Biological Terrorism, Emerging Diseases, and National Security

Examines the extent to which bioterrorist attacks have proven or may prove difficult to distinguish from outbreaks of emerging diseases. Makes recommendations for how the U.S. could better prepare to meet the threat of biological terrorism

On a Generic Security Game Model

To protect the systems exposed to the Internet against attacks, a security system with the capability to engage with the attacker is needed. There have been attempts to model the engagement/interactions between users, both benign and malicious, and network administrators as games. Building on such works, we present a game model which is generic enough to capture various modes of such interactions. The model facilitates stochastic games with imperfect information. The information is imperfect due to erroneous sensors leading to incorrect perception of the current state by the players. To model this error in perception distributed over other multiple states, we use Euclidean distances between the outputs of the sensors. We build a 5-state game to represent the interaction of the administrator with the user. The states correspond to 1) the user being out of the system in the Internet, and after logging in to the system; 2) having low privileges; 3) having high privileges; 4) when he successfully attacks and 5) gets trapped in a honeypot by the administrator. Each state has its own action set. We present the game with a distinct perceived action set corresponding to each distinct information set of these states. The model facilitates stochastic games with imperfect information. The imperfect information is due to erroneous sensors leading to incorrect perception of the current state by the players. To model this error in perception distributed over the states, we use Euclidean distances between outputs of the sensors. A numerical simulation of an example game is presented to show the evaluation of rewards to the players and the preferred strategies. We also present the conditions for formulating the strategies when dealing with more than one attacker and making collaborations.Comment: 31 page

Modeling the Human Decision Making Process in Maritime Interdiction Using Conceptual Blending Theory

Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) papers and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation (BRIMS)This paper describes a model of the human decision-making process in maritime interdiction tactical operation using conceptual blending theory (CBT) and software blending mechanism. CBT explains how humans think using blending operations on mental spaces. This paper uses CBT to model Boyd’s Observation-Orientation- Decision-Act Loop Theory, a mental process used by military commanders to make decisions. The software blending mechanism is implemented using the Naval Postgraduate School’s first-generation Software Blending library. Military expert’s experiences were captured using a similar strategy implemented in the threat assessment model created by Liebhaber and Feher. Probability Estimates of Event (PEoE) is used to represent the significant of each possible tactic used by potential threats. Several PEoE are used to represent the mental patterns for recognizing a threat situation. Finally, decisions are derived using linear assignment, an optimality approach that considers threat attack probability, goals and interdiction resource effectiveness. The model was tested in a simulated maritime threat environment in order to evaluate its ability to coordinate interdictions by patrol crafts. These test results were reviewed by experienced naval warfare officers who gave feedback on the quality of the software generated decisions

Shining a Light on Policing of the Dark Web: An analysis of UK investigatory Powers

The dark web and the proliferation of criminals who have exploited its cryptographic protocols to commit crimes anonymously has created major challenges for law enforcement around the world. Traditional policing techniques have required amendment and new techniques have been developed to break the dark web’s use of encryption. As with all new technology, the law has been slow to catch up and police have historically needed to use legislation which was not designed with the available technology in mind. This paper discusses the tools and techniques police use to investigate and prosecute criminals operating on the dark web in the UK and the legal framework in which they are deployed. There are two specific areas which are examined in depth: the use of covert policing and hacking tools, known in the UK as equipment interference. The operation of these investigatory methods within the context of dark web investigations has not previously been considered in UK literature, although this has received greater analysis in the United States and Australia. The effectiveness of UK investigatory powers in the investigation of crimes committed on the dark web are analysed and recommendations are made in relation to both the law and the relevant Codes of Practice. The article concludes that whilst the UK has recently introduced legislation which adequately sets out the powers police can use during online covert operations and when hacking, the Codes of Practice need to specifically address the role these investigative tools play in dark web investigations. Highlighted as areas of particular concern are the risks of jurisdiction forum shopping and hacking overseas. Recommendations are made for reform of the Investigatory Powers Act 2016 to ensure clarity as to when equipment interference can be used to search equipment when the location of that equipment is unknown

An Architectural Approach to Ensuring Consistency in Hierarchical Execution

Hierarchical task decomposition is a method used in many agent systems to organize agent knowledge. This work shows how the combination of a hierarchy and persistent assertions of knowledge can lead to difficulty in maintaining logical consistency in asserted knowledge. We explore the problematic consequences of persistent assumptions in the reasoning process and introduce novel potential solutions. Having implemented one of the possible solutions, Dynamic Hierarchical Justification, its effectiveness is demonstrated with an empirical analysis