Weathering product-harm crises.

Product-harm crises can seriously imperil a brand's performance. Consumers tend to weigh negative publicity heavily in product judgments, customer preferences may shift towards competing products during the recall period, and competitors often increase their advertising spending in the wake of a brand's misfortune. To counter these negative effects, brands hope to capitalize on their equity, and often use advertising as a communication device to regain customers' lost trust. We develop a multiple-event hazard model to study how consumer characteristics and advertising influence consumers' first-purchase decisions for two affected brands of peanut butter following a severe Australian product-harm crisis. Buying a recently affected brand is perceived as highly risky, making the trial purchase a first hurdle to be taken in the brand's recovery. Both pre-crisis loyalty and familiarity are found to form an important buffer against the product-harm crisis, supporting the idea that a brand's equity prior to the crisis offers resilience in the face of misfortune. Also heavy users tend to purchase the affected brands sooner, unless their usage rate decreased significantly during the crisis. Brand advertising was found to be effective for the stronger brand, but not for the weaker brand, while competitive advertising delayed the first-purchase decision for both brands affected by the crisis.(pro-environmental) attitudes; Behavior; Claim; Cognitive; Consumption; Control; Control theory; Decision; Decisions; Demand; Ecological consumer behaviour; Effects; Ego depletion; Implications; Marketing; Model; Performance; Research; Self-control; Self-perception theory; Social marketing; Studies; Theory; Product; Judgments; Preference; Recall; Advertising; Brands; Communication; Trust; Characteristics; Loyalty;

Valuation implications of pharmaceutical companies' R&D regulatory approval notifications

This paper examines shareholder wealth effects surrounding applications to, and approvals by, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for firms listed on the New York (NYSE) and London (LSE) stock exchanges. Applications to the FDA for drug approvals significantly increase shareholder wealth for NYSE firms only. The increase is driven by applications for enhancements to existing drugs, with the market anticipating the application, thus suggesting information leakage. FDA approvals also significantly increase shareholder wealth in both markets. However, there is no evidence of information leakage and the significant post-event abnormal returns support the attention-grabbing hypothesis. Enhanced drug approvals are value-relevant for both markets, which highlights the contribution of real-options to firm value

European Monetary Policy Surprises: The Aggregate and Sectoral Stock Market Response

In this paper we investigate the stock market response to international monetary policy changes in the UK and Germany. Specifically, we analyse the impact of (un)expected changes in UK and German/euro area policy rates on UK and German aggregate and sectoral stock returns in an event study. The decomposition of the (un)expected changes in policy rates are based on futures markets. Overall, our results suggest that, UK monetary policy surprises have a significant negative influence on both aggregate and industry level stock returns in both the UK and Germany. The influence of German/Euro area monetary policy shocks appears insignificant for both countries.

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets in Small Open Economies: More or Less Effective During the Global Financial Crisis?

This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates and stock markets for eight small open economies: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. On average across these countries, a one percentage point surprise rise in official interest rates leads to a 1% appreciation of the exchange rate and a 1% fall in stock market indices. The effect on exchange rates is notably weaker in the non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries with a managed float. For the OECD countries, there is no robust evidence of a change in the effect of policy during the global financial crisis. For the non-OECD countries, there is some evidence of a stronger effect of policy on stock markets during the crisis, although further research is needed to investigate whether this is a result of measurement issues.Monetary policy effectiveness; exchange rate; stock prices; crisis; Asian economies

It’s not only WHAT is said, it’s also WHO the speaker is. Evaluating the effectiveness of central bank communication

On the basis of a unique database of policy makers’ comments, we find that central bank communication does influence behavior of financial markets. This effect is asymmetric and depends on the contents and direction of the statements. Moreover, we investigate whether individual characteristics of MPC members may influence their ability to affect the asset prices. We find that market participants are most vigilant to the comments made by policy makers who are relatively reticent, usually win voting and match their words with deeds. Moreover, the impact of statements on financial market behavior depends on whether a speaker represents a hawkish, dovish or neutral faction within the committee. Finally, we provide evidence that central bank communication affects the predictability of monetary policy decisions.Monetary policy; Central bank; Transparency; Communication

Timing of debt issues: Evidence from a panel of Tunisian and French firms

Recent literature argues that market timing becomes the factor that shapes financing policies. However, empirical studies on debt market timing still less numerous than those on equity market timing. This paper seeks to investigate the relevance of market timing considerations on debt issues using a panel of Tunisian and French listed firms. We have documented that net debt issuance is a decrease function of the market monetary rate. Moreover, our findings reveals that Tunisian firms succeed to raise their values by issuing debt when they expect that interest rates will increase. By contrast, french firms fail to reduce their overall cost of capital.capital structure, debt market timing, interest rate, market conditions, panel data

Stock market interactions and the impact of macroeconomic news – evidence from high frequency data of European futures markets

This study analyzes the short-term dynamic spillovers between the futures returns on the DAX, the DJ Eurostoxx 50 and the FTSE 100. It also examines whether economic news is one source of international stock return co-movements. In particular, we test whether stock market interdependencies are attributable to reactions of foreign traders to public economic information. Moreover, we analyze whether cross-market linkages remain the same or whether they do increase during periods in which economic news is released in one of the countries. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) there are clear short term international dynamic interactions among the European stock futures markets; (ii) foreign economic news affects domestic returns; (iii) futures returns adjust to news immediately; (iv) announcement timing of macroeconomic news matters; (v) stock market dynamic interactions do not increase at the time of the release of economic news; (vi) foreign investors react to the content of the news itself more than to the response of the domestic market to the national news; and (vii) contemporaneous correlation between futures returns changes at the time of macroeconomic releases. JEL Classification: G14, G1

Stock price reaction to earnings announcement: the case of an emerging market

In an efficient stock market stock prices instantaneously and accurately adjust to new information. This paper conducts an event study analysis on an emerging market namely the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) by investigating the stock price reaction to public announcement of quarterly after tax profit by listed firms. By employing 5 year data on stock prices from January 2004 to August 2008 for 114 non financial firms we found that there is no abnormal return post earnings announcement. Moreover the study provides evidence that there is a bigger element of surprise in bad news than in good news as the market reaction to bad news is stronger.Event Study, Earnings Announcement, Emerging Markets

The Impact of Foreign Macroeconomic News on Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

In this paper, we investigate the effects of euro area and US macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (CEEC-3) from 1999 to 2006. Using a GARCH model, we examine the impact of news on daily returns of three-month interest rates, stock market indices, exchange rates versus the euro, and the US dollar. First, both US and European macroeconomic news has a significant impact on CEEC-3 financial markets. Second, the process of European integration is accompanied by an increasing importance of euro area news relative to US news. Third, there are country-specific differences: for example, the Czech stock market is relatively more affected by foreign news since the Copenhagen Summit in December 2002. In general, our results support the hypothesis of a deepening euro area influence on the CEEC-3 over time and a corresponding reduction in the relative importance of US shocks.Czech Republic, European Monetary Union, Financial Markets, Hungary, Macroeconomic News, Poland