54,203 research outputs found
Formal Verification of Probabilistic SystemC Models with Statistical Model Checking
Transaction-level modeling with SystemC has been very successful in
describing the behavior of embedded systems by providing high-level executable
models, in which many of them have inherent probabilistic behaviors, e.g.,
random data and unreliable components. It thus is crucial to have both
quantitative and qualitative analysis of the probabilities of system
properties. Such analysis can be conducted by constructing a formal model of
the system under verification and using Probabilistic Model Checking (PMC).
However, this method is infeasible for large systems, due to the state space
explosion. In this article, we demonstrate the successful use of Statistical
Model Checking (SMC) to carry out such analysis directly from large SystemC
models and allow designers to express a wide range of useful properties. The
first contribution of this work is a framework to verify properties expressed
in Bounded Linear Temporal Logic (BLTL) for SystemC models with both timed and
probabilistic characteristics. Second, the framework allows users to expose a
rich set of user-code primitives as atomic propositions in BLTL. Moreover,
users can define their own fine-grained time resolution rather than the
boundary of clock cycles in the SystemC simulation. The third contribution is
an implementation of a statistical model checker. It contains an automatic
monitor generation for producing execution traces of the
model-under-verification (MUV), the mechanism for automatically instrumenting
the MUV, and the interaction with statistical model checking algorithms.Comment: Journal of Software: Evolution and Process. Wiley, 2017. arXiv admin
note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1507.0818
Monte Carlo Simulation in Environmental Risk Assessment--Science, Policy and Legal Issues
Dr. Poulter notes that agencies should anticipate judicial requirements for justification of Monte Carlo simulations and, meanwhile, should consider, e.g., whether their use will make risk assessment policy choices more opaque or apparent
Representing uncertainty in continental-scale gridded precipitation fields for agrometeorological modeling
This work proposes a relatively simple methodology for creating ensembles of precipitation inputs that are consistent with the spatial and temporal scale necessary for regional crop modeling. A high-quality reference precipitation dataset [the European Land Data Assimilation System (ELDAS)] was used as a basis to define the uncertainty in an operational precipitation database [the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS)]. The distributions of precipitation residuals (CGMS ¿ ELDAS) were determined for classes of CGMS precipitation and transformed to a Gaussian distribution using normal score transformations. In cases of zero CGMS precipitation, the occurrence of rainfall was controlled by an indicator variable. The resulting normal-score-transformed precipitation residuals appeared to be approximately multivariate Gaussian and exhibited strong spatial correlation; however, temporal correlation was very weak. An ensemble of 100 precipitation realizations was created based on back-transformed spatially correlated Gaussian residuals and indicator realizations. Quantile¿quantile plots of 100 realizations against the ELDAS reference data for selected sites revealed similar distributions (except for the 100th percentile, owing to some large residuals in the realizations). The semivariograms of realizations for sampled days showed considerable variability in the overall variance; the range of the spatial correlation was similar to that of the ELDAS reference dataset. The intermittency characteristics of wet and dry periods were reproduced well for most of the selected sites, but the method failed to reproduce the dry period statistics in semiarid areas (e.g., southern Spain). Finally, a case study demonstrates how rainfall ensembles can be used in operational crop modeling and crop yield forecasting
Composite load spectra for select space propulsion structural components
The objective of this program is to develop generic load models with multiple levels of progressive sophistication to simulate the composite (combined) load spectra that are induced in space propulsion system components, representative of Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), such as transfer ducts, turbine blades, and liquid oxygen posts and system ducting. The first approach will consist of using state of the art probabilistic methods to describe the individual loading conditions and combinations of these loading conditions to synthesize the composite load spectra simulation. The second approach will consist of developing coupled models for composite load spectra simulation which combine the deterministic models for composite load dynamic, acoustic, high pressure, and high rotational speed, etc., load simulation using statistically varying coefficients. These coefficients will then be determined using advanced probabilistic simulation methods with and without strategically selected experimental data
Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking
Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be
both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming,
algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on
observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm on learning
probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior
is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an
algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision
process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system. The proposed
learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic
probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and
nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and
evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation is
performed by analyzing the probabilistic linear temporal logic properties of
the system as well as by analyzing the schedulers, in particular the optimal
schedulers, induced by the learned models.Comment: In Proceedings QFM 2012, arXiv:1212.345
Automata-based adaptive behavior for economic modeling using game theory
In this paper, we deal with some specific domains of applications to game
theory. This is one of the major class of models in the new approaches of
modelling in the economic domain. For that, we use genetic automata which allow
to buid adaptive strategies for the players. We explain how the automata-based
formalism proposed - matrix representation of automata with multiplicities -
allows to define a semi-distance between the strategy behaviors. With that
tools, we are able to generate an automatic processus to compute emergent
systems of entities whose behaviors are represented by these genetic automata
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