5 research outputs found
A hybrid model for mapping simplified seismic response via a GIS-metamodel approach
In earthquake-prone areas, site seismic response due to lithostratigraphic sequence plays a key role in seismic hazard assessment. A hybrid model, consisting of GIS and metamodel (model of model) procedures, was introduced aimed at estimating the 1-D spatial seismic site response in accordance with spatial variability of sediment parameters. Inputs and outputs are provided and processed by means of an appropriate GIS model, named GIS Cubic Model (GCM). This consists of a block-layered parametric structure aimed at resolving a predicted metamodel by means of pixel to pixel vertical computing. The metamodel, opportunely calibrated, is able to emulate the classic shape of the spectral acceleration response in relation to the main physical parameters that characterize the spectrum itself. Therefore, via the GCM structure and the metamodel, the hybrid model provides maps of normalized acceleration response spectra. The hybrid model was applied and tested on the built-up area of the San Giorgio del Sannio village, located in a high-risk seismic zone of southern Italy. Efficiency tests showed a good correspondence between the spectral values resulting from the proposed approach and the 1-D physical computational models. Supported by lithology and geophysical data and corresponding accurate interpretation regarding modelling, the hybrid model can be an efficient tool in assessing urban planning seismic hazard/risk. © Author(s) 2014
Multihazard susceptibility assessment: A case study – Municipality of Štrpce (Southern Serbia)
The municipality of Å trpce (Southern Serbia) is
an area located within Å ar Mountain National Park, which
is of great ecological importance. Due to the vicinity of
settlements, it is necessary to analyze the terrain's susceptibility
to natural hazards. The main goal of this research
was to determine locations that are highly vulnerable at
times of natural hazards (such as earthquakes, erosion,
torrential flooding, snow avalanches, and forest fires).
The first step in this research was to analyze seismic
hazards for a 475 years return period (VII–VIII MCS for
the observed area), which was possible by means of
Geographic Information Systems. The second step was to
determine the intensity of erosion and total sediment production
using the Erosion Potential Model. The third step
was related to the analysis of the potential of torrential
floods using the Flash Flood Potential Index. The Avalanches
Potential Index method was used as the fourth step. The fifth
step included the analysis of a terrain susceptibility to the
occurrence of forest fires. Following the five criteria analysis,
weight coefficients were assigned to each of the analyzed parameters
by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which
provided results of the total susceptibility to natural hazards of
the territory of Å trpce. Results indicated that over 45% of the
municipality is highly or very highly susceptible to various
natural hazards. This article represents a significant step
toward a better understanding of natural hazards and it
provides a unique knowledge basis for establishing the
management and mitigation guidelines and measures,
not only within the researched area but at regional and
national levels as well