Application of Stationary Wavelet Support Vector Machines for the Prediction of Economic Recessions

This paper examines the efficiency of various approaches on the classification and prediction of economic expansion and recession periods in United Kingdom. Four approaches are applied. The first is discrete choice models using Logit and Probit regressions, while the second approach is a Markov Switching Regime (MSR) Model with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities. The third approach refers on Support Vector Machines (SVM), while the fourth approach proposed in this study is a Stationary Wavelet SVM modelling. The findings show that SW-SVM and MSR present the best forecasting performance, in the out-of sample period. In addition, the forecasts for period 2012-2015 are provided using all approaches

Development of Auditing in Malaysia:Legal,Political and Historical Influences

This work investigates the role and contribution of external auditing as practised in the Malaysian society during the forty year period from independence in 1957 to just before the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. It applies the political economic theory introduced by Tinker (1980) and refined by Cooper & Sherer (1984), which emphasises the social relations aspects of professional activity rather than economic forces alone. In a case study format where qualitative data was gathered mainly from primary and secondary source materials, the study found that the function of auditing in the Malaysian society in most cases is devoid of any essence of mission; instead it is created, shaped and changed by the pressures which give rise to its development over time. The largely insignificant role that it serves is intertwined within the contexts in which it operates

Detecting financial distress

This paper examines two types of statistical tests, which are multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and the logit model to detect financially distressed companies. Comparison between the two statistical tests is implemented to identiy factors that could differentiate financially distressed companies from the healthy company. Among the fifteen explanators, M D A shows that the current ratios, net income to total asset, and sales to current asset, are the indicators of financially distressed companies. Other than net income to total asset, the logit model provides two different ratios which are shareholders’filnd to total liabilities, and cash flow from financing to total liabilities, to identi@ financially distressed companies. It zuasfound that the logit model could accurately predict 91.5% of the estimation sample and 90% of the holdout sample whereas the discriminant model shows an overall accuracy rate of 84.5% and 80% for the estimatiorl and the holdout sample respectively

Application of support vector machines on the basis of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model

In our study we rely on a data mining procedure known as support vector machine (SVM) on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model. The models constructed are then contrasted with the results of earlier bankruptcy models with the use of classification accuracy and the area under the ROC curve. In using the SVM technique, in addition to conventional kernel functions, we also examine the possibilities of applying the ANOVA kernel function and take a detailed look at data preparation tasks recommended in using the SVM method (handling of outliers). The results of the models assembled suggest that a significant improvement of classification accuracy can be achieved on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model when using the SVM method as opposed to neural networks

Development of auditing in Malaysia: legal, political and historical influences

This work investigates the role and contribution of external auditing as practised in the Malaysian society during the forty year period from independence in 1957 to just before the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. It applies the political economic theory introduced by Tinker (1980) and refined by Cooper & Sherer (1984), which focuses on the social relations aspects of professional activity rather than economic forces alone. In a case study format where qualitative data was gathered mainly from primary and secondary source materials, the study found that the function of auditing in the Malaysian society in most cases is devoid of any essence of mission; instead it is created, shaped and transformed by the pressures which give rise to its development over time. The largely insignificant role that it serves is intertwined within the contexts in which it operates.external audit; Malaysia; politics; history; economy; Companies Act 1965; Companies Act 1985; British Companies Acts; Accountants Act 1967; Asian Financial Crisis