. We aimed to comprehend the landslide evolution under complex cascading events by utilizing various spaceborne remote sensing techniques, e.g., the precursory deformation before catastrophic failure, co-failure procedures, and post-failure evolution of slope instability. 2. To address the discrepancies between spaceborne optical and radar imagery, we present a methodology that models four-dimensional (4D) post-failure landslide kinematics using a decaying mathematical model. This approach enables us to represent the stress relaxation for the landslide body dynamics after failure. By employing this methodology, we can overcome the weaknesses of the individual sensor in spaceborne optical and radar imaging. 3. We assessed the effectiveness of a newly designed small dihedral corner reflector for landslide monitoring. The reflector is compatible with both ascending and descending satellite orbits, while it is also suitable for applications with both high-resolution and medium-resolution satellite imagery. Furthermore, although its echoes are not as strong as those of conventional reflectors, the cost of the newly designed reflectors is reduced, with more manageable installation and maintenance. To overcome this limitation, we propose a specific selection strategy based on a probability model to identify the reflectors in satellite images

Modelling co- and post-seismic displacements revealed by InSAR, and their implications for fault behaviour

The ultimate goal of seismology is to estimate the timing, magnitude and potential spatial extent of future seismic events along pre-existing faults. Based on the rate-state friction law, several theoretical physical earthquake models have been proposed towards this goal. Tectonic loading rate and frictional properties of faults are required in these models. Modern geodetic observations, e.g. GPS and InSAR, have provided unprecedented near-field observations following large earthquakes. In theory, according to the frictional rate and state asperity earthquake model, velocity-weakening regions holding seismic motions on faults should be separated with velocity-strengthening regions within which faults slip only aseismically. However, early afterslip following the 2011 MW 9.1 Tohoku-Oki earthquake revealed from GPS measurements was largely overlaid on the historical rupture zones, which challenged the velocity weakening asperity model. Therefore, the performance of the laboratory based friction law in the natural events needs further investigation, and the factors that may affect the estimates of slip models through geodetic modelling should also be discussed systematically. In this thesis, several moderate-strong events were investigated in order to address this important issue. The best-fit co- and post-seismic slip models following the 2009 MW 6.3 Haixi, Qinghai thrust-slip earthquake determined by InSAR deformation time-series suggest that the maximum afterslip is concentrated in the same area as the coseismic slip model, which is similar to the patterns observed in the 2011 Japan earthquake. In this case, complex geometric asperity may play a vital role in the coseismic nucleation and postseismic faulting. The major early afterslip after the 2011 MW 7.1 Van mainshock, which was revealed by one COSMO-SkyMed postseismic interferogram, is found just above the coseismic slip pattern. In this event, a postseismic modelling that did not allow slip across the coseismic asperity was also tested, suggesting that the slip model without slip in the asperities can explain the postseismic observations as well as the afterslip model without constraints on slip in the asperities. In the 2011 MW 9.1 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, a joint inversion with the GRACE coseismic gravity changes and inland coseismic GPS observations was conducted to re-investigate the coseismic slip model of the mainshock. A comparison of slip models from these different datasets suggests that significant variations of slip models can be observed, particularly the locations of the maximum slips. The joint slip model shows that the maximum slip of ~42 m appears near the seafloor surface close to the Japan Trench. Meanwhile, the accumulative afterslip patterns (slip >2 m) determined in previous studies appear in spatial correlation with the Coulomb stress changes generated using the joint slip model. As a strike-slip faulting event, the 2011 MW 6.8 Yushu earthquake was also investigated through co- and post-seismic modelling with more SAR data than was used in previous study. Best slip models suggest that the major afterslip is concentrated in shallow parts of the faults and between the two major coseismic slip patterns, suggesting that the performance of the rate and state frictional asperity model is appropriate in this event. Other postseismic physical mechanisms, pore-elastic rebound and viscoelastic relaxation have also been examined, which cannot significantly affect the estimate of the shallow afterslip model in this study. It is believed that the shallow afterslip predominantly controlled the postseismic behaviour after the mainshock in this case. In comparison to another 21 earthquakes investigated using geodetic data from other studies, complementary spatial extents between co- and post-seismic slip models can be identified. The 2009 MW 6.3 Qinghai earthquake is an exceptional case, in which the faulting behaviours might be dominated by the fault structure (e.g. fault bending). In conclusion, the major contributions from this thesis include: 1) the friction law gives a first order fit in most of natural events examined in this thesis; 2) geometric asperities may play an important role in faulting during earthquake cycles; 3) significant uncertainties in co- and post-seismic slip models can appreciably bias the estimation of fault frictional properties; 4) new insights derived from each earthquake regarding their fault structures and complex faulting behaviours have been observed in this thesis; and (5) a novel package for geodetic earthquake modelling has been developed, which can handle multiple datasets including InSAR, GPS and land/space based gravity changes

Book of short Abstracts of the 11th International Symposium on Digital Earth

The Booklet is a collection of accepted short abstracts of the ISDE11 Symposium

Relations entre propriétés des failles et propriétés des forts séismes

I examine the relations between the properties of long-term geological faults and the properties of the large earthquakes these faults produce. I have gathered available seismological information on large historical earthquakes worldwide and mapped in detail, on satellite images, both the long-term fault and the rupture traces. The combined analysis of the data shows that: i) long-term faults have a number of generic properties (arrangement of overall fault networks, lateral segmentation of fault traces, form of cumulative slip distribution, etc); ii) large earthquakes also have generic properties (similarity of envelope shape of coseismic slip-length profiles, of decrease in rupture width along rupture length, of number of broken segments, of stress drop on broken segments, of relative distance between hypocenter and zone of maximum slip, etc); iii) the structural maturity of the faults is the tectonic property most impacting the behavior of large earthquakes. The maturity likely acts in reducing both the static friction and the geometric complexity of the fault plane. It partly governs the location of the earthquake initiation, the location and amplitude of the maximum coseismic slip, the direction of the coseismic slip decrease, the rupture propagation efficiency and speed, the number of major fault segments that are broken, and hence the rupture length and its overall stress drop. To understand the physics of earthquakes, it thus seems necessary to analyze jointly the tectonic properties of the broken faults and the seismological properties of the earthquakes.J’examine les relations entre propriétés des failles géologiques long-termes et propriétés des forts séismes que produisent ces failles. J’ai compilé les données sismologiques disponibles sur les grands séismes historiques mondiaux, et cartographié, sur images satellitaires, les failles long-termes rompues par ces séismes et les traces des ruptures. L’analyse combinée des données montre que : i) les failles long-termes ont certaines propriétés génériques (organisation des réseaux, segmentation latérale, forme de distribution du glissement cumulé, etc) ; ii) les forts séismes ont également des propriétés communes (similarité de distribution du glissement cosismique, du nombre de segments rompus, de la chute de contrainte sur chaque segment majeur rompu, de la distance relative entre hypocentre et zone de glissement maximum, etc) ; iii) la maturité structurale des failles est la propriété tectonique qui impacte le plus le comportement des forts séismes. Il est probable que cette maturité diminue la friction statique et la complexité géométrique du plan de faille. Elle agit sur la localisation de la zone d’initiation du séisme, sur la localisation et l’amplitude maximum du glissement cosismique, sur la direction de décroissance de ce glissement, sur la « capacité » de la rupture à se propager et donc sur sa vitesse de propagation. Elle dicte le nombre de segments majeurs qui peuvent être rompus, et par conséquent, elle contrôle la longueur totale et la chute de contrainte globale de la rupture. Pour comprendre la physique des forts séismes, il apparaît donc indispensable d’analyser conjointement les propriétés des failles rompues et les propriétés des séismes produits