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Investment Risk Appraisal
Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. This
approach may account for what occurs most of the time in the market, but the picture it presents does not reflect the reality, as the
major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy
approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the
data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each
investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK
companies and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we
discuss the grounds for classical asset pricing model revision and argue that the demand for relaxed assumptions appeals for another
approach to modelling the market environment
"Can the neuro fuzzy model predict stock indexes better than its rivals?"
This paper develops a model of a trading system by using neuro fuzzy framework in order to better predict the stock index. Thirty well-known stock indexes are analyzed with the help of the model developed here. The empirical results show strong evidence of nonlinearity in the stock index by using KD technical indexes. The trading point analysis and the sensitivity analysis of trading costs show the robustness and opportunity for making further profits through using the proposed nonlinear neuro fuzzy system. The scenario analysis also shows that the proposed neuro fuzzy system performs consistently over time.
Risks of investment in personnel development: evidence from Ukrainian IT companies
In this paper, we examine key factors that influence the risks of investment in the
development of human capital of a firm in the IT sector and estimate their weight
in the overall risk. In particular, we single out the risk of premature voluntary termination
of an employee, the risk of ineffective training, and the risk of a firm’s
incorrect employee development strategy. Moreover, to support management of
the mentioned kinds of risks, we enumerate the factors that influence them and
classify those factors into three main groups: related to the employee, related to
the firm, and related to the external environment. Based on this division, we build
a model for estimating the risks of investing in the development of personnel
using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
INVESTMENT PROJECT SELECTION BY APPLYING COPRAS METHOD AND IMPRECISE DATA
Investment projects can have a significant impact on the functioning and development of acompany. Therefore, the selection of one or more investment projects from the set of possible is animportant and difficult task for decision makers. This paper considers the investment projectsselection based on financial analysis criteria and use of imprecise data. In the proposed model, thealternative projects performances are expressed using crisp and interval values, and then the bestproject from the available is selected by using COPRAS and COPRAS-G methods. A numericalexample is given to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach
Capital Budgeting Methods and Performance of Water Services Boards in Kenya
One management practice that has been widely adopted by corporations is capital budgeting. The current study sought to establish the relationship between capital budgeting methods and performance of water services boards in Kenya. The study was guided by the following specific objectives: to identify the capital budgeting techniques employed by the Water Services Boards in Kenya; to assess the factors that influence the choice of the capital budgeting techniques used by the Water Services Boards in Kenya; and to evaluate the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and organizational performance. A review of literature related to the study area was undertaken in order to eliminate duplication of what has been done and provide a clear understanding of existing knowledge base in the problem area. The literature review is based on authoritative, recent, and original sources such as journals, books, thesis and dissertations. A descriptive design was to identity the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and performance in water services boards in Kenya, whose number stood at 8 as at June 2008. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data from the respondents. Since all the Water Boards have websites and reliable internet connection, the researcher sent the questionnaires to the respondents outside Nairobi by email. The Boards whose Head offices are located in Nairobi received their questionnaires by hand delivery. A letter of introduction, stating the purpose of the study was attached to each questionnaire. In addition, the researcher made telephone calls to the respective respondents to further explain the purpose of the study and set a time frame for the completion of the questionnaires. Once completed, the researcher personally collected the questionnaires from respondents in Nairobi, while those from outside Nairobi were received online. Findings of the study indicate that the capital budgeting techniques used by Water Services Boards in Kenya include Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Profitability Index, Average Rate of Return and Payback Period. The findings further show that the Factors that Influence the choice of capital budgeting techniques include: - Cost of debt to the Water Service Board, either from public or private sources; Internal Rate of Return; Average cost of capital for its stakeholders; Average rate of return on equity invested by the Water Services Boards; and Risk associated with the project. The findings also point at a positive relationship between usage of capital budgeting techniques and organizational performance. Improved access to funding to undertake projects and informed decision making were cited by the respondents as being the major benefits of adoption of capital budgeting techniques. Keywords: Capital Budgeting, Performance, Water Services Board
An alternative approach to firms’ evaluation: expert systems and fuzzy logic
Discounted Cash Flow techniques are the generally accepted methods for valuing firms. Such methods do not provide explicit acknowledgment of the value determinants and overlook their interrelations. This paper proposes a different method of firm valuation based on fuzzy logic and expert systems. It does represent a conceptual transposition of Discounted Cash Flow techniques but, unlike the latter, it takes explicit account of quantitative and qualitative variables and their mutual integration. Financial, strategic and business aspects are considered by focusing on twenty-nine value drivers that are combined together via “if-then” rules. The output of the system is a real number in the interval [0,1], which represents the value-creation power of the firm. To corroborate the model a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The system may be used for rating and ranking firms as well as for assessing the impact of managers’ decisions on value creation and as a tool of corporate governance.Firms’ evaluation, fuzzy logic, expert system, rating, acquisition, sensitivity analysis
Risk management and risk control for state-owned firms of China
As global economic integration deepens and enterprises scale up their business, the enterprise groups have become the mainstream of the company's development form. Subsidiaries of the Company have grown in size and increasingly diversified. Thus how does the parent Company control its subsidiaries effectively has become an urgent challenge, especially for the state-owned enterprises in China. This thesis studies the management and control of state-owned enterprises in China, carrying certain theoretical and practical significance.
The research examined the theory and mechanism of management of SOEs, and evaluation on employee performance. It also analyzed performance evaluation, coordination and risk control strategies of SOEs' subsidiaries. The same studies were repeated on state-owned enterprise groups and extended to the strategies of risk management and risk control.
The thesis first examined the conundrum of effective cooperation between subsidiaries of different departments and the parent company for efficient allocation of resources. To tackle this headache, the IAHP and DEA model were adopted to help group decision makers better measure the performance of employees and organizations. The thesis used the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) tool as the main principle and the combination of fuzzy mathematics and Delphi and entropy weight methods as the main methodology to assess the performance. In addition, a novel method of using multi-reasoning, multi-dimensional and dynamic factors was developed to assess the performance of SOE employees, and this method was proven to be effective. Moreover, the super-efficiency DEA model which takes into account work performance, work ability, work attitude, job potential and other factors in the evaluation on employee performance was developed and tested. Finally, risk map for SOEs was proposed and evaluated
A fuzzy decision‐making approach for portfolio management with direct real estate investment
This study incorporated expert knowledge into the classical quadratic programming approach, i.e., Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), through fuzzy set theory; in obtaining portfolio return optimization involving direct real estate investment. Two fuzzy mathematical programming models were uniquely specified and estimated in this study, namely, Zimmer‐mann's (2001) fuzzy tactical asset allocation (FTAA) flexible programming model and Ramik and Rimanek's (1985) FTAA robust programming model. These approaches try to overcome the drawbacks of traditional asset allocation models by including expert adjustment in the presence of imprecise information. The findings suggest that the fuzzy tactical asset allocation (FTAA Flexible Model), with the inclusion of expert judgments which contain information usually not found in historical data, is able to produce a portfolio just as efficient as traditional asset allocation models while minimizing the potential issues due to imprecision and vagueness of information. Meanwhile, the FTAA Robust Model proffers a more evenly‐distributed, yet with higher risks and lower returns, portfolio. Aside from the lack of emphasis on portfolio risks minimization, one reason attributed to such anomaly is the low level of returns of high‐risk stocks that are not selected by MPT and FTAA Flexible Models. It results in a unique situation where portfolio diversification does not necessarily guarantee an efficient investment decision.
Santruka
Šis tyrimas itraukia ekspertines žinias i klasikine kvadratinio programavimo metodika, pavyzdžiui, moderniaja portfelio valdymo teorija, per neapibrežtuju aibiu teorija, siekiant optimizuoti portfelio graža, apimant tiesiogines nekilnojamojo turto investicijas. Šiame tyrime išsamiai aprašomi ir ivertinami du neapibrežtojo matematinio programavimo modeliai. Tai Zimmermann (2001) neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo lankstusis programavimo modelis ir Ramik bei Rimanek (1985) neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo robustinis programavimo modelis. Juos taikant bandoma pašalinti tradiciniu aktyvu paskirstymo metodu trūkumus itraukiant ekspertu siūlomus pakeitimus nesant tikslios informacijos. Nustatyta, kad neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymas (neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo lankstusis programavimo modelis) kartu su ekspertu vertinimais, paprastai apimančiais informacija, kurios negalima rasti tarp istoriniu duomenu, leidžia sudaryti toki pati efektyvu portfeli, kaip ir tradiciniai aktyvu paskirstymo modeliai, tačiau minimizuojant potencialius nesutarimus, kuriu atsiranda del netikslios ir neapibrežtos informacijos. Neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo robustinis programavimo modelis siūlo tolygiau paskirstyta, tačiau rizikingesni ir ne toki pelninga portfeli. Be portfelio rizikos minimizavimo trūkumo, dar viena priežastis, priskiriama prie šios anomalijos, yra maža dideles rizikos akciju graža, kuri nera pasirenkama moderniojoje portfelio valdymo teorijoje ir neapibrežtuju aktyvu paskirstymo lanksčiuosiuose programavimo modeliuose. Kaip rezultatas gaunama unikali situacija, kai portfelio diversifikavimas nebūtinai garantuoja efektyvu investavimo sprendima.
First Publish Online: 18 Oct 201
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