Landslide displacement forecasting using deep learning and monitoring data across selected sites

Accurate early warning systems for landslides are a reliable risk-reduction strategy that may significantly reduce fatalities and economic losses. Several machine learning methods have been examined for this purpose, underlying deep learning (DL) models’ remarkable prediction capabilities. The long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) algorithms are the sole DL model studied in the extant comparisons. However, several other DL algorithms are suitable for time series forecasting tasks. In this paper, we assess, compare, and describe seven DL methods for forecasting future landslide displacement: multi-layer perception (MLP), LSTM, GRU, 1D convolutional neural network (1D CNN), 2xLSTM, bidirectional LSTM (bi-LSTM), and an architecture composed of 1D CNN and LSTM (Conv-LSTM). The investigation focuses on four landslides with different geographic locations, geological settings, time step dimensions, and measurement instruments. Two landslides are located in an artificial reservoir context, while the displacement of the other two is influenced just by rainfall. The results reveal that the MLP, GRU, and LSTM models can make reliable predictions in all four scenarios, while the Conv- LSTM model outperforms the others in the Baishuihe landslide, where the landslide is highly seasonal. No evident performance differences were found for landslides inside artificial reservoirs rather than outside. Furthermore, the research shows that MLP is better adapted to forecast the highest displacement peaks, while LSTM and GRU are better suited to model lower displacement peaks. We believe the findings of this research will serve as a precious aid when implementing a DL-based landslide early warning system (LEWS).SUPPORTO SCIENTIFICO PER L’OTTIMIZZAZIONE, IMPLEMENTAZIONE E GESTIONE DEL SISTEMA DI MONITORAGGIO CON AGGIORNAMENTO DELLE SOGLIE DI ALLERTAMENTO DEL FENOMENO FRANOSO DI SANT’ANDREA – PERAROLO DI CADORE (BL)” and the Spanish Grant “SARAI, PID2020-116540RB-C21,MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033” and “RISKCOASTInSAR displacement data of the El Arrecife landslideGeohazard Exploitation Platform (GEP) of the European Space AgencyNoR Projects Sponsorship (Project ID: 63737

Supervised machine learning algorithms for ground motion time series classification from InSAR data

The increasing availability of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images facilitates the genera- tion of rich Differential Interferometric SAR (DInSAR) data. Temporal analysis of DInSAR products, and in particular deformation Time Series (TS), enables advanced investigations for ground deforma- tion identification. Machine Learning algorithms offer efficient tools for classifying large volumes of data. In this study, we train supervised Machine Learning models using 5000 reference samples of three datasets to classify DInSAR TS in five deformation trends: Stable, Linear, Quadratic, Bilinear, and Phase Unwrapping Error. General statistics and advanced features are also computed from TS to assess the classification performance. The proposed methods reported accuracy values greater than 0.90, whereas the customized features significantly increased the performance. Besides, the importance of customized features was analysed in order to identify the most effective features in TS classification. The proposed models were also tested on 15000 unlabelled data and compared to a model-based method to validate their reliability. Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting could accurately classify reference samples and positively assign correct labels to random samples. This study indicates the efficiency of Machine Learning models in the classification and management of DInSAR TSs, along with shortcomings of the proposed models in classification of nonmoving targets (i.e., false alarm rate) and a decreasing accuracy for shorter TS.This work is part of the Spanish Grant SARAI, PID2020-116540RB-C21, funded by MCIN/ AEI/10.13039/501100011033. Additionally, it has been supported by the European Regional Devel- opment Fund (ERDF) through the project “RISKCOAST” (SOE3/P4/E0868) of the Interreg SUDOE Programme. Additionally, this work has been co-funded by the European Union Civil Protection through the H2020 project RASTOOL (UCPM-2021-PP-101048474).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Ground-based synthetic aperture radar (GBSAR) interferometry for deformation monitoring

Ph. D ThesisGround-based synthetic aperture radar (GBSAR), together with interferometry, represents a powerful tool for deformation monitoring. GBSAR has inherent flexibility, allowing data to be collected with adjustable temporal resolutions through either continuous or discontinuous mode. The goal of this research is to develop a framework to effectively utilise GBSAR for deformation monitoring in both modes, with the emphasis on accuracy, robustness, and real-time capability. To achieve this goal, advanced Interferometric SAR (InSAR) processing algorithms have been proposed to address existing issues in conventional interferometry for GBSAR deformation monitoring. The proposed interferometric algorithms include a new non-local method for the accurate estimation of coherence and interferometric phase, a new approach to selecting coherent pixels with the aim of maximising the density of selected pixels and optimizing the reliability of time series analysis, and a rigorous model for the correction of atmospheric and repositioning errors. On the basis of these algorithms, two complete interferometric processing chains have been developed: one for continuous and the other for discontinuous GBSAR deformation monitoring. The continuous chain is able to process infinite incoming images in real time and extract the evolution of surface movements through temporally coherent pixels. The discontinuous chain integrates additional automatic coregistration of images and correction of repositioning errors between different campaigns. Successful deformation monitoring applications have been completed, including three continuous (a dune, a bridge, and a coastal cliff) and one discontinuous (a hillside), which have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of the presented algorithms and chains for high-accuracy GBSAR interferometric measurement. Significant deformation signals were detected from the three continuous applications and no deformation from the discontinuous. The achieved results are justified quantitatively via a defined precision indicator for the time series estimation and validated qualitatively via a priori knowledge of these observing sites.China Scholarship Council (CSC), Newcastle Universit

Method for landslides detection with semi-automatic procedures: The case in the zone center-east of Cauca department, Colombia

Landslides are a common natural hazard that causes human casualties, but also infrastructure damage and land-use degradation. Therefore, a quantitative assessment of their presence is required by means of detecting and recognizing the potentially unstable areas. This research aims to develop a method supported on semiautomatic methods to detect potential mass movements at a regional scale. Five techniques were studied: Morphometry, SAR interferometry (InSAR), Persistent Scatterer InSAR (PS-InSAR), SAR polarimetry (PolSAR) and NDVI composites of Landsat 5, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8. The case study was chosen within the mid-eastern area of the Cauca state, which is characterised by its mountainous terrain and the presence of slope instabilities, officially registered in the CGS-SIMMA landslide inventory. This inventory revealed that the type `slide' occurred with 77.4% from the entire registries, `fall' with 16.5%, followed by `creeps' with 3%, flows with 2.6%, and `lateral spread' with 0.43%. As a result, we obtained the morphometric variables: slope, CONVI, TWI, landform, which were highly associated with landslides. The effect of a DEM in the processing flow of the InSAR method was similar for the InSAR coherence variable using the DEMs ASTER, PALSAR RTC, Topo-map, and SRTM. Then, a multiInSAR analysis gave displacement velocities in the LOS direction between -10 and 10 mm/year. With the dual-PolSAR analysis (Sentinel-1), VH and VV C-band polarised radar energy emitted median values of backscatters, for landslides, about of -14.5 dB for VH polarisation and -8.5 dB for VV polarisation. Also, L-band fully polarimetric NASA-UAVSAR data allowed to nd the mechanism of dispersion of CGS landslide inventory: 39% for surface scattering, 46.4% for volume dispersion, and 14.6% for double-bounce scattering. The optical remote sensing provided NDVI composites derived from Landsat series between 2012 and 2016, showing that NDVI values between 0.40 and 0.70 had a high correlation to landslides. In summary, we found the highest categories related to landslides by Weight of Evidence method (WofE) for each spaceborne technique applied. Finally, these results were merged to generate the landslide detection model by using the supervised machine learning method of Random Forest. By taking training and test samples, the precision of the detection model was of about 70% for the rotational and translational types.Los deslizamientos son una amenaza natural que causa pérdidas humanas, daños a la infraestructura y degradación del suelo. Una evaluación cuantitativa de su presencia se requiere mediante la detección y el reconocimiento de potenciales áreas inestables. Esta investigación tuvo como alcance desarrollar un método soportado en métodos semi-automáticos para detectar potenciales movimientos en masa a escala regional. Cinco técnicas fueron estudiadas: Morfometría, Interferometría radar, Interferometría con Persistent Scatterers, Polarimetría radar y composiciones del NDVI con los satélites Landsat 5, Landsat 7 y Landsat 8. El caso de estudio se seleccionó dentro de la región intermedia al este del departamento del Cauca, la cual se caracteriza por terreno montañoso y la presencia de inestabilidades de la pendiente oficialmente registrados en el servicio SIMMA del Servicio Geológico Colombiano. Este inventario reveló que el tipo de movimiento deslizamiento ocurrió con una frecuencia relativa de 77.4%, caidos con el 16.5% de los casos y reptaciones con 3%, flujos con 2.6% y propagación lateral con 0.43%. Como resultado, se obtuvo las variables morfométricas: pendiente, convergencia, índice topográfico de humedad y forma del terreno altamente asociados con los deslizamientos. El efecto de un DEM en el procesamiento del método InSAR fue similar para la variable coherencia usando los DEMs: ASTER, PAlSAR RTC, Topo-map y SRTM. Un análisis Multi-InSAR estimó velocidades de desplazamiento en dirección de vista del radar entre -10 y 10 mm/año. El análisis de polarimetría dual del Sentinel-1 arrojó valores de retrodispersión promedio de -14.5 dB en la banda VH y -8.5dB en la banda VV. Las cuatro polarimetrías del sensor aéreo UAVSAR permitió caracterizar el mecanismo de dispersión del Inventario de Deslizamiento así: 39% en el mecanismo de superficie, 46.4% en el mecanismo de volumen y 14.6% en el mecanismo de doble rebote. La información generada en el rango óptico permitió obtener composiciones de NDVI derivados de la plataforma Landsat entre los años 2012 y 2016, mostrando que el rango entre 0.4 y 0.7 tuvieron una alta asociación con los deslizamientos. En esta investigación se determinaron las categorías de las variables de Teledetección más altamente relacionadas con los movimientos en masa mediante el método de Pesos de Evidencias (WofE). Finalmente, estos resultados se fusionaron para generar el modelo de detección de deslizamientos usando el método supervisado de aprendizaje de máquina Random Forest. Tomando muestras aleatorias para entrenar y validar el modelo en una proporción 70:30, el modelo de detección, especialmente los movimientos de tipo rotacional y traslacional fueron clasificados con una tasa general de éxito del 70%.Ministerio de CienciasConvocatoria 647 de 2014Research line: Geotechnics and Geoenvironmental HazardDoctorad

Monitoring von Hangbewegungen mit InSAR Techniken im Gebiet Ciloto, Indonesien

In this doctoral thesis, the InSAR techniques are applied to detect the ground movement phenomenon and to assess the InSAR result geometrically in the Ciloto area, Indonesia. Mainly, one of those techniques, the SB-SDFP algorithm, overcomes the limitations of conventional InSAR in monitoring rural and agricultural areas and can observe extremely slow landslides. The InSAR strategy is positively known as a promising option to detect and quantify the kinematics of active landslides on a large areal scale. To minimize the bias of the InSAR displacement result, the correction of the tropospheric phase delay was carried out in a first step. This procedure is demonstrated in experiments both in the small study area in Ciloto and in a larger area. The latter is an area located in Northern Baja California, Mexico and is dominated by tectonic activity as well as groundwater-induced subsidence. A detailed investigation of the slope movement's behavior in the Ciloto district was conducted utilizing multi-temporal and multi-band SAR data from ERS1/2 (1996-1999), ALOS PALSAR (2007-2009) and Sentinel-1 (2014-2018) satellites. The region was successfully identified as a permanent active landslide prone area, especially in the vicinity of the Puncak Pass and Puncak Highway. The full 3D velocity field and the displacement time series were estimated using the inversion model. The velocity rate was classified from extremely slow to slow movement. To comprehend the landslide's behavior, a further examination of the relationship between InSAR results and physical characteristics of the area was carried out. For the long period of a slow-moving landslide, the relationship between precipitation and displacement trend shows a weak correlation. It is concluded that the extremely slow to slow deformation is not directly influenced by the rainfall intensity, yet it effectuates the subsurface and the groundwater flow. The run-off process with rainfall exceeding a soil's infiltration capacity was suspected as the main driver of the slow ground movement phenomenon. However, when analyzing rapid and extremely rapid landslide events at Puncak Pass, a significant increase in the correlation coefficient between precipitation and displacement rate could be observed.In dieser Doktorarbeit wird die Anwendung von erweiterten Verarbeitungsstrategien von InSAR Daten zur Erkennung und geometrischen Bewertung der Bodenbewegungen im Ciloto - Indonesien dargestellt. Dieser Ansatz überwindet die Beschränkungen konventioneller SAR-Interferometrie und ermöglicht sowohl ein kontinuierliches Monitoring dieses landwirtschaftich geprägten Gebietes als auch die Erfassung extrem langsamer Hangrutschungen. Um eine Verzerrung der InSAR Deformationsergebnisse zu minimieren, wurde zunächst eine Korrektur der troposphärischen Phase durchgeführt. Diese neuartige Strategie wird sowohl im Forschungsgebiet Ciloto als auch an einem größeren Gebiet demonstriert. Bei letzterem handelt es sich um einen Küstenstreifen im nördlichen Niederkalifornien, Mexiko, welcher durch hohe tektonische Aktivität und grundwasserinduzierte Landsetzungen charakterisiert ist. Die detaillierte Untersuchung des Verhaltens von Hangrutschungen im Ciloto erfolgte durch die Verarbeitung multi-temporaler SAR-Daten unter Nutzung verschiedener Frequenzbänder, darunter ESR1/2 (1996-1999), ALOS PALSAR (2007-2009) und Sentinel-1 (2014-2018) Daten. Die Region konnte erfolgreich als permanent aktives Hangrutschungsgebiet identifiziert werden, wobei der Puncak Pass und der Puncak Highway ein erhöhtes Gefahrenpotential aufweisen. Ein 3D- Geschwindig-keitsfeld der Deformation und die zugehörigen Zeitreihen wurden mit dem Inversionsmodell berechnet. Die Geschwindigkeitsrate wurde als langsam bis extrem langsam klassifiziert. Um das dynamische Verhalten der Hangrutschung zu verstehen wurde, in einer weiteren Untersuchung die Beziehung zwischen dem InSAR-Ergebnis und den physikalischen Begebenheiten im Forschungsgebiet analysiert. Es wird der Schluss gezogen, dass die langsame bis extrem langsame Verformung nicht direkt von der Niederschlagsintensität beeinflusst wird, diese sich aber auf den Untergrund und die Grundwasserströmung auswirkt. Es wird vermutet, dass der Oberflächenablauf, welcher die Infiltrationskapazität des Bodens übersteigt, ausschlaggebend für das Phänomen der langsamen Bodenbewegung ist. Für die schnellen und extrem schnellen Hangrutschungen jedoch konnte eine signifikante Erhöhung des Korrelationskoeffizienten zwischen Niederschlag und Verschiebungsrate bei Untersuchungen der Hangrutschung am Puncak-Pass nachgewiesen werden

Senslide: a distributed landslide prediction system

We describe the design, implementation, and current status of Senslide, a distributed sensor system aimed at predicting landslides in the hilly regions of western India. Landslides in this region occur during the monsoon rains and cause significant damage to property and lives. Unlike existing solutions that detect landslides in this region, our goal is to predict them before they occur. Also, unlike previous efforts that use a few but expensive sensors to measure slope stability, our solution uses a large number of inexpensive sensor nodes inter-connected by a wireless network. Our system software is designed to tolerate the increased failures such inexpensive components may entail. We have implemented our design in the small on a laboratory testbed of 65 sensor nodes, and present results from that testbed as well as simulation results for larger systems up to 400 sensor nodes. Our results are sufficiently encouraging that we intend to do a field test of the system during the monsoon season in India

National Report for the IAG of the IUGG 2019-2022

Major results of researches conducted by Russian geodesists in 2019-2022 on the topics of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) are presented in this issue. This report is prepared by the Section of Geodesy of the National Geophysical Committee of Russia. In the report prepared for the XXVII General Assembly of IUGG (Germany, Berlin, 11-20 July 2023), the results of principal researches in geodesy, geodynamics, gravimetry, in the studies of geodetic reference frame creation and development, Earth's shape and gravity field, Earth's rotation, geodetic theory, its application and some other directions are briefly described. For some objective reasons not all results obtained by Russian scientists on the field of geodesy are included in the report.Comment: Misprint in the title of the arXiv record has been corrected. The submission content is not affecte

Multilayer perceptron network optimization for chaotic time series modeling

Chaotic time series are widely present in practice, but due to their characteristics—such as internal randomness, nonlinearity, and long-term unpredictability—it is difficult to achieve high-precision intermediate or long-term predictions. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) networks are an effective tool for chaotic time series modeling. Focusing on chaotic time series modeling, this paper presents a generalized degree of freedom approximation method of MLP. We then obtain its Akachi information criterion, which is designed as the loss function for training, hence developing an overall framework for chaotic time series analysis, including phase space reconstruction, model training, and model selection. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, it is applied to two artificial chaotic time series and two real-world chaotic time series. The numerical results show that the proposed optimized method is effective to obtain the best model from a group of candidates. Moreover, the optimized models perform very well in multi-step prediction tasks.This research was funded in part by the NSFC grant numbers 61972174 and 62272192, the Science-Technology Development Plan Project of Jilin Province grant number 20210201080GX, the Jilin Province Development and Reform Commission grant number 2021C044-1, the Guangdong Universities’ Innovation Team grant number 2021KCXTD015, and Key Disciplines Projects grant number 2021ZDJS138