Analyzing Granger causality in climate data with time series classification methods

Attribution studies in climate science aim for scientifically ascertaining the influence of climatic variations on natural or anthropogenic factors. Many of those studies adopt the concept of Granger causality to infer statistical cause-effect relationships, while utilizing traditional autoregressive models. In this article, we investigate the potential of state-of-the-art time series classification techniques to enhance causal inference in climate science. We conduct a comparative experimental study of different types of algorithms on a large test suite that comprises a unique collection of datasets from the area of climate-vegetation dynamics. The results indicate that specialized time series classification methods are able to improve existing inference procedures. Substantial differences are observed among the methods that were tested

Modular Design Patterns for Hybrid Learning and Reasoning Systems: a taxonomy, patterns and use cases

The unification of statistical (data-driven) and symbolic (knowledge-driven) methods is widely recognised as one of the key challenges of modern AI. Recent years have seen large number of publications on such hybrid neuro-symbolic AI systems. That rapidly growing literature is highly diverse and mostly empirical, and is lacking a unifying view of the large variety of these hybrid systems. In this paper we analyse a large body of recent literature and we propose a set of modular design patterns for such hybrid, neuro-symbolic systems. We are able to describe the architecture of a very large number of hybrid systems by composing only a small set of elementary patterns as building blocks. The main contributions of this paper are: 1) a taxonomically organised vocabulary to describe both processes and data structures used in hybrid systems; 2) a set of 15+ design patterns for hybrid AI systems, organised in a set of elementary patterns and a set of compositional patterns; 3) an application of these design patterns in two realistic use-cases for hybrid AI systems. Our patterns reveal similarities between systems that were not recognised until now. Finally, our design patterns extend and refine Kautz' earlier attempt at categorising neuro-symbolic architectures.Comment: 20 pages, 22 figures, accepted for publication in the International Journal of Applied Intelligenc

AI for the Common Good?! Pitfalls, challenges, and Ethics Pen-Testing

Recently, many AI researchers and practitioners have embarked on research visions that involve doing AI for "Good". This is part of a general drive towards infusing AI research and practice with ethical thinking. One frequent theme in current ethical guidelines is the requirement that AI be good for all, or: contribute to the Common Good. But what is the Common Good, and is it enough to want to be good? Via four lead questions, I will illustrate challenges and pitfalls when determining, from an AI point of view, what the Common Good is and how it can be enhanced by AI. The questions are: What is the problem / What is a problem?, Who defines the problem?, What is the role of knowledge?, and What are important side effects and dynamics? The illustration will use an example from the domain of "AI for Social Good", more specifically "Data Science for Social Good". Even if the importance of these questions may be known at an abstract level, they do not get asked sufficiently in practice, as shown by an exploratory study of 99 contributions to recent conferences in the field. Turning these challenges and pitfalls into a positive recommendation, as a conclusion I will draw on another characteristic of computer-science thinking and practice to make these impediments visible and attenuate them: "attacks" as a method for improving design. This results in the proposal of ethics pen-testing as a method for helping AI designs to better contribute to the Common Good.Comment: to appear in Paladyn. Journal of Behavioral Robotics; accepted on 27-10-201

Adversarial Attacks on Deep Neural Networks for Time Series Classification

Time Series Classification (TSC) problems are encountered in many real life data mining tasks ranging from medicine and security to human activity recognition and food safety. With the recent success of deep neural networks in various domains such as computer vision and natural language processing, researchers started adopting these techniques for solving time series data mining problems. However, to the best of our knowledge, no previous work has considered the vulnerability of deep learning models to adversarial time series examples, which could potentially make them unreliable in situations where the decision taken by the classifier is crucial such as in medicine and security. For computer vision problems, such attacks have been shown to be very easy to perform by altering the image and adding an imperceptible amount of noise to trick the network into wrongly classifying the input image. Following this line of work, we propose to leverage existing adversarial attack mechanisms to add a special noise to the input time series in order to decrease the network's confidence when classifying instances at test time. Our results reveal that current state-of-the-art deep learning time series classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial attacks which can have major consequences in multiple domains such as food safety and quality assurance.Comment: Accepted at IJCNN 201

Metalearning

This open access book as one of the fastest-growing areas of research in machine learning, metalearning studies principled methods to obtain efficient models and solutions by adapting machine learning and data mining processes. This adaptation usually exploits information from past experience on other tasks and the adaptive processes can involve machine learning approaches. As a related area to metalearning and a hot topic currently, automated machine learning (AutoML) is concerned with automating the machine learning processes. Metalearning and AutoML can help AI learn to control the application of different learning methods and acquire new solutions faster without unnecessary interventions from the user. This book offers a comprehensive and thorough introduction to almost all aspects of metalearning and AutoML, covering the basic concepts and architecture, evaluation, datasets, hyperparameter optimization, ensembles and workflows, and also how this knowledge can be used to select, combine, compose, adapt and configure both algorithms and models to yield faster and better solutions to data mining and data science problems. It can thus help developers to develop systems that can improve themselves through experience. This book is a substantial update of the first edition published in 2009. It includes 18 chapters, more than twice as much as the previous version. This enabled the authors to cover the most relevant topics in more depth and incorporate the overview of recent research in the respective area. The book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in the areas of machine learning, data mining, data science and artificial intelligence. ; Metalearning is the study of principled methods that exploit metaknowledge to obtain efficient models and solutions by adapting machine learning and data mining processes. While the variety of machine learning and data mining techniques now available can, in principle, provide good model solutions, a methodology is still needed to guide the search for the most appropriate model in an efficient way. Metalearning provides one such methodology that allows systems to become more effective through experience. This book discusses several approaches to obtaining knowledge concerning the performance of machine learning and data mining algorithms. It shows how this knowledge can be reused to select, combine, compose and adapt both algorithms and models to yield faster, more effective solutions to data mining problems. It can thus help developers improve their algorithms and also develop learning systems that can improve themselves. The book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in the areas of machine learning, data mining and artificial intelligence

How can SMEs benefit from big data? Challenges and a path forward

Big data is big news, and large companies in all sectors are making significant advances in their customer relations, product selection and development and consequent profitability through using this valuable commodity. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have proved themselves to be slow adopters of the new technology of big data analytics and are in danger of being left behind. In Europe, SMEs are a vital part of the economy, and the challenges they encounter need to be addressed as a matter of urgency. This paper identifies barriers to SME uptake of big data analytics and recognises their complex challenge to all stakeholders, including national and international policy makers, IT, business management and data science communities. The paper proposes a big data maturity model for SMEs as a first step towards an SME roadmap to data analytics. It considers the ‘state-of-the-art’ of IT with respect to usability and usefulness for SMEs and discusses how SMEs can overcome the barriers preventing them from adopting existing solutions. The paper then considers management perspectives and the role of maturity models in enhancing and structuring the adoption of data analytics in an organisation. The history of total quality management is reviewed to inform the core aspects of implanting a new paradigm. The paper concludes with recommendations to help SMEs develop their big data capability and enable them to continue as the engines of European industrial and business success. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Metalearning

This open access book as one of the fastest-growing areas of research in machine learning, metalearning studies principled methods to obtain efficient models and solutions by adapting machine learning and data mining processes. This adaptation usually exploits information from past experience on other tasks and the adaptive processes can involve machine learning approaches. As a related area to metalearning and a hot topic currently, automated machine learning (AutoML) is concerned with automating the machine learning processes. Metalearning and AutoML can help AI learn to control the application of different learning methods and acquire new solutions faster without unnecessary interventions from the user. This book offers a comprehensive and thorough introduction to almost all aspects of metalearning and AutoML, covering the basic concepts and architecture, evaluation, datasets, hyperparameter optimization, ensembles and workflows, and also how this knowledge can be used to select, combine, compose, adapt and configure both algorithms and models to yield faster and better solutions to data mining and data science problems. It can thus help developers to develop systems that can improve themselves through experience. This book is a substantial update of the first edition published in 2009. It includes 18 chapters, more than twice as much as the previous version. This enabled the authors to cover the most relevant topics in more depth and incorporate the overview of recent research in the respective area. The book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in the areas of machine learning, data mining, data science and artificial intelligence. ; Metalearning is the study of principled methods that exploit metaknowledge to obtain efficient models and solutions by adapting machine learning and data mining processes. While the variety of machine learning and data mining techniques now available can, in principle, provide good model solutions, a methodology is still needed to guide the search for the most appropriate model in an efficient way. Metalearning provides one such methodology that allows systems to become more effective through experience. This book discusses several approaches to obtaining knowledge concerning the performance of machine learning and data mining algorithms. It shows how this knowledge can be reused to select, combine, compose and adapt both algorithms and models to yield faster, more effective solutions to data mining problems. It can thus help developers improve their algorithms and also develop learning systems that can improve themselves. The book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in the areas of machine learning, data mining and artificial intelligence

Towards Mobility Data Science (Vision Paper)

Mobility data captures the locations of moving objects such as humans, animals, and cars. With the availability of GPS-equipped mobile devices and other inexpensive location-tracking technologies, mobility data is collected ubiquitously. In recent years, the use of mobility data has demonstrated significant impact in various domains including traffic management, urban planning, and health sciences. In this paper, we present the emerging domain of mobility data science. Towards a unified approach to mobility data science, we envision a pipeline having the following components: mobility data collection, cleaning, analysis, management, and privacy. For each of these components, we explain how mobility data science differs from general data science, we survey the current state of the art and describe open challenges for the research community in the coming years.Comment: Updated arXiv metadata to include two authors that were missing from the metadata. PDF has not been change