Incident duration time prediction using a supervised topic modeling method

Precisely predicting the duration time of an incident is one of the most prominent components to implement proactive management strategies for traffic congestions caused by an incident. This thesis presents a novel method to predict incident duration time in a timely manner by using an emerging supervised topic modeling method. Based on Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, this thesis performs semantic text analyses with text-based incident dataset to train the model. The model is trained with actual 1,466 incident records collected by Korea Expressway Corporation from 2016-2019 by applying a Labeled Latent Dirichlet Allocation(L-LDA) approach. For the training, this thesis divides the incident duration times into two groups: shorter than 2-hour and longer than 2-hour, based on the MUTCD incident management guideline. The model is tested with randomly selected incident records that have not been used for the training. The results demonstrate that the overall prediction accuracies are approximately 74% and 82% for the incidents shorter and longer than 2-hour, respectively

TITAN: A Spatiotemporal Feature Learning Framework for Traffic Incident Duration Prediction

Critical incident stages identification and reasonable prediction of traffic incident duration are essential in traffic incident management. In this paper, we propose a traffic incident duration prediction model that simultaneously predicts the impact of the traffic incidents and identifies the critical groups of temporal features via a multi-task learning framework. First, we formulate a sparsity optimization problem that extracts low-level temporal features based on traffic speed readings and then generalizes higher level features as phases of traffic incidents. Second, we propose novel constraints on feature similarity exploiting prior knowledge about the spatial connectivity of the road network to predict the incident duration. The proposed problem is challenging to solve due to the orthogonality constraints, non-convexity objective, and non-smoothness penalties. We develop an algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) framework to solve the proposed formulation. Extensive experiments and comparisons to other models on real-world traffic data and traffic incident records justify the efficacy of our model

Self-Learning Algorithms for Intrusion Detection and Prevention Systems (IDPS)

Today, there is an increased risk to data privacy and information security due to cyberattacks that compromise data reliability and accessibility. New machine learning models are needed to detect and prevent these cyberattacks. One application of these models is cybersecurity threat detection and prevention systems that can create a baseline of a network\u27s traffic patterns to detect anomalies without needing pre-labeled data; thus, enabling the identification of abnormal network events as threats. This research explored algorithms that can help automate anomaly detection on an enterprise network using Canadian Institute for Cybersecurity data. This study demonstrates that Neural Networks with Bayesian linear functions as hidden layers display autonomous learning capabilities and are a highly accurate anomaly detection method that can be implemented in cyberattack detection and intrusion prevention with low incidence of false positives

DISPATCHING AND RELOCATION OF EMERGENCY VEHICLES ON FREEWAYS: THEORIES AND APPLICATIONS

Resource allocation decisions are made to serve the current emergency without knowing which future emergency will be occurring. Different ordered combinations of emergencies result in different performance outcomes. Even though future decisions can be anticipated with scenarios, previous models follow an assumption that events over a time interval are independent. This dissertation follows an assumption that events are interdependent, because speed reduction and rubbernecking due to an initial incident provoke secondary incidents. The misconception that secondary incidents are not common has resulted in overlooking a look-ahead concept. This dissertation is a pioneer in relaxing the structural assumptions of independency during the assignment of emergency vehicles. When an emergency is detected and a request arrives, an appropriate emergency vehicle is immediately dispatched. We provide tools for quantifying impacts based on fundamentals of incident occurrences through identification, prediction, and interpretation of secondary incidents. A proposed online dispatching model minimizes the cost of moving the next emergency unit, while making the response as close to optimal as possible. Using the look-ahead concept, the online model flexibly re-computes the solution, basing future decisions on present requests. We introduce various online dispatching strategies with visualization of the algorithms, and provide insights on their differences in behavior and solution quality. The experimental evidence indicates that the algorithm works well in practice. After having served a designated request, the available and/or remaining vehicles are relocated to a new base for the next emergency. System costs will be excessive if delay regarding dispatching decisions is ignored when relocating response units. This dissertation presents an integrated method with a principle of beginning with a location phase to manage initial incidents and progressing through a dispatching phase to manage the stochastic occurrence of next incidents. Previous studies used the frequency of independent incidents and ignored scenarios in which two incidents occurred within proximal regions and intervals. The proposed analytical model relaxes the structural assumptions of Poisson process (independent increments) and incorporates evolution of primary and secondary incident probabilities over time. The mathematical model overcomes several limiting assumptions of the previous models, such as no waiting-time, returning rule to original depot, and fixed depot. The temporal locations flexible with look-ahead are compared with current practice that locates units in depots based on Poisson theory. A linearization of the formulation is presented and an efficient heuristic algorithm is implemented to deal with a large-scale problem in real-time

Proactive Assessment of Accident Risk to Improve Safety on a System of Freeways, Research Report 11-15

This report describes the development and evaluation of real-time crash risk-assessment models for four freeway corridors: U.S. Route 101 NB (northbound) and SB (southbound) and Interstate 880 NB and SB. Crash data for these freeway segments for the 16-month period from January 2010 through April 2011 are used to link historical crash occurrences with real-time traffic patterns observed through loop-detector data. \u27The crash risk-assessment models are based on a binary classification approach (crash and non-crash outcomes), with traffic parameters measured at surrounding vehicle detection station (VDS) locations as the independent variables. The analysis techniques used in this study are logistic regression and classification trees. Prior to developing the models, some data-related issues such as data cleaning and aggregation were addressed. The modeling efforts revealed that the turbulence resulting from speed variation is significantly associated with crash risk on the U.S. 101 NB corridor. The models estimated with data from U.S. 101 NB were evaluated on the basis of their classification performance, not only on U.S. 101 NB, but also on the other three freeway segments for transferability assessment. It was found that the predictive model derived from one freeway can be readily applied to other freeways, although the classification performance decreases. The models that transfer best to other roadways were determined to be those that use the least number of VDSs–that is, those that use one upstream or downstream station rather than two or three.\ The classification accuracy of the models is discussed in terms of how the models can be used for real-time crash risk assessment. The models can be applied to developing and testing variable speed limits (VSLs) and ramp-metering strategies that proactively attempt to reduce crash risk

Arterial incident duration prediction using a bi-level framework of extreme gradient-tree boosting

Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting the accident duration on arterial road networks in Sydney, based on operational requirements of incident clearance target which is less than 45 minutes. Using incident baseline information, we first deploy a classification method using various ensemble tree models in order to predict whether a new incident will be cleared in less than 45min or not. If the incident was classified as short-term, then various regression models are developed for predicting the actual incident duration in minutes by incorporating various traffic flow features. After outlier removal and intensive model hyper-parameter tuning through randomized search and cross-validation, we show that the extreme gradient boost approach outperformed all models, including the gradient-boosted decision-trees by almost 53%. Finally, we perform a feature importance evaluation for incident duration prediction and show that the best prediction results are obtained when leveraging the real-time traffic flow in vicinity road sections to the reported accident location

A Hybrid Approach Based on Variational Mode Decomposition for Analyzing and Predicting Urban Travel Speed

Predicting travel speeds on urban road networks is a challenging subject due to its uncertainty stemming from travel demand, geometric condition, traffic signals, and other exogenous factors. This uncertainty appears as nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and volatility in traffic data, and it also creates a spatiotemporal heterogeneity of link travel speed by interacting with neighbor links. In this study, we propose a hybrid model using variational mode decomposition (VMD) to investigate and mitigate the uncertainty of urban travel speeds. The VMD allows the travel speed data to be divided into orthogonal and oscillatory sub-signals, called modes. The regular components are extracted as the low-frequency modes, and the irregular components presenting uncertainty are transformed into a combination of modes, which is more predictable than the original uncertainty. For the prediction, the VMD decomposes the travel speed data into modes, and these modes are predicted and summed to represent the predicted travel speed. The evaluation results on urban road networks show that, the proposed hybrid model outperforms the benchmark models both in the congested and in the overall conditions. The improvement in performance increases significantly over specific link-days, which generally are hard to predict. To explain the significant variance of the prediction performance according to each link and each day, the correlation analysis between the properties of modes and the performance of the model are conducted. The results on correlation analysis show that the more variance of nondaily pattern is explained through the modes, the easier it was to predict the speed. Based on the results, discussions on the interpretation on the correlation analysis and future research are presented. Document type: Articl

Spatio-temporal traffic anomaly detection for urban networks

Urban road networks are often affected by disruptions such as accidents and roadworks, giving rise to congestion and delays, which can, in turn, create a wide range of negative impacts to the economy, environment, safety and security. Accurate detection of the onset of traffic anomalies, specifically Recurrent Congestion (RC) and Nonrecurrent Congestion (NRC) in the traffic networks, is an important ITS function to facilitate proactive intervention measures to reduce the level of severity of congestion. A substantial body of literature is dedicated to models with varying levels of complexity that attempt to identify such anomalies. Given the complexity of the problem, however, very less effort is dedicated to the development of methods that attempt to detect traffic anomalies using spatio-temporal features. Driven both by the recent advances in deep learning techniques and the development of Traffic Incident Management Systems (TIMS), the aim of this research is to develop novel traffic anomaly detection models that can incorporate both spatial and temporal traffic information to detect traffic anomalies at a network level. This thesis first reviews the state of the art in traffic anomaly detection techniques, including the existing methods and emerging machine learning and deep learning methods, before identifying the gaps in the current understanding of traffic anomaly and its detection. One of the problems in terms of adapting the deep learning models to traffic anomaly detection is the translation of time series traffic data from multiple locations to the format necessary for the deep learning model to learn the spatial and temporal features effectively. To address this challenging problem and build a systematic traffic anomaly detection method at a network level, this thesis proposes a methodological framework consisting of (a) the translation layer (which is designed to translate the time series traffic data from multiple locations over the road network into a desired format with spatial and temporal features), (b) detection methods and (c) localisation. This methodological framework is subsequently tested for early RC detection and NRC detection. Three translation layers including connectivity matrix, geographical grid translation and spatial temporal translation are presented and evaluated for both RC and NRC detection. The early RC detection approach is a deep learning based method that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The NRC detection, on the other hand, involves only the application of the CNN. The performance of the proposed approach is compared against other conventional congestion detection methods, using a comprehensive evaluation framework that includes metrics such as detection rates and false positive rates, and the sensitivity analysis of time windows as well as prediction horizons. The conventional congestion detection methods used for the comparison include Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest and Gradient Boost Classifier, all of which are commonly used in the literature. Real-world traffic data from the City of Bath are used for the comparative analysis of RC, while traffic data in conjunction with incident data extracted from Central London are used for NRC detection. The results show that while the connectivity matrix may be capable of extracting features of a small network, the increased sparsity in the matrix in a large network reduces its effectiveness in feature learning compared to geographical grid translation. The results also indicate that the proposed deep learning method demonstrates superior detection accuracy compared to alternative methods and that it can detect recurrent congestion as early as one hour ahead with acceptable accuracy. The proposed method is capable of being implemented within a real-world ITS system making use of traffic sensor data, thereby providing a practically useful tool for road network managers to manage traffic proactively. In addition, the results demonstrate that a deep learning-based approach may improve the accuracy of incident detection and locate traffic anomalies precisely, especially in a large urban network. Finally, the framework is further tested for robustness in terms of network topology, sensor faults and missing data. The robustness analysis demonstrates that the proposed traffic anomaly detection approaches are transferable to different sizes of road networks, and that they are robust in the presence of sensor faults and missing data.Open Acces

Evaluation of Traffic Incident Timeline to Quantify the Performance of Incident Management Strategies

Transportation agencies are introducing new strategies and techniques that will improve traffic incident management. Apart from other indicators, agencies measure the performance of the strategies by evaluating the incidents timeline. An effective strategy has to reduce the length of the incident timeline. An incident timeline comprises various stages in the incident management procedure, starting when the incident was detected, and ending when there is the recovery of normal traffic conditions. This thesis addresses three issues that are related to the traffic incident timeline and the incident management strategies. First, co-location of responding agencies has not been investigated as other incident management measures. Co-location of incident responders affects the incident timeline, but there is a scarcity of literature on the magnitude of the effects. Evaluation of the co-location strategy is reflected by the response and verification durations because its effectiveness relies on improving communication between agencies. Investigation of the response and verification duration of incidents, before and after operations of a co-located Traffic Management Center (TMC) is done by using hazard-based models. Results indicate that the incident type, percentage of the lane closure, number of responders, incident severity, detection methods, and day-of-the-week influence the verification duration for both the before- and after- period. Similarly, incident type, lane closure, number of responders, incident severity, time-of-the-day, and detection method influence the response duration for both study periods. The before and after comparison shows significant improvements in the response duration due to co-location of incident response agencies. Second, the incident clearance duration may not necessarily reflect how different types of incidents and various factors affect traffic conditions. The duration at which the incident influences traffic conditions could vary – shorter than the incident duration for some incidents and longer for others. This study introduces a performance measure called incident impact duration and demonstrates a method that was used for estimating it. Also, this study investigated the effects of using incident impact duration compared to the traditionally incident clearance duration in incident modeling. Using hazard-based models, the study analyzed factors that affect the estimated incident impact duration and the incident clearance duration. Results indicate that incident detection methods, the number of responders, Traffic Management Center (TMC) operations, traffic conditions, towing and emergency services influence the duration of an incident. Third, elements of the incident timeline before the clearance duration have been overlooked as factors that influence the clearance duration. Incident elements before the clearance duration include verification time, dispatch duration, and the travel time of responders to the incident scene. This study investigated the influence of incident timeline elements before clearance on the extent of the clearance duration. Also, this study analyzed the impact of other spatial and temporal attributes on the clearance duration. The analysis used a Cox regression model that is estimated using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalization method. LASSO enables variable selection from incidents data with a high number of covariates by automatically and simultaneously selecting variables and estimating the coefficients. Results suggest that verification duration, response travel duration, the percentage of lane closure, incident type, the severity of an incident, detection method, and crash location influence the clearance duration