Development of emergency response systems by intelligent and integrated approaches for marine oil spill accidents

Oil products play a pervasive role in modern society as one of the dominant energy fuel sources. Marine activities related to oil extraction and transportation play a vital role in resource supply. However, marine oil spills occur due to such human activities or harsh environmental factors. The emergency accidents of spills cause negative impacts on the marine environment, human health, and economic loss. The responses to marine oil spills, especially large-scale spills, are relatively challenging and inefficient due to changing environmental conditions, limited response resources, various unknown or uncertain factors and complex resource allocation processes. The development of previous research mainly focused on single process simulation, prediction, or optimization (e.g., oil trajectory, weathering, or cleanup optimization). There is still a lack of research on comprehensive and integrated emergency responses considering multiple types of simulations, types of resource allocations, stages of accident occurrence to response, and criteria for system optimizations. Optimization algorithms are an important part of system optimization and decision-making. Their performance directly affacts the quality of emergency response systems and operations. Thus, how to improve efficiency of emergency response systems becomes urgent and essential for marine oil spill management. The power and potential of integrating intelligent-based modeling of dynamic processes and system optimization have been recognized to better support oil spill responders with more efficient response decisions and planning tools. Meanwhile, response decision-making combined with human factor analysis can help quantitatively evaluate the impacts of multiple causal factors on the overall processes and operational performance after an accident. To address the challenges and gaps, this dissertation research focused on the development and improvement of new emergency response systems and their applications for marine oil spill response in the following aspects: 1) Realization of coupling dynamic simulation and system optimization for marine oil spill responses - The developed Simulation-Based Multi-Agent Particle Swarm Optimization (SA-PSO) modeling investigated the capacity of agent-based modeling on dynamic simulation of spill fate and response, particle swarm optimization on response allocation with minimal time and multi-agent system on information sharing. 2) Investigation of multi-type resource allocation under a complex simulation condition and improvement of optimization performance - The improved emergency response system was achieved by dynamic resource transportation, oil weathering and response simulations and resource allocation optimization. The enhanced particle swarm optimization (ME-PSO) algorithm performed outstanding convergence performance and low computation cost characteristics integrating multi-agent theory (MA) and evolutionary population dynamics (EPD). 3) Analysis and evaluation of influencing factors of multiple stages of spill accidents based on human factors/errors and multi-criteria decision making - The developed human factors analysis and classification system for marine oil spill accidents (HFACS-OS) framework qualitatively evaluated the influence of various factors and errors associated with the multiple operational stages considered for oil spill preparedness and response (e.g., oil spill occurrence, spill monitoring, decision making/contingency planning, and spill response). The framework was further coupled with quantitative data analysis by Fuzzy-based Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Idea Solution (Fuzzy-TOPSIS) to enhance decision-making during response operations under multiple criteria. 4) Development of a multi-criteria emergency response system with the enhanced optimization algorithm, multi-mode resource transportation and allocation and a more complex and realistic simulation modelling - The developed multi-criteria emergency response system (MC-ERS) system integrated dynamic process simulations and weighted multi-criteria system optimization. Total response time, response cost and environmental impacts were regarded as multiple optimization goals. An improved weighted sum optimization function was developed to unify the scaling and proportion of different goals. A comparative PSO was also developed with various algorithm-improving methods and the best-performing inertia weight function. The proposed emergency response approaches in studies were examined by oil spill case studies related to the North Atlantic Ocean and Canada circumstances to analyze the modelling performance and evaluate their practicality and applicability. The developed optimization algorithms were tested by benchmarked functions, other optimization algorithms, and an oil spill case. The developed emergency response systems and the contained simulation and optimization algorithms showed the strong capability for decision-making and emergency responses by recommending optimal resource management or evaluations of essential factors. This research was expected to provide time-efficient, and cost-saving emergency response management approaches for handling and managing marine oil spills. The research also improved our knowledge of the significance of human factors/errors to oil spill accidents and response operations and provided improved support tools for decision making. The dissertation research helped fill some important gaps in emergency response research and management practice, especially in marine oil spill response, through an innovative integration of dynamic simulation, resource optimization, human factor analysis, and artificial intelligence methods. The research outcomes can also provide methodological support and valuable references for other fields that require timely and effective decisions, system optimizations, process controls, planning and designs under complicated conditions, uncertainties, and interactions

The doctoral research abstracts Vol:1 2012 / Institute of Graduate Studies, UiTM

Foreword: Congratulations to Institute of Graduate Studies on the 1st issue of The Doctoral Research Abstracts. This inaugural issue consists of 40 abstracts from our PhD graduands receiving their scrolls in the UiTM’s 76th Convocation. This convocation is very significant especially for UiTM since we are celebrating the success of 40 PhD graduands from 12 of the university’s 25 faculties – the largest number ever conferred at any one time. To the 40 doctorates, I would like it to be known that you have most certainly done UiTM proud by journeying through the scholastic path with its endless challenges and impediments, and by persevering right till the very end. Let it remain in your thoughts and hearts that knowledge is Godgiven, and for those of us who have some to spare, never fear to share with those around us, and never be sparing in serving the community and the country, in the name of the Almighty. Dato’ Prof Ir Dr Sahol Hamid Bin Abu Bakar , FASc Vice Chancellor Universiti Teknologi MAR

Intelligent Business Process Optimization for the Service Industry

The company\u27s sustainable competitive advantage derives from its capacity to create value for customers and to adapt the operational practices to changing situations. Business processes are the heart of each company. Therefore process excellence has become a key issue. This book introduces a novel approach focusing on the autonomous optimization of business processes by applying sophisticated machine learning techniques such as Relational Reinforcement Learning and Particle Swarm Optimization

Intelligent Business Process Optimization for the Service Industry

The company's sustainable competitive advantage derives from its capacity to create value for customers and to adapt the operational practices to changing situations. Business processes are the heart of each company. Therefore process excellence has become a key issue. This book introduces a novel approach focusing on the autonomous optimization of business processes by applying sophisticated machine learning techniques such as Relational Reinforcement Learning and Particle Swarm Optimization

Multi-Objective and Multi-Attribute Optimisation for Sustainable Development Decision Aiding

Optimization is considered as a decision-making process for getting the most out of available resources for the best attainable results. Many real-world problems are multi-objective or multi-attribute problems that naturally involve several competing objectives that need to be optimized simultaneously, while respecting some constraints or involving selection among feasible discrete alternatives. In this Reprint of the Special Issue, 19 research papers co-authored by 88 researchers from 14 different countries explore aspects of multi-objective or multi-attribute modeling and optimization in crisp or uncertain environments by suggesting multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) and multi-objective decision-making (MODM) approaches. The papers elaborate upon the approaches of state-of-the-art case studies in selected areas of applications related to sustainable development decision aiding in engineering and management, including construction, transportation, infrastructure development, production, and organization management

A dynamic scheduling model for construction enterprises

The vast majority of researches in the scheduling context focused on finding optimal or near-optimal predictive schedules under different scheduling problem characteristics. In the construction industry, predictive schedules are often produced in advance in order to direct construction operations and to support other planning activities. However, construction projects operate in dynamic environments subject to various real-time events, which usually disrupt the predictive optimal schedules, leading to schedules neither feasible nor optimal. Accordingly, the development of a dynamic scheduling model which can accommodate these real-time events would be of great importance for the successful implementation of construction scheduling systems. This research sought to develop a dynamic scheduling based solution which can be practically used for real time analysis and scheduling of construction projects, in addition to resources optimization for construction enterprises. The literature reviews for scheduling, dynamic scheduling, and optimization showed that despite the numerous researches presented and application performed in the dynamic scheduling field within manufacturing and other industries, there was dearth in dynamic scheduling literature in relation to the construction industry. The research followed two main interacting research paths, a path related to the development of the practical solution, and another path related to the core model development. The aim of the first path (or the proposed practical solution path) was to develop a computer-based dynamic scheduling framework which can be used in practical applications within the construction industry. Following the scheduling literature review, the construction project management community s opinions about the problem under study and the user requirements for the proposed solution were collected from 364 construction project management practitioners from 52 countries via a questionnaire survey and were used to form the basis for the functional specifications of a dynamic scheduling framework. The framework was in the form of a software tool fully integrated with current planning/scheduling practices with all core modelling which can support the integration of the dynamic scheduling processes to the current planning/scheduling process with minimal experience requirement from users about optimization. The second research path, or the dynamic scheduling core model development path, started with the development of a mathematical model based on the scheduling models in literature, with several extensions according to the practical considerations related to the construction industry, as investigated in the questionnaire survey. Scheduling problems are complex from operational research perspective; so, for the proposed solution to be functional in optimizing construction schedules, an optimization algorithm was developed to suit the problem's characteristics and to be used as part of the dynamic scheduling model's core. The developed algorithm contained few contributions to the scheduling context (such as schedule justification heuristics, and rectification to schedule generation schemes), as well as suggested modifications to the formulation and process of the adopted optimization technique (particle swarm optimization) leading to considerable improvement to this techniques outputs with respect to schedules quality. After the completion of the model development path, the first research path was concluded by combining the gathered solution's functional specifications and the developed dynamic scheduling model into a software tool, which was developed to verify & validate the proposed model s functionalities and the overall solution s practicality and scalability. The verification process started with an extensive testing of the model s static functionality using several well recognized scheduling problem sets available in literature, and the results showed that the developed algorithm can be ranked as one of the best state-of-the-art algorithms for solving resource-constrained project scheduling problems. To verify the software tool and the dynamic features of the developed model (or the formulation of data transfers from one optimization stage to the next), a case study was implemented on a construction entity in the Arabian Gulf area, having a mega project under construction, with all aspects to resemble an enterprise structure. The case study results showed that the proposed solution reasonably performed under large scale practical application (where all optimization targets were met in reasonable time) for all designed schedule preparation processes (baseline, progress updates, look-ahead schedules, and what-if schedules). Finally, to confirm and validate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed solution, the solution's framework and the verification results were presented to field experts, and their opinions were collected through validation forms. The feedbacks received were very positive, where field experts/practitioners confirmed that the proposed solution achieved the main functionalities as designed in the solution s framework, and performed efficiently under the complexity of the applied case study

Agent-based modeling for environmental management. Case study: virus dynamics affecting Norwegian fish farming in fjords

Background: Norwegian fish-farming industry is an important industry, rapidly growing, and facing significant challenges such as the spread of pathogens1, trade-off between locations, fish production and health. There is a need for research, i.e. the development of theories (models), methods, techniques and tools for analysis, prediction and management, i.e. strategy development, policy design and decision making, to facilitate a sustainable industry. Loss due to the disease outbreaks in the aquaculture systems pose a large risk to a sustainable fish industry system, and pose a risk to the coastal and fjord ecosystem systems as a whole. Norwegian marine aquaculture systems are located in open areas (i.e. fjords) where they overlap and interact with other systems (e.g. transport, wild life, tourist, etc.). For instance, shedding viruses from aquaculture sites affect the wild fish in the whole fjord system. Fish disease spread and pathogen transmission in such complex systems, is process that it is difficult to predict, analyze, and control. There are several time-variant factors such as fish density, environmental conditions and other biological factors that affect the spread process. In this thesis, we developed methods to examine these factors on fish disease spread in fish populations and on pathogen spread in the time-space domain. Then we develop methods to control and manage the aquaculture system by finding optimal system settings in order to have a minimum infection risk and a high production capacity. Aim: The overall objective of the thesis is to develop agent-based models, methods and tools to facilitate the management of aquaculture production in Norwegian fjords by predicting the pathogen dynamics, distribution, and transmission in marine aquaculture systems. Specifically, the objectives are to assess agent-based modeling as an approach to understanding fish disease spread processes, to develop agent-based models that help us predict, analyze and understand disease dynamics in the context of various scenarios, and to develop a framework to optimize the location and the load of the aquaculture systems so as to minimize the infection risk in a growing fish industry. Methods: We use agent-based method to build models to simulate disease dynamics in fish populations and to simulate pathogen transmission between several aquaculture sites in a Norwegian fjord. Also, we use particle swarm optimization algorithm to identify agent-based models’ parameters so as to optimize the dynamics of the system model. In this context, we present a framework for using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to identify the parameter values of the agent-based model of aquaculture system that are expected to yield the optimal fish densities and farm locations that avoid the risk of spreading disease. The use of particle swarm optimization algorithm helps in identifying optimal agent-based models’ input parameters depending on the feedback from the agentbased models’ outputs. Results: As the thesis is built on three main studies, the results of the thesis work can be divided into three components. In the first study, we developed many agent-based models to simulate fish disease spread in stand-alone fish populations. We test the models in different scenarios by varying the agents (i.e. fish and pathogens) parameters, environment parameters (i.e. seawater temperature and currents), and interactions (interaction between agents-agents, and agents-environment) parameters. We use sensitivity analysis method to test different key input parameters such as fish density, fish swimming behavior, seawater temperature, and sea currents to show their effects on the disease spread process. Exploring the sensitivity of fish disease dynamics to these key parameters helps in combatting fish disease spread. In the second study, we build infection risk maps in a space-time domain, by developing agent-based models to identify the pathogen transmission patterns. The agent-based method helps us advance our understanding of pathogen transmission and builds risk maps to help us reduce the spread of infectious fish diseases. By using this method, we may study the spatial and dynamic aspects of the spread of infections and address the stochastic nature of the infection process. In the third study, we developed a framework for the optimization of the aquaculture systems. The framework uses particle swarm optimization algorithm to optimize agent-based models’ parameters so as to optimize the objective function. The framework was tested by developing a model to find optimal fish densities and farm locations in marine aquaculture system in a Norwegian fjord. Results show so that the rapid convergence of the presented particle swarm optimization algorithm to the optimal solution, - the algorithm requires a maximum of 18 iterations to find the best solution which can increase the fish density to three times while keeping the risk of infection at an accepted level. Conclusion: There are many contributions of this research work. First, we assessed the agent-based modeling as a method to simulate and analyze fish disease spread dynamics as a foundation for managing aquaculture systems. Results from this study demonstrate how effective the use of agentbased method is in the simulation of infectious diseases. By using this method, we are able to study spatial aspects of the spread of fish diseases and address the stochastic nature of infections process. Agent-based models are flexible, and they can include many external factors that affect fish disease dynamics such as interactions with wild fish and ship traffic. Agent-based models successfully help us to overcome the problem associated with lack of data in fish disease transmission and contribute to our understanding of different cause-effects relationships in the dynamics of fish diseases. Secondly, we developed methods to build infection risk maps in a space-time domain conditioned upon the identification of the pathogen transmission patterns in such a space-time domain, so as to help prevent and, if needed, combat infectious fish diseases by informing the management of the fish industry in Norway. Finally, we developed a method by which we may optimize the fish densities and farm locations of aquaculture systems so as to ensure a sustainable fish industry with a minimum risk of infection and a high production capacity. This PhD study offers new research-based approaches, models and tools for analysis, predictions and management that can be used to facilitate a sustainable development of the marine aquaculture industry with a maximal economic outcome and a minimal environmental impact

Optimised Big Data analytics for health and safety hazards prediction in power infrastructure operations

© 2020 Elsevier Ltd Forecasting imminent accidents in power infrastructure projects require a robust and accurate prediction model to trigger a proactive strategy for risk mitigation. Unfortunately, getting ready-made machine learning algorithms to eliminate redundant features optimally is challenging, especially if the parameters of these algorithms are not tuned. In this study, a particle swarm optimization is proposed both for feature selection and parameters tuning of the gradient boosting machine technique on 1,349,239 data points of an incident dataset. The predictive ability of the proposed method compared to conventional tree-based methods revealed near-perfect predictions of the proposed model on test data (classification accuracy − 0.878 and coefficient of determination − 0.93) for the two outcome variables ACCIDENT and INJURYFREQ. The high predictive power obtained reveals that injuries do not occur in a chaotic fashion, but that underlying patterns and trends exist that can be uncovered and captured via machine learning when applied to sufficiently large datasets. Also, key relationships identified will assist safety managers to understand possible risk combinations that cause accidents; helping to trigger proactive risk mitigation plans

Management, Technology and Learning for Individuals, Organisations and Society in Turbulent Environments

This book presents the collection of fifty papers which were presented in the Second International Conference on BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY 2011 - Management, Technology and Learning for Individuals, Organisations and Society in Turbulent Environments , held in Póvoa de Varzim, Portugal, from 22ndto 24thof June, 2011.The main motive of the meeting was growing awareness of the importance of the sustainability issue. This importance had emerged from the growing uncertainty of the market behaviour that leads to the characterization of the market, i.e. environment, as turbulent. Actually, the characterization of the environment as uncertain and turbulent reflects the fact that the traditional technocratic and/or socio-technical approaches cannot effectively and efficiently lead with the present situation. In other words, the rise of the sustainability issue means the quest for new instruments to deal with uncertainty and/or turbulence. The sustainability issue has a complex nature and solutions are sought in a wide range of domains and instruments to achieve and manage it. The domains range from environmental sustainability (referring to natural environment) through organisational and business sustainability towards social sustainability. Concerning the instruments for sustainability, they range from traditional engineering and management methodologies towards “soft” instruments such as knowledge, learning, and creativity. The papers in this book address virtually whole sustainability problems space in a greater or lesser extent. However, although the uncertainty and/or turbulence, or in other words the dynamic properties, come from coupling of management, technology, learning, individuals, organisations and society, meaning that everything is at the same time effect and cause, we wanted to put the emphasis on business with the intention to address primarily companies and their businesses. Due to this reason, the main title of the book is “Business Sustainability 2.0” but with the approach of coupling Management, Technology and Learning for individuals, organisations and society in Turbulent Environments. Also, the notation“2.0” is to promote the publication as a step further from our previous publication – “Business Sustainability I” – as would be for a new version of software. Concerning the Second International Conference on BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY, its particularity was that it had served primarily as a learning environment in which the papers published in this book were the ground for further individual and collective growth in understanding and perception of sustainability and capacity for building new instruments for business sustainability. In that respect, the methodology of the conference work was basically dialogical, meaning promoting dialog on the papers, but also including formal paper presentations. In this way, the conference presented a rich space for satisfying different authors’ and participants’ needs. Additionally, promoting the widest and global learning environment and participation, in accordance with the Conference's assumed mission to promote Proactive Generative Collaborative Learning, the Conference Organisation shares/puts open to the community the papers presented in this book, as well as the papers presented on the previous Conference(s). These papers can be accessed from the conference webpage (http://labve.dps.uminho.pt/bs11). In these terms, this book could also be understood as a complementary instrument to the Conference authors’ and participants’, but also to the wider readerships’ interested in the sustainability issues. The book brought together 107 authors from 11 countries, namely from Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Serbia, Switzerland, and United States of America. The authors “ranged” from senior and renowned scientists to young researchers providing a rich and learning environment. At the end, the editors hope, and would like, that this book to be useful, meeting the expectation of the authors and wider readership and serving for enhancing the individual and collective learning, and to incentive further scientific development and creation of new papers. Also, the editors would use this opportunity to announce the intention to continue with new editions of the conference and subsequent editions of accompanying books on the subject of BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY, the third of which is planned for year 2013.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio