CALIBRATING THE INTERCITY HIGH SPEED RAIL (HSR) CHOICE MODEL FOR THE RICHMOND-WASHINGTON, D.C. CORRIDOR

This study aims to quantitatively investigate how the introduction of high-speed rail (HSR) influences traveler’s choice behavior. The study focuses on recalibrating the Florida-based HSR choice model to fit the intercity travel northward from Richmond, Virginia to Washington, D.C. The model takes a nested logit formulation and includes a binary marginal choice submodel to project travel behavior between aggregate ground and individual air transportation modes, and a trinomial conditional mode choice model to examine the travel behavior patterns within three ground transportation submodes: auto, bus, and rail. The data collected is based upon the base year 2008 market conditions, and the recalibrated model is used to forecast the year 2014 HSR levels of service. Empirical results show that reduced travel cost and other impedance factors stand to increase utility for HSR, even though the auto will continue to be the dominant travel mode.high speed rail, nested logit model, mode choice, Richmond, Washington D.C.

Sustainable Mobility Policy Analysis Using Hybrid Choice Models: Is It the Right Choice?

In recent years, sustainable mobility policy analysis has used Hybrid Choice Models (HCM) by incorporating latent variables in the mode choice models. However, the impact on policy analysis outcomes has not yet been determined with certainty. This paper aims to measure the effect of HCM on sustainable mobility policy analysis compared to traditional models without latent variables. To this end, we performed mode choice research in the city of Santander, Spain. We identified two latent variables -Safety and Comfort- and incorporated them as explanatory variables in the HCM. Later, we conducted a sensitivity study for sustainable mobility policy analysis by simulating different policy scenarios. We found that the HCM amplified the impact of sustainable mobility policies on the modal shares, and provided an excessive reaction in the individuals' travel behavior. Thus, the HCM overrated the impact of sustainable mobility policies on the modal switch. Likewise, for all of the mode choice models, policies that promoted public transportation were more effective in increasing bus modal shares than those that penalized private vehicles. In short, we concluded that sustainable mobility policy analysis should use HCM prudently, and should not set them as the best models beforehand

Industrial Organization Effects of High-Speed Rail Service Introduction in Korea

The goal of this thesis is to investigate changes in consumers' choices and their welfare due to the introduction of new products, taking firms' reactions into consideration. I perform empirical analyses using Korean transportation industry data to evaluate the impact of high-speed train introduction on passenger travel. This work adds to the existing literature by considering the changes in product characteristics or the set of products offered to consumers after new product introduction, and investigates how those changes affect consumer welfare. The analysis provides a rich insight into the transportation industry and the relationship between the modes of transportation which contributes to enhancing the quality of government's policies regarding related industries. The first part of my thesis investigates the changes in utilization of different modes of transportation in Korea after the introduction of high-speed train using a fixed effect model and a difference in differences model. My results show the significant impact of the introduction of high-speed train on the entire transportation industry and provide evidence that modes of transportation not only compete but also complement each other. After high-speed trains were introduced in 2004, inter-city bus and airline industries lost their customers in routes where they directly competed with high-speed rails, while the numbers of rail passengers increased. The losses in the airline industry were particularly severe. On the other hand, the passengers of other rail lines for some routes not connected by high-speed trains but branch routes of high-speed rail lines, increased. The increase was perhaps induced by the consumers who traveled on those routes in order to reach high-speed rail lines. After the introduction of high-speed trains, other changes such as service schedule adjustment ensued. The results from the reduced form models show only the overall impact of high-speed train introduction, but they cannot disentangle the impact of high-speed train introduction itself from that of ensuing changes. In order to separately examine the impact of high-speed train introduction and that of ensuing changes in product characteristics, I estimate a structural model of the demand for travel that incorporates consumers' heterogeneous preferences over travel schedules into a standard discrete choice model. The model treats the rail company's choice of train schedules as endogenous in order to take the firm's choices of product line into account. My results show that consumers are affected differentially by both the introduction of high-speed trains and the ensuing changes in train schedules. The welfare implications for consumers depend on the availability of high-speed trains in their choice set. Consumers who travel between two cities that are connected by high-speed trains are the main beneficiaries of the new service. However, reductions in schedule frequencies of non-high-speed trains operating along high-speed rail lines, generate losses that offset 50% of gains even for these consumers. Travelers on these lines who are not served by high-speed trains only experience substantial losses due to reduced schedule frequencies. Consumers who travel between two cities that are not located along high-speed rail lines gain from increased train frequencies, and the gains make up for the losses in other markets without high-speed trains. These results highlight the importance of accounting for changes in existing products when analyzing the impact of new product entry on consumers

Optimizing the selection of sustainable transport technologies at regional bus companies with a spatially explicit approach

Buses account for almost 60% of the total public transport offer in Europe, and most of them are diesel fuelled. Regional transport companies, pressed by governments to introduce zero-emission buses to reduce air pollution, need tools to identify optimal solutions. In literature, few models combine least cost planning and emission assessment for multiple technologies. In this paper, an existing localisation model for electric urban transport is adapted to match the needs of regional transport and to evaluate well-to-wheel carbon emissions as well as TTW airborne emissions of NOx and PM10. The model is applied to a real case study of a regional bus transport company in North Eastern Italy. Electric buses with relatively small (60 kWh) batteries are identified as the best compromise to reduce CO2eq emissions, however, under current economic conditions in Italy, their life cycle cost is still much higher than those of Euro VI diesel

Options for reshaping the railway

In many countries the mismatch between what the railways offer and what the customers want has caused significant economic inefficiency and severe financial strains for the railways and their government owners. The concept of the railway as a monolithic entity is so strong in many countries as to be a roadblock against reshaping the railway. The authors explore four options which can be used to reshape the railways. First is the lines of business option which improves accountability and responsiveness to markets. The second is the competitive access option which introduces intramodal competition in selected markets, while maintaining unitary control over most railway operations. The third is the"wholesaler"option which would accomplish an excellent marketing job, but the actual operation would remain in monolithic hands. Finally there is the"toll rail enterprise"option which comes closest to reflecting a theoretical model of marketing effectiveness, however it would generate potential operating conflicts and higher transaction costs. The authors show that one generalization holds true in all circumstances: a monolithic railway does not function well in a market economy in competition with privately owned, properly regulated competitors - especially trucking. The authors point out that solutions will vary, but the universal objective as an economy becomes more market driven is to make the railway more market sensitive.Railways Transport,Roads&Highways,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,ICT Policy and Strategies

A spatially explicit optimization model for the selection of sustainable transport technologies at regional bus companies

Buses account for almost 60% of the total public transport services in Europe, and most of the vehicles are diesel fuelled. Regional transport administrators, under pressure by governments to introduce zero-emission buses, require analytical tools for identifying optimal solutions. In literature, few models combine location analysis, least cost planning, and emission assessment, taking into account multiple technologies which might achieve emission reduction goals. In this paper, an existing optimal location model for electric urban transport is adapted to match the needs of regional transport. The model, which aims to evaluate well-to-wheel carbon emissions as well as airborne emissions of NOx and PM10, is applied to a real case study of a regional bus transport service in North Eastern Italy. The optimization has identified electric buses with relatively small (60 kWh) batteries as the best compromise for reducing carbon equivalent emissions; however, under current economic conditions in Italy, the life cycle cost of such vehicles is still much higher than those of Euro VI diesel buses. In this context, our model helps in identifying ways to minimize infrastructure costs and to efficiently allocate expensive resources such as electric buses to the routes where the maximum environmental benefit can be achieved

Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling

Book of abstracts of the 24th Euro Working Group on Transportation Meeting

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