Locally Adaptive Dynamic Networks

Our focus is on realistically modeling and forecasting dynamic networks of face-to-face contacts among individuals. Important aspects of such data that lead to problems with current methods include the tendency of the contacts to move between periods of slow and rapid changes, and the dynamic heterogeneity in the actors' connectivity behaviors. Motivated by this application, we develop a novel method for Locally Adaptive DYnamic (LADY) network inference. The proposed model relies on a dynamic latent space representation in which each actor's position evolves in time via stochastic differential equations. Using a state space representation for these stochastic processes and P\'olya-gamma data augmentation, we develop an efficient MCMC algorithm for posterior inference along with tractable procedures for online updating and forecasting of future networks. We evaluate performance in simulation studies, and consider an application to face-to-face contacts among individuals in a primary school

When is a Network a Network? Multi-Order Graphical Model Selection in Pathways and Temporal Networks

We introduce a framework for the modeling of sequential data capturing pathways of varying lengths observed in a network. Such data are important, e.g., when studying click streams in information networks, travel patterns in transportation systems, information cascades in social networks, biological pathways or time-stamped social interactions. While it is common to apply graph analytics and network analysis to such data, recent works have shown that temporal correlations can invalidate the results of such methods. This raises a fundamental question: when is a network abstraction of sequential data justified? Addressing this open question, we propose a framework which combines Markov chains of multiple, higher orders into a multi-layer graphical model that captures temporal correlations in pathways at multiple length scales simultaneously. We develop a model selection technique to infer the optimal number of layers of such a model and show that it outperforms previously used Markov order detection techniques. An application to eight real-world data sets on pathways and temporal networks shows that it allows to infer graphical models which capture both topological and temporal characteristics of such data. Our work highlights fallacies of network abstractions and provides a principled answer to the open question when they are justified. Generalizing network representations to multi-order graphical models, it opens perspectives for new data mining and knowledge discovery algorithms.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, companion python package pathpy available on gitHu

Interdependent policy instrument preferences: a two-mode network approach

In policymaking, actors are likely to take the preferences of others into account when strategically positioning themselves. However, there is a lack of research that conceives of policy preferences as an interdependent system. In order to analyse interdependencies, we link actors to their policy preferences in water protection, which results in an actor-instrument network. As actors exhibit multiple preferences, a complex two-mode network between actors and policies emerges. We analyse whether actors exhibit interdependent preference profiles given shared policy objectives or social interactions among them. By fitting an exponential random graph model to the actor-instrument network, we find considerable clustering, meaning that actors tend to exhibit preferences for multiple policy instruments in common. Actors tend to exhibit interdependent policy preferences when they are interconnected, that is, they collaborate with each other. By contrast, actors are less likely to share policy preferences when a conflict line divides them

The Vadalog System: Datalog-based Reasoning for Knowledge Graphs

Over the past years, there has been a resurgence of Datalog-based systems in the database community as well as in industry. In this context, it has been recognized that to handle the complex knowl\-edge-based scenarios encountered today, such as reasoning over large knowledge graphs, Datalog has to be extended with features such as existential quantification. Yet, Datalog-based reasoning in the presence of existential quantification is in general undecidable. Many efforts have been made to define decidable fragments. Warded Datalog+/- is a very promising one, as it captures PTIME complexity while allowing ontological reasoning. Yet so far, no implementation of Warded Datalog+/- was available. In this paper we present the Vadalog system, a Datalog-based system for performing complex logic reasoning tasks, such as those required in advanced knowledge graphs. The Vadalog system is Oxford's contribution to the VADA research programme, a joint effort of the universities of Oxford, Manchester and Edinburgh and around 20 industrial partners. As the main contribution of this paper, we illustrate the first implementation of Warded Datalog+/-, a high-performance Datalog+/- system utilizing an aggressive termination control strategy. We also provide a comprehensive experimental evaluation.Comment: Extended version of VLDB paper <https://doi.org/10.14778/3213880.3213888

Facilitating Transformations in a Human Genome Project Database

Human Genome Project databases present a confluence of interesting database challenges: rapid schema and data evolution, complex data entry and constraint management, and the need to integrate multiple data sources and software systems which range over a wide variety of models and formats. While these challenges are not necessarily unique to biological databases, their combination, intensity and complexity are unusual and make automated solutions imperative. We illustrate these problems in the context of the Human Genome Database for Chromosome 22 (Chr22DB), and describe a new approach to a solution for these problems, by means of a deductive language for expressing database transformations and constraints