Light me up: power and expertise in risk communication and policy-making in the e-cigarette health debates

This paper presents a detailed account of policy-making in a contemporary risk communication arena, where strong power dynamics are at play that have hitherto lacked theoretical analysis and empirical validation. Specifically, it expands on the understanding of how public health policy decisions are made when there is a weak evidential base and where multiple interpretations, power dynamics and values are brought to bear on issues of risk and uncertainty. The aim of the paper is to understand the role that power and expertise play in shaping public health risk communication within policy-related debates. By drawing on insight from a range of literatures, the paper argues that there several interacting factors that shape how a particular narrative gains prominence within a wider set of perspectives and how the arguments and findings associated with that perspective become amplified within the context of policy choices. These findings are conceptualised into a new model – a policy evaluation risk communication (PERC) framework – and are then tested using the Electronic cigarette debate as a case study

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Measuring “Awareness of Environmental Consequences”: Two Scales and Two Interpretations

Moderate or poor reliabilities, worrisome correlation patterns and ambiguous dimensionality raise questions about the awareness of consequences scale being a valid measure of egoistic, social-altruistic and biospheric value orientations. These results may, however, indicate something else. An exploratory analysis performed on three samples collected from the general public provides evidence for a reinterpretation of the scale. We believe the concepts of egoistic, social and biospheric value orientations remain important as a potential explanation of behaviour. However, our results imply that whether people cognitively organise their beliefs in this way when considering adverse environmental consequences requires a different approach from the current awareness of consequences scale. The evidence shows the current scale must be reinterpreted as a measure of concern over the positive and negative consequences of environmental action and inaction.environmental beliefs, value orientations, environmental scales, egoistic, altruistic, biospheric, value-belief-norm model

Oh no, it’s raining! A study of how information in online weather reports is interpreted, integrated, and used in everyday decision-making by laypeople

Different people in different occupations depend on weather forecasts to plan their work and recreational schedules. People with no expertise in meteorology frequently interpret weather forecasts and uncertainty information. These non-experts apply their prior knowledge and experiences in a variety of fields and their abilities to synthesize different types of information to interpret forecasts. Initial studies of communication and the interpretation of forecasts and uncertainty information focused on separate pieces of information rather than the situations of ordinary users. In this study, situations of typical users are simulated to increase the ecological validity when examining how different user groups interpret, integrate, and use information from online weather reports in their everyday decision-making. First, qualitative interviews of twenty-one Norwegians from five different user groups (farmers, exterior painters, tour guides, and upper secondary school teachers and students) were conducted. Second, sixteen upper secondary school students participated in an eye-tracking study. Immediately after this study, the participants were asked to verbalize their thoughts (think out loud) when viewing the gaze data. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to ensure the collection of rich data. In this study, the participants were given weather forecasts from one selected online weather report (www.Yr.no), which served as a basis for both data collections. The verbal data were analyzed by assigning codes and categories to the transcribed statements. The main findings of the study are as follows: a) For each representation, such as tables, diagrams, numbers and symbols, a set of strengths and functions (affordances) was ascribed and exploited by the participants. b) Only part of the representations that provided forecast and uncertainty information at the website was used by each participant. c) Nuances such as color and the number of drops were important in the interpretations of the weather symbols and forecast uncertainty, which were sometimes interpreted differently than intended by the forecast provider. d) Prior knowledge affected the participants’ interpretations and even superseded the given information in apparent conflicts. e) The interpretations were also affected by the integration of information from different representations, which was performed to create a dynamic picture of the weather and to control and compare information. f) The decision-making process influenced the construction of different reading paths and the selections of representations in different situations. g) The participants used a varying amount of information in their decision-making; their selection was dependent on the importance of the envisaged activity and the weather conditions for the day. h) Additionally, in situations in which the participants had a lack of experiences, this lack provides a possible explanation for why part of the information was occasionally not understood and used. i) Evaluations of weather dynamics and the degree of certainty in the forecast were disregarded when quick decisions were made. Some implications of the findings for communication and future research are as follows: a) Providers of online weather reports should take care in the details of the information they present because such nuances may be interpreted as substantial information. b) Uncertainty information should be easy to understand and use, and the benefits of this information should be clear to enable users to interpret the degree of certainty as intended. c) Information communicated in online weather reports should enable the use of different decision-processes. d) A comprehensive use of multimodal information in communication appears to be an advantage when information is used by different users in different situations. e) However, some users should be guided and supported to facilitate the interpretation, integration, and use of information from multiple representations in situations where they lack experiences and/or aim for an elaborate decision process. f) One possibility to support persons that lack experiences and have low situation awareness might be to provide consequences and impacts of forecast weather. g) Notably, forecast providers should take into account the needs of the forecast users. h) To achieve this goal, users’ needs should be addressed in a coproduction process. i) Future studies should investigate the situations of typical users and different decision-making processes

Coping with Problems of Understanding in Interorganizational Relationships: Using Formalization as a Means to make Sense

Research into the management of interorganizational relationships has hitherto primarily focused on problems of coordination, control and to a lesser extent, legitimacy. In this article, we assert that partners cooperating in such relationships are also confronted with ‘problems of understanding’. Such problems arise from differences between partners in terms of culture, experience, structure and industry, and from the uncertainty and ambiguity that participants in interorganizational relationships experience in early stages of collaboration. Building on Karl Weick’s theory of sensemaking, we advance that participants in interorganizational relationships use formalization as a means to make sense of their partners, the interorganizational relationships in which they are engaged and the contexts in which these are embedded so as to diminish problems of understanding. We offer a systematic overview of the mechanisms through which formalization facilitates sensemaking, including: (1) focusing participants’ attention; (2) provoking articulation, deliberation and reflection; (3) instigating and maintaining interaction; and (4) reducing judgment errors and individual biases, and diminishing incompleteness and inconsistency of cognitive representations. In this way, the article contributes to a better understanding of the relationships between formalization and sensemaking in collaborative relationships, and it carries Karl Weick’s thinking on the relationship between sensemaking and organizing forward in the context of interorganizational management.Formalization;Sensemaking;Interorganizational Cooperation;Understanding

The constitution of risk communication in advanced liberal societies

This article aims to bring to the fore some of the underlying rationales that inform common conceptions of the constitution of risk communication in academic and policy communities. ‘Normative’, ‘instrumental’ and ‘substantive’ imperatives typically employed in the utilisation of risk communication are first outlined. In light of these considerations a theoretical scheme is subsequently devised leading to the articulation of four fundamental ‘idealised’ models of risk communication termed the ‘risk message’ model, the ‘risk dialogue’ model, the ‘risk field’ model and the ‘risk government’ model respectively. It is contended that the diverse conceptual foundations underlying the orientation of each model suggest a further need for a more contextualised view of risk communication that takes account not only of the strengths and limitations of different formulations and functions of risk communication, but also the underlying knowledge/power dynamics that underlie its constitution. In particular it is hoped that the reflexive theoretical understanding presented here will help to bring some much needed conceptual clarity to academic and policy discourses about the use and utility of risk communication in advanced liberal societies

On the treatment of uncertainty in innovation projects

Innovations encounter a relatively high level of uncertainty in their lifecycle path. As innovations are about implementing a new idea, they suffer from a shortage or lack of knowledge dependent on and directly proportional to the radical quality of novelty. They lack information to predict the future and face (high) uncertainty in the background knowledge used for the risk assessment. Incomplete information causes innovation risk analysts to assign subjective assumptions to simplify system models developed for innovation risk assessment. Subjective and non-subjective assumptions as uncertain assumptions are part of the background knowledge and source of uncertainty. This thesis tries to assess and treat innovation assumptions uncertainties by proposing a hybrid model which comprises the semi-quantitative risk assessment (SQRA) approach, extended semi-quantitative risk assessment (EQRA) approach, and knowledge dimension method. SQRA and EQRA highlight the criticality of assumptions and present a systematic approach to assess and treat assumption uncertainties. SQRA applies probabilistic analysis to conduct an assumptions risk assessment, and EQRA provides innovation managers with guidance on developing strategies to follow up uncertain assumptions over the process implementation. The knowledge dimension technique evaluates and communicates the strength of background knowledge applied in assumptions risk assessment to innovation decision-makers expressing whole uncertainty aspects in the background knowledge (assumptions, data, models, and expert judgment). The model can effectively contribute to innovation risks and uncertainties management during the project execution.2021-09-29T16:30:09

A critical evaluation of the use of interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) in health psychology

With the burgeoning use of qualitative methods in health research, criteria for judging their value become increasingly necessary. Interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) is a distinctive approach to conducting qualitative research being used with increasing frequency in published studies. A systematic literature review was undertaken to identify published papers in the area of health psychology employing IPA. A total of 52 articles are reviewed here in terms of the following: methods of data collection, sampling, assessing wider applicability of research and adherence to the theoretical foundations and procedures of IPA. IPA seems applicable and useful in a wide variety of research topics. The lack of attention sometimes afforded to the interpretative facet of the approach is discussed